8015 Peppercorn St · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$315,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,847 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 2023 0.34 ac lot Est $310k · at est. $62/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Lakes at Black Oak Lonestar Collection, a new home community featuring inspired new homes for sale in Magnolia, TX by Century Communities. Community Amenities include: • Walking trails around lake with fountain feature • Year-Round Splash Pad • Open green space with tables and bench seating • Playground for all ages • Mini soccer field with goal nets • Open air Pavilion with table seating Interior features include open concept plans, spacious kitchens with granite counters throughout, 42 inch cabinets, Whirlpool brand appliances, large walk-in showers, dual vanities in primary bath, luxury vinyl plank flooring in all main living areas, garage door opener, home automation package, tankless water heater, irrigation system and more!

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2023

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-686 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (38.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (26.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tom R Ellisor El (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 492 students, 40% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1621 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.

Recommended offer $193,749 (38.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.34%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $310,296
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8026 Peppercorn St	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,752 (-5%)	2mo	$265,000	$151	82
7950 Alset Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5	1,785 (-3%)	2mo	$299,900	$168	81
8031 Heroes Hall Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5	1,785 (-3%)	0mo	$294,900	$165	79
20 Courageous Side Way	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,708 (-8%)	1mo	$288,990	$169	74
175 Courageous Side Way	0.21mi	4/2.5	1,666 (-10%)	1mo	$279,900	$168	73
7819 Bergamot Cir	0.50mi	4/2.5	1,897 (+3%)	1mo	$299,900	$158	72
7749 Bergamot Cir	0.51mi	4/2.5	1,785 (-3%)	0mo	$289,900	$162	71
209 Valiant Ridge Trl	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,678 (-9%)	2mo	$284,900	$170	64
203 Brazen Forest Trl	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,678 (-9%)	2mo	$279,900	$167	64
7827 Bergamot Cir	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,952 (+6%)	1mo	$299,900	$154	62
7823 Bergamot Cir	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,678 (-9%)	1mo	$284,900	$170	56
7745 Bergamot Cir	0.50mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,678 (-9%)	1mo	$284,900	$170	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $122,005
• Equity at exit: $283,777

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.34×
• Total profit: $383,112
• Equity at exit: $611,976

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1621
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,315 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$670 /mo · $8,038/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$62
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $-686

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,184

Max offer price $193,749

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-508	-5% $-597	+0% $-686	+5% $-776	+10% $-865
Rent	-10% $-869	-5% $-778	+0% $-686	+5% $-595	+10% $-504
Rate	-1.0pp $-528	-0.5pp $-606	base $-686	+0.5pp $-768	+1.0pp $-851

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
94 Valiant Ridge Trl Magnolia, TX	5.0	3.0	2517	$2,350	$0.93	45d	1	0.09mi
131 Valiant Ridge Trl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,280	$1.24	0d	1	0.10mi
139 Valiant Ridge Trl Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1511	$1,846	$1.22	14d	1	0.12mi
260 Gallant Front Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,975	$1.40	25d	1	0.23mi
260 Gallant Front Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,000	$1.42	45d	1	0.23mi
8344 Bristle Cone Pine Way Magnolia, TX	5.0	2.5	2200	$2,900	$1.32	45d	1	0.24mi
7910 Alset Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1897	$2,320	$1.22	45d	1	0.27mi
139 Hawkhurst Cir Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2563	$2,950	$1.15	25d	1	0.93mi
146 Black Swan Pl Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2535	$2,495	$0.98	23d	1	1.11mi
3 Peachridge Pl Unit 1 Spring, TX	3.0	2.5	1657	$1,950	$1.18	22d	1	1.29mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 3228 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,320	$1.47	0d	1	1.33mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 3047 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,371	$1.50	12d	1	1.34mi
30000 FM 2978 Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1175	$2,168	$1.84	0d	49	1.36mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 30013 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,360	$1.50	11d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $62 · $744/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $315,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 693-char remark
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $315,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $315,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $324,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $324,900 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $324,900 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $324,900 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    historical $324,900
17. 2023-12-15
    soldstatus Sold 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Welcome to Lakes at Black Oak Lonestar Collection, a new home community featuring inspired new homes for sale in Magnolia, TX by Century Communities. Community Amenities include: • Walking trails around lake with fountain feature • Year-Round Splash Pad • Open green space with tables and bench seating • Playground for all ages • Mini soccer field with goal nets • Open air Pavilion with table seating Interior features include open concept plans, spacious kitchens with granite counters throughout, 42 inch cabinets, Whirlpool brand appliances, large walk-in showers, dual vanities in primary bath, luxury vinyl plank flooring in all main living areas, garage door opener, home automation package, tankless water heater, irrigation system and more!

18. 2023-08-30
    status Pending 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Welcome to Lakes at Black Oak Lonestar Collection, a new home community featuring inspired new homes for sale in Magnolia, TX by Century Communities. Community Amenities include: • Walking trails around lake with fountain feature • Year-Round Splash Pad • Open green space with tables and bench seating • Playground for all ages • Mini soccer field with goal nets • Open air Pavilion with table seating Interior features include open concept plans, spacious kitchens with granite counters throughout, 42 inch cabinets, Whirlpool brand appliances, large walk-in showers, dual vanities in primary bath, luxury vinyl plank flooring in all main living areas, garage door opener, home automation package, tankless water heater, irrigation system and more!

19. 2023-06-29
    price $289,990 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Welcome to Lakes at Black Oak Lonestar Collection, a new home community featuring inspired new homes for sale in Magnolia, TX by Century Communities. Community Amenities include: • Walking trails around lake with fountain feature • Year-Round Splash Pad • Open green space with tables and bench seating • Playground for all ages • Mini soccer field with goal nets • Open air Pavilion with table seating Interior features include open concept plans, spacious kitchens with granite counters throughout, 42 inch cabinets, Whirlpool brand appliances, large walk-in showers, dual vanities in primary bath, luxury vinyl plank flooring in all main living areas, garage door opener, home automation package, tankless water heater, irrigation system and more!

20. 2023-05-03
    price $294,565 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Welcome to Lakes at Black Oak Lonestar Collection, a new home community featuring inspired new homes for sale in Magnolia, TX by Century Communities. Community Amenities include: • Walking trails around lake with fountain feature • Year-Round Splash Pad • Open green space with tables and bench seating • Playground for all ages • Mini soccer field with goal nets • Open air Pavilion with table seating Interior features include open concept plans, spacious kitchens with granite counters throughout, 42 inch cabinets, Whirlpool brand appliances, large walk-in showers, dual vanities in primary bath, luxury vinyl plank flooring in all main living areas, garage door opener, home automation package, tankless water heater, irrigation system and more!

21. 2023-05-02
    listed $291,065 Active 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Welcome to Lakes at Black Oak Lonestar Collection, a new home community featuring inspired new homes for sale in Magnolia, TX by Century Communities. Community Amenities include: • Walking trails around lake with fountain feature • Year-Round Splash Pad • Open green space with tables and bench seating • Playground for all ages • Mini soccer field with goal nets • Open air Pavilion with table seating Interior features include open concept plans, spacious kitchens with granite counters throughout, 42 inch cabinets, Whirlpool brand appliances, large walk-in showers, dual vanities in primary bath, luxury vinyl plank flooring in all main living areas, garage door opener, home automation package, tankless water heater, irrigation system and more!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,038 · $670/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,038 · $670/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$8,038
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,222
• − Management: −$2,222
• − HOA: −$744
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$13,833
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,320
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,916/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Coming Soon $324,900 HARMLS
• 2023-12-15 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-08-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-06-29 Price Changed $289,990 HARMLS
• 2023-05-03 Price Changed $294,565 HARMLS
• 2023-05-02 Listed $291,065 HARMLS

Property tax history

-5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,038 · -5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.