9003 30th Ave E · Memphis, FL 34221

$134,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 384 Days on market

Built 1981 3,790 sqft lot $300/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fully furnished, well maintained, two bedroom, two bath home in an active community. Enclosed lanai with A/C. Open floor plan. Light and bright with bay windows in dining and living rooms. Lots of storage. Low maintenance fees only $120/month and includes: water, sewer, trash, cable and lawn cutting. Active club house. Mintues to Bradenton, Tampa and St Pet. Sorry no pets.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Fresh cabinetry
• Spacious living area

Tags

• REMODELED MODULAR HOME
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• NEW FLOORING
• FRESH CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association fees total $3,600 annually
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $300 (includes cable TV, pool, internet, sewer, trash, water); Piney Point Homeowners, Inc. association — approval required; Community amenities: clubhouse, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court; Senior community — pets allowed; Lease restrictions apply

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Electricity available; Phone service available
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One story; Faces east
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on a 0.09-acre lot
• Exterior features: Front porch; Sidewalk; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher, microwave, range, refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Florida room; Dishwasher; Dryer; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Washer
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry (washer and dryer included)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $291 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.4% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James Tillman Elementary Magnet School (math 65% / reading 34%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 520 students, 74% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1170 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 384 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $135k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 384 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.25%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-8,625
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,117
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1170
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,876 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,528/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$300
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,508

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $368	-5% $329	+0% $291	+5% $253	+10% $215
Rent	-10% $143	-5% $217	+0% $291	+5% $365	+10% $439
Rate	-1.0pp $359	-0.5pp $325	base $291	+0.5pp $256	+1.0pp $221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3037 88th Street Cir E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	672	$1,500	$2.23	25d	1	0.13mi
9204 34th Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	13d	1	0.19mi
9940 Mahaffey DR Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1106	$1,700	$1.54	25d	1	1.18mi
6045 Bird Key Pl Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$2,005	$2.03	5d	220	1.18mi
5020 Cedar Leaf Cir Palmetto, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$2,491	$2.85	3d	21	1.44mi
9650 52nd Ave E Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,958	$1.87	25d	99	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $300 · $3,600/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashcable

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $134,900 Active 384 DOM
2. 2026-03-17
   price $134,900
3. 2025-05-12
   listed $149,000 Active
4. 2014-03-21
   soldstatus $67,500
5. 2014-03-19
   soldstatus $67,500 Sold 378-char remark

   Show marketing remark (378 chars)

   Fully furnished, well maintained, two bedroom, two bath home in an active community. Enclosed lanai with A/C. Open floor plan. Light and bright with bay windows in dining and living rooms. Lots of storage. Low maintenance fees only $120/month and includes: water, sewer, trash, cable and lawn cutting. Active club house. Mintues to Bradenton, Tampa and St Pet. Sorry no pets.

6. 2013-12-14
   listed $78,000 378-char remark

   Show marketing remark (378 chars)

   Fully furnished, well maintained, two bedroom, two bath home in an active community. Enclosed lanai with A/C. Open floor plan. Light and bright with bay windows in dining and living rooms. Lots of storage. Low maintenance fees only $120/month and includes: water, sewer, trash, cable and lawn cutting. Active club house. Mintues to Bradenton, Tampa and St Pet. Sorry no pets.

7. 2003-02-24
   soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,528 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,528 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,514
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$1,528
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,801
• − Management: −$1,801
• − HOA: −$3,600
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $1,628
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$391
• After-tax cash flow: $3,103/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+124.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $134,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-12 Listed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $67,500 Public Records
• 2014-03-19 Sold (MLS) $67,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-12-14 Listed $78,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,528 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.