13517 Sawmill St · Parrish, FL 34219

$299,729

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,455 sqft · SingleFamily · 26 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $304k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to The Holly at 13517 Sawmill Street in Firethorn! This beautifully designed home in the Firethorn community starts with an inviting open concept living space. Just inside the foyer, the kitchen overlooks the dining area and great room, creating an easy and welcoming flow for everyday living. The great room opens to the patio, offering seamless indoor and outdoor living that is ideal for enjoying warm Florida days. The laundry room is conveniently located between the kitchen and the garage. Two secondary bedrooms share a full bathroom, while the primary suite is privately tucked away at the back of the home and features dual closets that add extra storage and everyday convenience to

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Resort style pool
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACE
• KITCHEN OVERLOOKS DINING AREA
• GREAT ROOM OPENS TO PATIO
• SEAMLESS INDOOR OUTDOOR LIVING
• RESORT STYLE POOL
• FITNESS CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 13517 Sawmill St, Parrish FL 34219; Status: Active; Last modified: 2026-05-21
• Financial info: List price $299,729

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (spec)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,455

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home, Plan name: Holly

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-285/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $296k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,187 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.34%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $304,095
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13819 Sawmill St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+3%)	1mo	$303,000	$202	84
13126 Empress Jewel Trl	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-0%)	10mo	$299,900	$207	74
13139 Empress Jewel Trl	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-0%)	12mo	$309,900	$214	70
13146 Empress Jewel Trl	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-0%)	12mo	$314,900	$217	70
12414 Sweet Angel Aura Way Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-0%)	13mo	$314,900	$217	64
13241 Sunset Sapphire Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-0%)	19mo	$299,900	$207	64
12442 Radiant Crystal Rose	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+7%)	9mo	$304,250	$196	61
13224 Sunset Sapphire Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-0%)	18mo	$299,900	$207	60
12969 Shining Blue Nile Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+7%)	11mo	$324,900	$209	54
13012 Merlot Sunstone Cv	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+7%)	19mo	$334,900	$215	41
13035 Merlot Sunstone Cv	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+7%)	19mo	$325,900	$210	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-57,640
• Equity at exit: $44,691

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-81,338
• Equity at exit: $25,915

Cash invested: $83,924 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,592 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,572
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,496/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,622

Max offer price $296,288

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $183	-5% $80	+0% $-24	+5% $-127	+10% $-231
Rent	-10% $-229	-5% $-126	+0% $-24	+5% $79	+10% $181
Rate	-1.0pp $127	-0.5pp $52	base $-24	+0.5pp $-101	+1.0pp $-180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,932
• Closing costs: $8,992
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13420 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1767	$2,250	$1.27	4d	1	0.41mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,102
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,789
• − Property taxes: −$4,496
• − Insurance: −$1,499
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,488
• − Management: −$2,488
• − Depreciation: −$8,719
• Taxable loss: −$5,377
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,291
• After-tax cash flow: $1,005/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained single-family home in the Firethorn community offers a modern and inviting interior with good curb appeal. It is ready for a new owner and can be further enhanced with minor updates to boost its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Parrish

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 227,091
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B