17 Meadowlark Cir · Ellenton, FL 34222

$190,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1987 5,706 sqft lot Est $213k · 11% under $243/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SEEING IS BELIEVING! A beautiful Palm Harbor home on oversized lot, with wooded land in rear. Watch wild life from morning room. A short walk to the bank, post office, and shopping center. This guarded gate retirement community offers complete lawn maintenance, heated pool, hot tub, shuffle board, and beautiful club house, and a great social schedule. You've heard about location. WELL THIS IS IT!

Key facts

• No rear neighbors
• Own the land
• Large carport

Tags

• GUARD GATED COMMUNITY
• OVERSIZED LOT
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• LARGE CARPORT
• VERSATILE STORAGE SHED
• OWN THE LAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Total annual fees listed as $2,924; Association fee listed as $731 (quarterly)
• HOA & community: Has HOA — monthly fee approximately $243.67 (quarterly/required; association approval required); Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, pickleball courts, gated entry, cable TV, security, street lights; Condo land included; Senior community; Buyer approval required; Deed restrictions; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sprinkler meter
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One level; East-facing
• Construction: Metal siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Shed(s); Trees/landscaped; Private lot; Greenbelt

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Walk-in closets; Skylight(s)
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry; Washer; Dryer; Inside utility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $348 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $190k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.84%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $213,192
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
100 Whipporwill Ct	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,606 (+6%)	2mo	$150,000	$93	75
51 Partridge Ave	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,318 (-13%)	1mo	$233,000	$177	70
181 Nightingale Cir	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+7%)	6mo	$190,000	$117	64
77 Spoonbill Ln	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,352 (-11%)	2mo	$140,000	$104	62
99 Meadow Cir	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,404 (-7%)	4mo	$120,000	$85	61
85 Meadow Cir	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,620 (+7%)	11mo	$241,000	$149	61
165 Nightingale Cir	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,720 (+14%)	7mo	$290,000	$169	59
158 Nightingale Cir	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,287 (-15%)	2mo	$185,000	$144	57
137 Osprey Cir	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,352 (-11%)	3mo	$190,000	$141	55
159 Osprey Cir Unit na	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	4mo	$181,000	$140	52
93 Meadow Cir	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	9mo	$127,500	$98	46
3426 70th Ave E	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,404 (-7%)	12mo	$255,000	$182	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-8,575
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $21,350
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,192 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $785/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$243
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $348

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,752

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $455	-5% $401	+0% $348	+5% $294	+10% $240
Rent	-10% $174	-5% $261	+0% $348	+5% $434	+10% $521
Rate	-1.0pp $443	-0.5pp $396	base $348	+0.5pp $298	+1.0pp $248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,362	$2.48	2d	67	0.39mi
2710 59th Dr E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,234	$1.94	4d	37	0.43mi
3119 61st Dr E Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$2,550	$1.53	4d	1	0.56mi
482 Outer Dr Unit NA Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	4d	1	0.86mi
3931 Day Bridge Pl Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,295	$1.84	4d	1	0.96mi
4180 Yardly Dr Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$2,498	$2.45	4d	15	1.06mi
3808 Sunset Dr Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,699	$1.18	22d	1	1.12mi
1143 Riverscape St Unit A Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$6,500	$3.72	15d	1	1.14mi
7711 Desoto Dr Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1356	$1,599	$1.18	15d	1	1.15mi
8314 Nancy Ln Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$1,895	$1.35	24d	1	1.33mi
923 Tidewater Shores Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2102	$3,200	$1.52	24d	1	1.45mi
3908 Lemonwood Dr N Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	24d	1	1.48mi
913 Tidewater Shores Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	2102	$2,900	$1.38	24d	1	1.48mi
4648 Lindever Ln Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,289	$1.53	4d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $243 · $2,916/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 693-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $190,000 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-03-03
   price $198,000
8. 2025-11-25
   listed $219,900 Active
9. 2005-02-22
   soldstatus $115,000
10. 2005-02-17
    soldstatus $115,000 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    SEEING IS BELIEVING! A beautiful Palm Harbor home on oversized lot, with wooded land in rear. Watch wild life from morning room. A short walk to the bank, post office, and shopping center. This guarded gate retirement community offers complete lawn maintenance, heated pool, hot tub, shuffle board, and beautiful club house, and a great social schedule. You've heard about location. WELL THIS IS IT!

11. 2004-12-30
    listed $119,750 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    SEEING IS BELIEVING! A beautiful Palm Harbor home on oversized lot, with wooded land in rear. Watch wild life from morning room. A short walk to the bank, post office, and shopping center. This guarded gate retirement community offers complete lawn maintenance, heated pool, hot tub, shuffle board, and beautiful club house, and a great social schedule. You've heard about location. WELL THIS IS IT!

12. 2000-09-05
    soldstatus $72,000
13. 2000-09-05
    soldstatus $72,000
14. 1989-02-24
    soldstatus $77,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $785 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$792/yr (+$66/mo · 101.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 39% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,301
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$785
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,104
• − Management: −$2,104
• − HOA: −$2,916
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $1,272
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$305
• After-tax cash flow: $3,866/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+155.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $198,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-25 Listed $219,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2005-02-17 Sold (MLS) $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-30 Listed $119,750 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2000-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 1989-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $77,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $785 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.