2613 Muirwood Way · Celina, TX 75009

$429,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,297 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 4,617 sqft lot 2-car garage $187/sqft · 11% below area Est $484k · 11% under $165/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 2613 Muirwood Way — where comfort, style, and space come together in one of Celina’s most desirable communities. This beautifully maintained home offers an inviting open-concept layout designed for both everyday living and effortless entertaining. From the moment you walk in, you’ll notice the natural light, spacious flow, and thoughtful design that make this home feel warm and welcoming. The kitchen serves as the heart of the home, featuring ample counter space, modern finishes, and a seamless connection to the living and dining areas—perfect for hosting gatherings or enjoying a quiet night in.

Key facts

• 4,617 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $430k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-781 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (32.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $345k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $292k (32.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 2.9% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 3407 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($417k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $291,944 (32.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.79%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $484,490
• List price: $429,900
• Delta: -11.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1709 Palo Duro Way	0.11mi	3/2.5	2,321 (+1%)	5mo	$464,900	$200	89
2628 Muirwood Way	0.04mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,338 (+2%)	4mo	$475,900	$204	83
1604 Victoria Pl	0.11mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,338 (+2%)	2mo	$474,900	$203	81
2736 Acadia Mews	0.15mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,338 (+2%)	3mo	$474,900	$203	78
1717 Palo Duro Way	0.11mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,338 (+2%)	7mo	$474,900	$203	77
1708 Palo Duro Way	0.13mi	3/2.0	2,024 (-12%)	8mo	$449,900	$222	66
2118 Newhall Rd	0.46mi	3/2.5	2,464 (+7%)	2mo	$495,000	$201	64
1629 Asbury Ln	0.18mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,579 (+12%)	1mo	$563,985	$219	63
2616 Hardwood Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5	2,464 (+7%)	5mo	$565,475	$229	52
2209 Ten Mile Creek Rd	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,447 (+6%)	6mo	$572,350	$234	49
2601 Hardwood Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,429 (+6%)	4mo	$490,000	$202	48
2621 Hardwood Dr	0.69mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,050 (-11%)	2mo	$594,000	$290	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-129,138
• Equity at exit: $64,099

10-year hold

• IRR: -71.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.78×
• Total profit: $-214,055
• Equity at exit: $37,170

Cash invested: $120,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 94 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 40.3 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $528,990 ($219/sqft)
• Median days on market: 267 d
• This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 3407
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,453 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,254
• Tax from tax record: −$911 /mo · $10,927/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$165
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$725
• Net cashflow: $-781

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,442

Max offer price $291,944

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-538	-5% $-659	+0% $-781	+5% $-903	+10% $-1,024
Rent	-10% $-1,054	-5% $-917	+0% $-781	+5% $-645	+10% $-508
Rate	-1.0pp $-564	-0.5pp $-672	base $-781	+0.5pp $-892	+1.0pp $-1,006

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,475
• Closing costs: $12,897
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2612 Griffith Mews Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	2024	$3,050	$1.51	3d	1	0.04mi
1637 Palo Duro Way Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$5,800	$2.28	21d	1	0.11mi
2712 Biltmore Dr Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1964	$2,500	$1.27	0d	1	0.14mi
1149 Beautyberry Ln Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	1930	$2,595	$1.34	17d	1	1.08mi
1720 Yaupon Ct Celina, TX	4.0	5.0	3271	$3,450	$1.05	73d	1	1.09mi
2004 Huntersridge Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2815	$2,995	$1.06	34d	1	1.22mi
2600 Precocious Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	3316	$4,700	$1.42	7d	1	1.30mi
2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2386	$2,895	$1.21	68d	1	1.33mi
2522 Runhappy Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$3,500	$1.46	92d	1	1.37mi
1513 Mill Creek Way Celina, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1385	$2,648	$1.91	3d	16	1.46mi
2432 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2309	$3,500	$1.52	92d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Short sale special listing conditionPossession at closing/funding
• Financial info: No second mortgage indicatedLoan type listed as treat as clear
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOAMonthly association fee (managed by Insight Management) covering front and back yard maintenance and grounds maintenanceCommunity features include clubhouse, community pool, playground, jogging/bike path, sidewalks, and tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (approximately 21' wide x 17' long)2 covered parking spacesAlley access
• Security: Fire alarmSmoke detectorsAudio and video surveillance devices present
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerNatural gas availableIndividual gas meterIndividual water meterAsphalt streetsCurbs
• Home design: Single family residenceTwo storiesResidential propertyPreowned (built 2023)Smart home features available
• Construction: Built in 2023Brick and fiber cement exteriorAsphalt roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas rangeDishwasherDisposalIce makerMicrowaveGranite countertops in primary bathroom (granite mentioned in room features)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 with dual sinks, ensuite bath, garden tub, separate shower, and walk-in closetTwo additional bedrooms (located on level 2)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingActive solar heatingCentral air conditioningCeiling fans
• Interior features: Open floorplanEat-in kitchenKitchen islandPantryWindow coveringsTwo living areasOne dining area6 total roomsGas fireplace with gas logs
• Laundry & utility: Utility roomElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookupTankless water heater

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $429,900 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $429,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $429,900 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $429,900 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $429,900 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-05-13
   price $449,900 1153-char remark
7. 2026-04-30
   listed $469,000 Active 1153-char remark
8. 2023-05-18
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,927 · $911/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,927 · $911/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,081
• − Property taxes: −$10,927
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,315
• − Management: −$3,315
• − HOA: −$1,980
• − Depreciation: −$12,506
• Taxable loss: −$16,833
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,040
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,485–$34,455 screening

This well-maintained home offers an inviting open-concept layout with modern finishes and ample space, making it ideal for both everyday living and entertaining.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Trim bushes — Maintains property value ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernizes and improves energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 58/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Jerry & Linda Moore Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Celina H S C TX #320/1,632 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 25% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Short sale special listing conditionPossession at closing/funding
• Financial info: No second mortgage indicatedLoan type listed as treat as clear
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOAMonthly association fee (managed by Insight Management) covering front and back yard maintenance and grounds maintenanceCommunity features include clubhouse, community pool, playground, jogging/bike path, sidewalks, and tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (approximately 21' wide x 17' long)2 covered parking spacesAlley access
• Security: Fire alarmSmoke detectorsAudio and video surveillance devices present
• Utilities: City waterCity sewerNatural gas availableIndividual gas meterIndividual water meterAsphalt streetsCurbs
• Home design: Single family residenceTwo storiesResidential propertyPreowned (built 2023)Smart home features available
• Construction: Built in 2023Brick and fiber cement exteriorAsphalt roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas rangeDishwasherDisposalIce makerMicrowaveGranite countertops in primary bathroom (granite mentioned in room features)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 with dual sinks, ensuite bath, garden tub, separate shower, and walk-in closetTwo additional bedrooms (located on level 2)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingActive solar heatingCentral air conditioningCeiling fans
• Interior features: Open floorplanEat-in kitchenKitchen islandPantryWindow coveringsTwo living areasOne dining area6 total roomsGas fireplace with gas logs
• Laundry & utility: Utility roomElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookupTankless water heater

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-05-25 Price Changed $429,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $445,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $449,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $469,000 NTREIS
• 2023-05-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+160.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,927 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.