1243 Blue Spruce Ln · Wilmington, OH 45177

$348,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,802 sqft · SingleFamily · 213 Days on market

Poor condition 8,011 sqft lot $193/sqft · 7% above area Est $326k · 7% over $28/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• ARV discount +4.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Mayfair II Design by Cristo Homes! This beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath ranch boasts ~1802 sqft of living space! Eat-in kitchen with granite countertops + pantry offers a full view to the Great Rm & Dining Area. Split bedroom layout. Primary suite w adjoining bath ft. double vanity and walk-in closet. Convenient first floor laundry! Mudroom. 2-car oversized garage.

Key facts

• Pantry
• Adjoining bath
• Primary suite

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• PANTRY
• SPLIT BEDROOM LAYOUT
• PRIMARY SUITE
• ADJOINING BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $348k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $826 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $348k).
• Recommended offer: $306k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 6.0% in Wilmington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#202 in OH, #3,127 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, employment F.
• Wilmington City (town): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #492 of 656 in OH (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roy E Holmes Elementary School (508 students, 58% FRL); Rodger O. Borror Middle School (math 35% / reading 44%, grade F, #519 of 654 statewide, top 80%, 502 students, 48% FRL); Wilmington High School (math 24% / reading 62%, grade F, #494 of 781 statewide, top 63%, 663 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 119 units permitted in Clinton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,125/mo this rent would consume 70% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clinton County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($306k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $306,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.17%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,451
• List price: $348,000
• Delta: 6.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1300 Blue Spruce Ln	0.00mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,797 (-0%)	14mo	$426,244	$237	79
432 Red Maple Ln	0.15mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,802 (0%)	12mo	$449,940	$250	74
21 Garden Cir	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,853 (+3%)	11mo	$314,900	$170	56
1985 St Rt 730	0.70mi	3/3.0	1,860 (+3%)	4mo	$305,000	$164	55
1282 Ridge Rd	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,896 (+5%)	18mo	$250,000	$132	41
97 Glenwood Cir	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,596 (-11%)	22mo	$250,000	$157	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-3,728
• Equity at exit: $51,888

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $64,786
• Equity at exit: $30,089

Cash invested: $97,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45177

• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,125 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,825
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$435 /mo · $5,220/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$866
• Net cashflow: $826

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,080

Max offer price $348,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,066	-5% $946	+0% $826	+5% $705	+10% $585
Rent	-10% $500	-5% $663	+0% $826	+5% $989	+10% $1,151
Rate	-1.0pp $1,001	-0.5pp $914	base $826	+0.5pp $735	+1.0pp $644

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,000
• Closing costs: $10,440
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 Southwind Blvd Wilmington, OH	3.0	2.0	1344	$4,995	$3.72	4d	1	0.64mi
121 Southwind Blvd Wilmington, OH	3.0	2.0	1344	$4,995	$3.72	4d	1	0.65mi
229 Taylor Dr Wilmington, OH	3.0	2.0	1242	$2,000	$1.61	13d	1	0.73mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $348,000 Active 213 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $348,000 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $348,000 Active 209 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $348,000 Active 208 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $348,000 Active 207 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $348,000 Active 205 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $348,000 Active 202 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $348,000 Active 201 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $348,000 Active 200 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $348,000 Active 199 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $348,000 Active 196 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $348,000 Active 195 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $348,000 Active 194 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $348,000 Active 193 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $348,000 Active 192 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $348,000 Active 191 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    price $350,000 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    The Mayfair II Design by Cristo Homes! This beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath ranch boasts ~1802 sqft of living space! Eat-in kitchen with granite countertops + pantry offers a full view to the Great Rm & Dining Area. Split bedroom layout. Primary suite w adjoining bath ft. double vanity and walk-in closet. Convenient first floor laundry! Mudroom. 2-car oversized garage.

18. 2026-05-14
    price $350,000 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    The Mayfair II Design by Cristo Homes! This beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath ranch boasts ~1802 sqft of living space! Eat-in kitchen with granite countertops + pantry offers a full view to the Great Rm & Dining Area. Split bedroom layout. Primary suite w adjoining bath ft. double vanity and walk-in closet. Convenient first floor laundry! Mudroom. 2-car oversized garage.

19. 2026-03-27
    price $368,195
20. 2026-01-24
    listed $369,195 Active
21. 2025-11-19
    listed $368,195 Active 367-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    The Mayfair II Design by Cristo Homes! This beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath ranch boasts ~1802 sqft of living space! Eat-in kitchen with granite countertops + pantry offers a full view to the Great Rm & Dining Area. Split bedroom layout. Primary suite w adjoining bath ft. double vanity and walk-in closet. Convenient first floor laundry! Mudroom. 2-car oversized garage.

22. 2025-11-19
    listed $368,195 Active 369-char remark

    Show marketing remark (369 chars)

    The Mayfair II Design by Cristo Homes! This beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath ranch boasts ~1802 sqft of living space! Eat-in kitchen with granite countertops + pantry offers a full view to the Great Rm & Dining Area. Split bedroom layout. Primary suite w adjoining bath ft. double vanity and walk-in closet. Convenient first floor laundry! Mudroom. 2-car oversized garage.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,497
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,493
• − Property taxes: −$5,220
• − Insurance: −$1,740
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,960
• − Management: −$3,960
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$10,124
• Taxable income: $4,665
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,119
• After-tax cash flow: $8,788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property is in the construction phase and requires extensive renovation to be move-in ready. Significant updates are needed to complete the exterior, interior, and landscaping to increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Complete exterior siding and roof installation — Completes the exterior and enhances curb appeal.
• Both Install kitchen cabinets and countertops — Enhances functionality and aesthetic appeal.
• Both Install bathroom fixtures and finishes — Enhances functionality and aesthetic appeal.
• Both Install flooring — Enhances functionality and aesthetic appeal.
• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances aesthetic appeal and creates a finished look.
• Both Install windows — Enhances natural light and aesthetic appeal.
• Both Install HVAC and mechanical systems — Ensures comfort and functionality.
• Both Complete landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and creates a welcoming environment.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Complete exterior siding and roof installation — Completes the exterior and enhances curb appeal. ↑
• Both Install kitchen cabinets and countertops — Enhances functionality and aesthetic appeal. ↑
• Both Install bathroom fixtures and finishes — Enhances functionality and aesthetic appeal. ↑
• Both Install flooring — Enhances functionality and aesthetic appeal. ↑
• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances aesthetic appeal and creates a finished look. ↑
• Both Install windows — Enhances natural light and aesthetic appeal. ↑
• Both Install HVAC and mechanical systems — Ensures comfort and functionality. ↑
• Both Complete landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and creates a welcoming environment. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wilmington City
• NCES district ID: 3904511
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $43,201
• Composite: 39.2/100
• National rank: #4020
• State rank: #492 of 656 in OH

Livability — Wilmington

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #202
• US rank: #3127

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wilmington, OH
• County: Clinton · 46,911 people
• Population (ZIP): 22,442
• Household income: $70,483
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 9.5

Population outlook (Clinton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,352 people
• By 2030: 40,831 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 39,049 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 36,408 · -12.0%
• By 2075: 29,652 · -28.3%
• By 2100: 20,736 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 3% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clinton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.6) · D 22.3% · R 76.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.3pp toward R · 2008: -30.3pp · 2024: -54.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.6 2020: R+52.6 2016: R+52.6 2012: R+35.2 2008: R+30.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.35%
• Current HPI: 238.9182
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

-4.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $350,000 Cincy MLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $350,000 Dayton MLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $368,195 Zillow
• 2026-01-24 Listed $369,195 Zillow
• 2025-11-19 Listed $368,195 Dayton MLS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $368,195 Cincy MLS