306 Towners Rd · Lake Carmel, NY 10512

$349,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 928 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1959 9,265 sqft lot $377/sqft · 31% above area Est $533k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.2/30.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity, this is the kind of property buyers wait for in Lake Carmel, where location, lifestyle, and long term upside come together in a way that is getting harder to find. Legally a 3 bedroom and currently configured as a 2 bedroom, this ranch offers a flexible layout that can easily be brought back to its original design or reimagined entirely depending on your vision. The eat in kitchen anchors the home and creates a natural starting point for what this space can become, while the overall footprint is simple, functional, and ready for someone to come in and make it their own. A full walkout basement adds another layer of potential, giving you the ability to create additional living space, a recreation area, or a completely reworked lower level that changes how the home lives day to day. Outside, a large deck extends the home and sets the tone for indoor outdoor living, entertaining, or quiet evenings overlooking the property. With coveted lake rights to Lake Carmel, the value here goes far beyond the structure itself, offering summer days by the water, a true neighborhood feel, and a lifestyle people actively seek out. The home does need updates, but for the right buyer this is where the opportunity is to create something special and build real equity over time. The property is nestled in a friendly community, with quick access to Southeast train station for easy commuting, and local shops and restaurants, and the scenic Lake Carmel Park District, all enhancing your living experience. Whether you're looking for a peaceful retreat or a home that keeps up with your active lifestyle, this is a perfect choice. *Taxes: $6,362.16 (school, no exemptions) + $3,635.69 (town & county) = $9,997.85 total annually. STAR exemption currently reduces school taxes; buyers to verify eligibility.*

Key facts

• Large deck
• Walkout basement
• Flexible layout

Tags

• LAKE RIGHTS
• WALKOUT BASEMENT
• LARGE DECK
• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-953 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (19.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $278k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 2.3% in Lake Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#650 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Carmel Central School District (suburban): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #258 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 231 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $350k implies a 797% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $277,771 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.68%
• DSCR: 0.48
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $532,801
• List price: $349,900
• Delta: -34.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Fairfield Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0	948 (+2%)	13mo	$330,000	$348	51
28 Brewster Dr	0.44mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,028 (+11%)	1mo	$320,000	$311	51
64 Pleasant Dr	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	915 (-1%)	17mo	$375,000	$410	48
11 Caryl Rd	0.67mi	3/1.0	994 (+7%)	9mo	$345,000	$347	46
2 Glenbrook Rd	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	792 (-15%)	6mo	$375,000	$473	46
54 Osceola Rd	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-7%)	13mo	$330,000	$382	45
49 Larchmont Rd	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	800 (-14%)	22mo	$405,000	$506	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -37.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-116,934
• Equity at exit: $52,171

10-year hold

• IRR: -52.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.82×
• Total profit: $-178,025
• Equity at exit: $30,253

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10512

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Active inventory: 231
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,778 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$1,167 /mo · $14,006/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $-953

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,985

Max offer price $280,110

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-755	-5% $-854	+0% $-953	+5% $-1,052	+10% $-1,152
Rent	-10% $-1,173	-5% $-1,063	+0% $-953	+5% $-844	+10% $-734
Rate	-1.0pp $-777	-0.5pp $-864	base $-953	+0.5pp $-1,044	+1.0pp $-1,136

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17 Horton Rd Carmel Hamlet, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,300	$2.30	20d	1	0.72mi
8 Teatown Ct Carmel, NY	2.0	2.0	816	$3,600	$4.41	44d	1	0.96mi
189 Fair St Unit 4 D Carmel Hamlet, NY	2.0	1.0	660	$2,495	$3.78	12d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 1820-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1820 chars)

   Opportunity, this is the kind of property buyers wait for in Lake Carmel, where location, lifestyle, and long term upside come together in a way that is getting harder to find. Legally a 3 bedroom and currently configured as a 2 bedroom, this ranch offers a flexible layout that can easily be brought back to its original design or reimagined entirely depending on your vision. The eat in kitchen anchors the home and creates a natural starting point for what this space can become, while the overall footprint is simple, functional, and ready for someone to come in and make it their own. A full walkout basement adds another layer of potential, giving you the ability to create additional living space, a recreation area, or a completely reworked lower level that changes how the home lives day to day. Outside, a large deck extends the home and sets the tone for indoor outdoor living, entertaining, or quiet evenings overlooking the property. With coveted lake rights to Lake Carmel, the value here goes far beyond the structure itself, offering summer days by the water, a true neighborhood feel, and a lifestyle people actively seek out. The home does need updates, but for the right buyer this is where the opportunity is to create something special and build real equity over time. The property is nestled in a friendly community, with quick access to Southeast train station for easy commuting, and local shops and restaurants, and the scenic Lake Carmel Park District, all enhancing your living experience. Whether you're looking for a peaceful retreat or a home that keeps up with your active lifestyle, this is a perfect choice. *Taxes: $6,362.16 (school, no exemptions) + $3,635.69 (town & county) = $9,997.85 total annually. STAR exemption currently reduces school taxes; buyers to verify eligibility.*

2. 2026-04-16
   listed $349,900 Active 1820-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1820 chars)

   Opportunity, this is the kind of property buyers wait for in Lake Carmel, where location, lifestyle, and long term upside come together in a way that is getting harder to find. Legally a 3 bedroom and currently configured as a 2 bedroom, this ranch offers a flexible layout that can easily be brought back to its original design or reimagined entirely depending on your vision. The eat in kitchen anchors the home and creates a natural starting point for what this space can become, while the overall footprint is simple, functional, and ready for someone to come in and make it their own. A full walkout basement adds another layer of potential, giving you the ability to create additional living space, a recreation area, or a completely reworked lower level that changes how the home lives day to day. Outside, a large deck extends the home and sets the tone for indoor outdoor living, entertaining, or quiet evenings overlooking the property. With coveted lake rights to Lake Carmel, the value here goes far beyond the structure itself, offering summer days by the water, a true neighborhood feel, and a lifestyle people actively seek out. The home does need updates, but for the right buyer this is where the opportunity is to create something special and build real equity over time. The property is nestled in a friendly community, with quick access to Southeast train station for easy commuting, and local shops and restaurants, and the scenic Lake Carmel Park District, all enhancing your living experience. Whether you're looking for a peaceful retreat or a home that keeps up with your active lifestyle, this is a perfect choice. *Taxes: $6,362.16 (school, no exemptions) + $3,635.69 (town & county) = $9,997.85 total annually. STAR exemption currently reduces school taxes; buyers to verify eligibility.*

3. 1979-07-11
   soldstatus $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $14,006 · $1,167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,006 · $1,167/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,333
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$14,006
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,667
• − Management: −$2,667
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable loss: −$17,534
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,208
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,233/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carmel Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606570
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $87,665
• Composite: 50.05/100
• National rank: #1914
• State rank: #258 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Carmel

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #650
• US rank: #12139

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Carmel, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,238

Population outlook (Putnam County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,705 people
• By 2030: 99,650 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 98,641 · -1.1%
• By 2050: 96,348 · -3.4%
• By 2075: 94,412 · -5.3%
• By 2100: 88,728 · -11.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Putnam

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 43.2% · R 56.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+17.8 2012: R+11.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.73%
• Current HPI: 258.8452
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+797.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Listed $349,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1979-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $14,006 · +30.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.