2409 Cedar Ave · Lubbock, TX 79404

$29,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 724 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1954 7,000 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Calling all INVESTORS! 2 Bedroom, 1 Bathroom home is priced to sell AS IS thousands below tax value. Ready for Immediate Possession!

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1954
• Listed 12 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax listed

Exterior

• Parking: Street parking
• Utilities: Paved road access
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Fixer condition
• Construction: Built with other construction materials; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: No notable exterior features listed; Composition roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window air conditioning unit(s); Space heater
• Interior features: See remarks

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $29k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $460 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($862 rent vs $29k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ervin El (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 405 students, 97% FRL, charter); Dunbar College Preparatory Academy (math 16% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 430 students, 97% FRL, charter); Estacado H S (math 26% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 897 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 60% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 21% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lubbock ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($200 loan paydown + $935 appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $29,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.01%
• DSCR: 4.03
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.09×
• Total profit: $33,175
• Equity at exit: $13,406

10-year hold

• IRR: 72.3%
• Equity multiple: 10.44×
• Total profit: $76,638
• Equity at exit: $20,950

Cash invested: $8,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79404

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $862 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$152
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $679/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$181
• Net cashflow: $460

Break-even live

Break-even rent $279

Max offer price $29,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $477	-5% $468	+0% $460	+5% $452	+10% $444
Rent	-10% $392	-5% $426	+0% $460	+5% $494	+10% $528
Rate	-1.0pp $475	-0.5pp $468	base $460	+0.5pp $453	+1.0pp $445

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,250
• Closing costs: $870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
209 36th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	45d	1	0.75mi
211 36th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	750	$775	$1.03	45d	1	0.76mi
330 37th St Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	750	$750	$1.00	15d	1	0.83mi
332 37th St Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	725	$700	$0.97	22d	1	0.83mi
1707 E 27th St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	672	$725	$1.08	45d	1	0.90mi
1707 E 27th St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	672	$595	$0.89	22d	1	0.90mi
609 38th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	660	$550	$0.83	45d	1	1.01mi
3104 Avenue N Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$785	$1.05	22d	1	1.13mi
1915 Avenue O Unit O Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	732	$750	$1.02	45d	1	1.16mi
1608 29th St Unit C Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	680	$650	$0.96	45d	1	1.23mi
1608 29th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	694	$750	$1.08	15d	1	1.23mi
1608 29th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	505	$595	$1.18	15d	1	1.23mi
1220 Broadway St Unit 2001 Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	725	$1,350	$1.86	46d	1	1.26mi
1220 Broadway St Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	932	$1,500	$1.61	15d	7	1.27mi
1202 Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	919	$1,341	$1.46	15d	13	1.32mi
1102 42nd St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	574	$495	$0.86	22d	1	1.34mi
1604 W AVE Unit 5 Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$699	$1.00	45d	1	1.41mi
1604 W AVE Unit 8 Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$699	$1.00	45d	1	1.41mi
2604 S 2604 Ave S A Unit 2604 Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	572	$625	$1.09	45d	1	1.43mi
1707 32nd St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	400	$575	$1.44	45d	1	1.43mi
4511 Avenue G Unit G Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	528	$750	$1.42	15d	1	1.44mi
2010 Avenue S Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	625	$599	$0.96	15d	1	1.46mi
1710 Avenue R Unit MR2 206 Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	580	$600	$1.03	45d	1	1.47mi
1909 23rd St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	500	$600	$1.20	45d	1	1.47mi
1911 21st St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	714	$750	$1.05	45d	1	1.49mi
1917 26th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	550	$725	$1.32	22d	1	1.50mi
1917 26th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	550	$735	$1.34	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $29,000 Pending 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $29,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $29,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $29,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-05-19
   listed $29,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $679 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $679 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,344
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,624
• − Property taxes: −$679
• − Insurance: −$145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$827
• − Management: −$827
• − Depreciation: −$844
• Taxable income: $5,397
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,295
• After-tax cash flow: $4,227/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,529
• Household income: $51,630
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 366.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Black 22% White 20% Two or more races 17% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.22%
• Current HPI: 163.854
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $29,000 LARMLS

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $679 · -8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.