24278 Arrowhead Rd #278 · Chelsea, MI 48118

$142,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 134 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You ll love this beautiful home with serene lake views, perfectly situated on a quiet, peaceful site. Enjoy nature and breathtaking sunsets from your covered porch, or simply relax while watching the local wildlife. Inside, the home features an open floor plan with 42-inch cabinets and a ceramic tile backsplash. The spacious kitchen offers ample storage and workspace, modern appliances, and a dining area ideal for sharing meals with family and friends. The primary bedroom includes a walk-in closet and a private ensuite bath featuring a step-in shower with glass doors, dual vanity, and a convenient linen closet. The main bathroom offers a shower/tub combination and a transom window that fills the space with natural light. A cozy sitting area with sliding glass doors opens directly to the porch and can also be used as a home office or den. Additional highlights include crown molding throughout, central air conditioning, and off-street parking for up to four vehicles. Don t miss the opportunity to make this exceptional home your own this is truly a gem.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Open floor plan
• Lake views

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• COVERED PORCH
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CERAMIC TILE BACKSPLASH
• AMPLE STORAGE
• MODERN APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $143k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $757 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $143k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 3.0% in Chelsea — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#135 in MI, #3,301 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chelsea School District (town): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #59 of 540 in MI (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: North Creek Elementary School (477 students, 15% FRL); Beach Middle School (math 54% / reading 59%, grade B, #70 of 493 statewide, top 14%, 542 students, 10% FRL); Chelsea High School (math 56% / reading 70%, grade B-, #57 of 713 statewide, top 8%, 783 students, 15% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 996 units permitted in Washtenaw County in 2024 (492 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $988 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washtenaw County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $125,835 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.69%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $25,076
• Equity at exit: $21,321

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $84,054
• Equity at exit: $12,364

Cash invested: $40,039 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48118

• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,209 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$750
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$179 /mo · $2,145/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $757

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,251

Max offer price $142,995

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $856	-5% $806	+0% $757	+5% $708	+10% $658
Rent	-10% $582	-5% $670	+0% $757	+5% $844	+10% $932
Rate	-1.0pp $829	-0.5pp $793	base $757	+0.5pp $720	+1.0pp $682

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,749
• Closing costs: $4,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-01-13
   listed $142,995 Active 1066-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1066 chars)

   You ll love this beautiful home with serene lake views, perfectly situated on a quiet, peaceful site. Enjoy nature and breathtaking sunsets from your covered porch, or simply relax while watching the local wildlife. Inside, the home features an open floor plan with 42-inch cabinets and a ceramic tile backsplash. The spacious kitchen offers ample storage and workspace, modern appliances, and a dining area ideal for sharing meals with family and friends. The primary bedroom includes a walk-in closet and a private ensuite bath featuring a step-in shower with glass doors, dual vanity, and a convenient linen closet. The main bathroom offers a shower/tub combination and a transom window that fills the space with natural light. A cozy sitting area with sliding glass doors opens directly to the porch and can also be used as a home office or den. Additional highlights include crown molding throughout, central air conditioning, and off-street parking for up to four vehicles. Don t miss the opportunity to make this exceptional home your own this is truly a gem.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,509
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,010
• − Property taxes: −$2,145
• − Insurance: −$715
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,121
• − Management: −$2,121
• − Depreciation: −$4,160
• Taxable income: $7,238
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,737
• After-tax cash flow: $7,347/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a modern kitchen, a functional bathroom, and a clean exterior. The home is move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior and interior walls, landscaping improvements, and upgrading the ceiling fan.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and creates a more inviting atmosphere.
• Rental Upgrading the ceiling fan to a more energy-efficient model — Improves energy efficiency and comfort for tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and creates a more inviting atmosphere. ↑
• Rental Upgrading the ceiling fan to a more energy-efficient model — Improves energy efficiency and comfort for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chelsea School District
• NCES district ID: 2608940
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $75,362
• Composite: 49.34/100
• National rank: #2018
• State rank: #59 of 540 in MI

Livability — Chelsea

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #135
• US rank: #3301

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 13,088
• Population (ZIP): 13,088

Population outlook (Washtenaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 402,878 people
• By 2030: 424,104 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 464,633 · +15.3%
• By 2050: 504,728 · +25.3%
• By 2075: 614,463 · +52.5%
• By 2100: 676,181 · +67.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washtenaw

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.4) · D 71.0% · R 26.6% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 41.0pp · 2024: 44.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.4 2020: D+46.6 2016: D+41.5 2012: D+36.0 2008: D+41.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -204.35%
• Current HPI: 174.8761
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Listed $142,995 Zillow