10 Dartmouth Ct · Loch Sheldrake, NY 12759

$149,888

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 171 Days on market

Built 1987 $107/sqft · 33% below area Est $223k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering approximately 1,400 square feet of comfortable living space in Fallsburg. Featuring a functional layout with generously sized rooms, this home provides both comfort and versatility for everyday living. The bright interior and thoughtful floor plan make it easy to entertain or relax, while the bedrooms offer ample space and privacy. Conveniently located near local amenities, shopping, and dining—this property is a great opportunity to enjoy all that Fallsburg has to offer.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1987
• Listed 171 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $301 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#793 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Tri-Valley Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #488 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 171 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $131,901 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 171 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.60%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $223,196
• List price: $149,888
• Delta: -32.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
526 Hasbrouck Rd	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (0%)	21mo	$150,000	$107	63
33 Humen Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,476 (+5%)	21mo	$240,000	$163	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.40×
• Total profit: $100,816
• Equity at exit: $135,031

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.72×
• Total profit: $281,873
• Equity at exit: $291,199

Cash invested: $41,969 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12759

• Home prices YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,692 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $301

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,311

Max offer price $149,888

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,472
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,888 Active 171 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,888 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,888 Active 169 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,888 Active 168 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,888 Active 166 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,888 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,888 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,888 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,888 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,888 Active 159 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,888 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,888 Active 155 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,888 Active 154 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,888 Active 153 DOM
15. 2025-12-29
    listed $149,888 Active 546-char remark

    Show marketing remark (546 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering approximately 1,400 square feet of comfortable living space in Fallsburg. Featuring a functional layout with generously sized rooms, this home provides both comfort and versatility for everyday living. The bright interior and thoughtful floor plan make it easy to entertain or relax, while the bedrooms offer ample space and privacy. Conveniently located near local amenities, shopping, and dining—this property is a great opportunity to enjoy all that Fallsburg has to offer.

16. 2025-06-26
    historical
17. 2025-03-24
    listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,303
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,396
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$749
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,624
• − Management: −$1,624
• − Depreciation: −$4,360
• Taxable income: $1,301
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$312
• After-tax cash flow: $3,297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tri-Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628890
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,543
• Composite: 36.47/100
• National rank: #4662
• State rank: #488 of 590 in NY

Livability — Loch Sheldrake

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #793
• US rank: #15202

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,036
• Population (ZIP): 1,835

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 12% Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.94%
• Current HPI: 495.297
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-29 Listed $149,888 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-26 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-24 Listed $149,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid