476 Masthead Rd · Mabank, TX 75156

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Land · 46 Days on market

Built 2019 7,501 sqft lot $93/sqft · at area comps Est $115k · at est. ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Harbor Point! This nicely updated manufactured home has been fully remodeled and offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, built-ins, ceiling fans, and a separate utility room. This all-electric home is conveniently located near the lake and features a wonderful front porch perfect for relaxing. Also has a carport.

Key facts

• 7,501 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 2019

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $587 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 3.1% in Mabank — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#446 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Mabank ISD (town): math 47% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #273 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Central El (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 675 students, 64% FRL); Mabank Int (math 49% / reading 34%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 611 students, 66% FRL); Mabank H S (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,111 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.8%/yr); 705 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.87%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,000
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $14,024
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $42,104
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75156

• Rents YoY: -5.8%
• Active inventory: 705
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,591 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $230/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $587

Break-even live

Break-even rent $848

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $652	-5% $619	+0% $587	+5% $423	+10% $383
Rent	-10% $461	-5% $524	+0% $587	+5% $650	+10% $713
Rate	-1.0pp $645	-0.5pp $616	base $587	+0.5pp $557	+1.0pp $527

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
204 Wildflower Dr Gun Barrel City, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,624	$1.20	45d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-05
   price $115,000 319-char remark

   Show marketing remark (319 chars)

   Welcome to Harbor Point! This nicely updated manufactured home has been fully remodeled and offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, built-ins, ceiling fans, and a separate utility room. This all-electric home is conveniently located near the lake and features a wonderful front porch perfect for relaxing. Also has a carport.

2. 2026-04-02
   listed $120,000 Active 319-char remark

   Show marketing remark (319 chars)

   Welcome to Harbor Point! This nicely updated manufactured home has been fully remodeled and offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, built-ins, ceiling fans, and a separate utility room. This all-electric home is conveniently located near the lake and features a wonderful front porch perfect for relaxing. Also has a carport.

3. 2024-05-22
   soldstatus
4. 2024-05-22
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $230 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,874/yr (+$156/mo · 813.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,094
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$230
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,527
• − Management: −$1,527
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $5,446
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,307
• After-tax cash flow: $5,735/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mabank ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828680
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,321
• Composite: 38.15/100
• National rank: #4267
• State rank: #273 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mabank

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #9068

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henderson County · 34,977 people
• Metro: Athens, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,333
• Household income: $60,867
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% European 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -216.77%
• Current HPI: 199.8108
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.76%
• Metro: Athens, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $115,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $120,000 NTREIS
• 2024-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-05-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $230 · -50.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.