28563R Plan · Midland, TX 79706

$137,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,493 sqft · Manufactured · 394 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recently Reduced to 137,900. The Molly is a must-see roomy 3 bedroom with a gorgeous great-room and island kitchen, glamor bath option and walk-in closets throughout. Come in today and take advantage of this amazing floorplan. Includes delivery, set, HVAC, caliche pad and steps.

Key facts

• Amazing floorplan
• Glamor bath option
• Caliche pad

Tags

• GREAT-ROOM
• ISLAND KITCHEN
• GLAMOR BATH OPTION
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• AMAZING FLOORPLAN
• CALICHE PAD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $138k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $829 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Barbara Yarbrough El (math 43% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 750 students, 42% FRL); Goddard J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,024 students, 58% FRL, charter); Midland H S (math 37% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 2,492 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $953 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 394 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,352 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 394 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.78%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $29,953
• Equity at exit: $20,561

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $91,937
• Equity at exit: $11,923

Cash invested: $38,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79706

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,256 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$723
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$172 /mo · $2,068/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $829

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,206

Max offer price $137,900

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $925	-5% $877	+0% $829	+5% $782	+10% $734
Rent	-10% $651	-5% $740	+0% $829	+5% $919	+10% $1,008
Rate	-1.0pp $899	-0.5pp $865	base $829	+0.5pp $794	+1.0pp $757

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,475
• Closing costs: $4,137
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $137,900 Active 394 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $137,900 Active 392 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $137,900 Active 391 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $137,900 Active 390 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $137,900 Active 389 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $137,900 Active 388 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $137,900 Active 386 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $137,900 Active 385 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $137,900 Active 383 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $137,900 Active 382 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $137,900 Active 381 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $137,900 Active 380 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $137,900 Active 376 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $137,900 Active 375 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $137,900 Active 374 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $137,900 Active 373 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $137,900 Active 372 DOM
18. 2025-05-23
    listed $137,900 Active 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Recently Reduced to 137,900. The Molly is a must-see roomy 3 bedroom with a gorgeous great-room and island kitchen, glamor bath option and walk-in closets throughout. Come in today and take advantage of this amazing floorplan. Includes delivery, set, HVAC, caliche pad and steps.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,076
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,725
• − Property taxes: −$2,068
• − Insurance: −$690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,166
• − Management: −$2,166
• − Depreciation: −$4,012
• Taxable income: $8,249
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,980
• After-tax cash flow: $7,974/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This manufactured home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Install new flooring in bathrooms — New flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms
• Both Replace countertops in kitchen — Modern countertops can add value and functionality to the kitchen
• Both Install new lighting fixtures — New lighting can improve the ambiance and energy efficiency of the home

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install new flooring in bathrooms — New flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms ↑
• Both Replace countertops in kitchen — Modern countertops can add value and functionality to the kitchen ↑
• Both Install new lighting fixtures — New lighting can improve the ambiance and energy efficiency of the home ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,281
• Household income: $108,059
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 303.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 44% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Swedish 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.42%
• Current HPI: 212.6467
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.75%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-23 Listed $137,900 Zillow