3520 Chapin Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14301

$200,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,602 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1946 5,200 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home. This 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home with detached garage will give you all that you need to spread out and enjoy family traditions or quiet time, as well. Eat in kitchen with dishwasher and gas stove included. Walk out of your kitchen to your spacious & fenced backyard, ready for you to enjoy from your back patio. Partially finished basement with laundry area. Detached, 1.5 car garage with opener. Updates include fresh paint, new flooring and gorgeous lighting fixtures that will have you excited to call this home your own.

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Front and back yard
• Sliding patio doors

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• SLIDING PATIO DOORS
• UPDATED FLOORING
• FRONT AND BACK YARD
• LONG DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Approximately 1.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story; Resale property; Brick and frame construction
• Construction: Block foundation; Existing structure
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Other kitchen items (see remarks)
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Baseboard heat
• Interior features: Full basement; Other interior features (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-238 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (21.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.8%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,653/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($35k/yr) (locally 954% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $158,017 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.09%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $126,558
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3510 Chapin Ave	0.02mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,547 (-3%)	3mo	$184,900	$120	86
2526 Walnut Ave	0.43mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,664 (+4%)	3mo	$112,000	$67	62
2517 Welch Ave	0.58mi	5/2.0	1,700 (+6%)	8mo	$105,000	$62	56
3807 Pine Ave	0.27mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,824 (+14%)	5mo	$128,500	$70	55
2238 Independence Ave	0.68mi	5/2.0	1,653 (+3%)	10mo	$130,000	$79	55
527 23rd St	0.59mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (-7%)	1mo	$154,000	$103	55
2426 Falls St	0.64mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,670 (+4%)	7mo	$75,000	$45	52
3317 D St	0.52mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-6%)	10mo	$170,000	$113	52
542 30th St	0.18mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,370 (-14%)	14mo	$130,000	$95	49
517 23rd St	0.59mi	5/2.0	1,417 (-12%)	23mo	$123,000	$87	34
2711 Welch Ave	0.50mi	4/1.0 (-1)	1,440 (-10%)	21mo	$40,000	$28	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $102,646
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.00×
• Total profit: $336,063
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14301

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,653 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$411 /mo · $4,933/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $-238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,953

Max offer price $158,017

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3225 Belden Pl Niagara Falls, NY	5.0	1.5	1344	$1,750	$1.30	2d	1	0.27mi
2420 Mackenna Ave Unit 1 Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,390	$1.07	2d	1	0.75mi
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	17d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-20
    listed $200,000 Active
16. 2024-02-16
    soldstatus $155,000 Closed 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    Welcome home. This 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home with detached garage will give you all that you need to spread out and enjoy family traditions or quiet time, as well. Eat in kitchen with dishwasher and gas stove included. Walk out of your kitchen to your spacious & fenced backyard, ready for you to enjoy from your back patio. Partially finished basement with laundry area. Detached, 1.5 car garage with opener. Updates include fresh paint, new flooring and gorgeous lighting fixtures that will have you excited to call this home your own.

17. 2024-01-04
    status Pending 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    Welcome home. This 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home with detached garage will give you all that you need to spread out and enjoy family traditions or quiet time, as well. Eat in kitchen with dishwasher and gas stove included. Walk out of your kitchen to your spacious & fenced backyard, ready for you to enjoy from your back patio. Partially finished basement with laundry area. Detached, 1.5 car garage with opener. Updates include fresh paint, new flooring and gorgeous lighting fixtures that will have you excited to call this home your own.

18. 2023-12-29
    listed $159,900 Active 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (545 chars)

    Welcome home. This 4 bedroom, 2 full bath home with detached garage will give you all that you need to spread out and enjoy family traditions or quiet time, as well. Eat in kitchen with dishwasher and gas stove included. Walk out of your kitchen to your spacious & fenced backyard, ready for you to enjoy from your back patio. Partially finished basement with laundry area. Detached, 1.5 car garage with opener. Updates include fresh paint, new flooring and gorgeous lighting fixtures that will have you excited to call this home your own.

19. 2021-01-05
    soldstatus $138,000 Closed Sale or Rented 664-char remark

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    Make this LARGE, move in ready four, bedroom home yours today! This meticulously maintained home is on a quiet street in Niagara Falls. Enjoy a front porch along with a fabulous back patio with a custom awning. Walk into a large family room with a wood burning fireplace. First floor bedroom next to full bathroom. Large eat-in kitchen includes a new refrigerator and stove. Comes with corian countertops and a separate dining room accented by a beautiful chandelier. 3 large, upstairs bedrooms each with new carpet and paint. Partially finished basement which also includes a bar and full bathroom with walk in shower. Delayed negotiations until 11.25.2020.

20. 2020-12-03
    status Pending Sale 664-char remark

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    Make this LARGE, move in ready four, bedroom home yours today! This meticulously maintained home is on a quiet street in Niagara Falls. Enjoy a front porch along with a fabulous back patio with a custom awning. Walk into a large family room with a wood burning fireplace. First floor bedroom next to full bathroom. Large eat-in kitchen includes a new refrigerator and stove. Comes with corian countertops and a separate dining room accented by a beautiful chandelier. 3 large, upstairs bedrooms each with new carpet and paint. Partially finished basement which also includes a bar and full bathroom with walk in shower. Delayed negotiations until 11.25.2020.

21. 2020-12-01
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 664-char remark

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    Make this LARGE, move in ready four, bedroom home yours today! This meticulously maintained home is on a quiet street in Niagara Falls. Enjoy a front porch along with a fabulous back patio with a custom awning. Walk into a large family room with a wood burning fireplace. First floor bedroom next to full bathroom. Large eat-in kitchen includes a new refrigerator and stove. Comes with corian countertops and a separate dining room accented by a beautiful chandelier. 3 large, upstairs bedrooms each with new carpet and paint. Partially finished basement which also includes a bar and full bathroom with walk in shower. Delayed negotiations until 11.25.2020.

22. 2020-11-19
    listed $129,900 Active 664-char remark

    Show marketing remark (664 chars)

    Make this LARGE, move in ready four, bedroom home yours today! This meticulously maintained home is on a quiet street in Niagara Falls. Enjoy a front porch along with a fabulous back patio with a custom awning. Walk into a large family room with a wood burning fireplace. First floor bedroom next to full bathroom. Large eat-in kitchen includes a new refrigerator and stove. Comes with corian countertops and a separate dining room accented by a beautiful chandelier. 3 large, upstairs bedrooms each with new carpet and paint. Partially finished basement which also includes a bar and full bathroom with walk in shower. Delayed negotiations until 11.25.2020.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,933 · $411/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,933 · $411/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,832
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,933
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,587
• − Management: −$1,587
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$6,296
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,511
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,341/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,923
• Household income: $34,549
• Rent vs Own: 54.1% rent · 45.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 954.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 25% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.41%
• Current HPI: 266.1457
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.79%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+54.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $200,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-02-16 Sold (MLS) $155,000 WNYREIS
• 2024-01-04 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2023-12-29 Listed $159,900 WNYREIS
• 2021-01-05 Sold (MLS) $138,000 WNYREIS
• 2020-12-03 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-12-01 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-11-19 Listed $129,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+18.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,933 · +18.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.