9 Valley Park Dr · Adams, NY 13605

$259,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,411 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2000 0.50 ac lot Est $250k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• ARV discount +5.7/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in ready home inside and out. 2 bedroom 2 bath home with formal dining room and large living room. Features a large fenced in backyard with mature trees in a developed neighborhood. Full basement that has a bonus room for a office. Just minutes to Watertown, Fort Drum, school and shopping.

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2000

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing residence; Shingle roof; Vinyl siding; Block foundation
• Construction: Built as existing structure; Vinyl siding construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular residential lot; 120 x 180 lot dimensions; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven and range; Range hood; Disposal; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Baseboard hot water heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Separate/formal dining room; Primary bedroom with private bath; Primary bedroom on main level; Full finished basement; Basement recreation/bonus/laundry areas
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-391 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (26.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (30.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#607 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• South Jefferson Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #420 of 590 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $210k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $180,000 (30.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.45%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $249,747
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37 Wardwell St	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,436 (+2%)	5mo	$197,000	$137	75
10421 N Park St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,469 (+4%)	15mo	$260,000	$177	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $116,686
• Equity at exit: $234,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.99×
• Total profit: $363,276
• Equity at exit: $504,929

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13605

• Home prices YoY: 12.7%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$342 /mo · $4,101/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $-391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,295

Max offer price $190,836

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-244	-5% $-317	+0% $-391	+5% $-465	+10% $-538
Rent	-10% $-533	-5% $-462	+0% $-391	+5% $-320	+10% $-249
Rate	-1.0pp $-260	-0.5pp $-325	base $-391	+0.5pp $-458	+1.0pp $-527

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9193 US Route 11 Adams, NY	3.0	1.0	1472	$1,800	$1.22	44d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $259,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $259,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 664-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $259,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,101 · $342/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,246 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: +$146/yr (+$12/mo · 3.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$4,101
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$9,375
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,250
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,441/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Jefferson Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602340
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,872
• Composite: 41.27/100
• National rank: #3522
• State rank: #420 of 590 in NY

Livability — Adams

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #607
• US rank: #10970

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Adams, NY
• Population (ZIP): 5,106

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 5% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.95%
• Current HPI: 354.8216
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+64.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $259,900 CNYIS
• 2022-07-31 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2022-07-20 Sold (MLS) $210,000 CNYIS
• 2022-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $222,000 Public Records
• 2022-06-01 Price Changed $209,900 CNYIS
• 2022-05-25 Price Changed $219,900 CNYIS
• 2022-05-22 Listed $225,000 CNYIS
• 2021-05-23 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2021-05-20 Listed $199,000 CNYIS
• 2014-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $158,000 Public Records
• 2014-08-07 Sold (MLS) $158,000 CNYIS
• 2014-05-21 Listed $158,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,101 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.