Is 12819 Autumn Woods Dr in Barrett, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.2% cap rate and $-578/mo modeled cash flow at a $272,134 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 12819 Autumn Woods Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.2% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,968/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 30.58

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.3/30.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Schools +3.7/10.0
Rent growth +2.9/5.0
Livability +2.8/5.0
1% rule +1.8/10.0
DSCR +0.7/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$272,134

12819 Autumn Woods Dr · Barrett, TX 77532

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,964 sqft · SingleFamily · 102 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 2-car garage $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

This inviting, single-story home showcases a charming front porch, perfect for relaxing or greeting guests. Step inside to an open floor plan with a great room that creates a spacious environment for gatherings. The versatile den offers a quiet space for work or study. The kitchen is equipped with a functional island, providing ample prep space and a convenient spot for casual meals. Retreat to the primary bedroom, which features a generous walk-in closet. See sales counselor for approximate timing required for move-in ready homes.

Key facts

Central island
Pickle ball courts
Swimming pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $272k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-578 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (23.8% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (27.7% below list).
Recommended offer: $197k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 5.8% in Barrett — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1446 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,821 (27.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.68% ✗
Cap rate: 4.19%
Cash-on-cash: -7.53%
DSCR: 0.67
GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $290,990
List price: $272,134
Delta: -6.48%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1218 Bonnerjee Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,904 (-3%)	2mo	$272,040	$143	81
13038 Dianna Lee Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,979 (+1%)	1mo	$241,590	$122	81
12822 Ivy Creek Ct	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,922 (-2%)	0mo	$262,990	$137	81
12823 Ivy Creek Ct	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,014 (+2%)	1mo	$315,240	$157	80
13046 Dianna Lee Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,979 (+1%)	2mo	$233,490	$118	80
12818 Ivy Creek Ct	0.21mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,922 (-2%)	1mo	$248,640	$129	78
1531 Chimney Springs Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,922 (-2%)	0mo	$255,990	$133	77
12815 Ivy Creek Ct	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,859 (-5%)	1mo	$272,190	$146	75
1339 Sea Oats Dr	0.08mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,157 (+10%)	2mo	$316,990	$147	69
1531 Vanessa Gold Ct	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,737 (-12%)	1mo	$254,990	$147	66
1543 Chimney Springs Dr	0.26mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,157 (+10%)	0mo	$284,991	$132	62
12807 Ivy Creek Ct	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (-13%)	0mo	$220,991	$129	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -33.1%
Equity multiple: -0.07×
Total profit: $-86,798
Equity at exit: $43,388

10-year hold

IRR: -50.6%
Equity multiple: -0.65×
Total profit: $-134,325
Equity at exit: $25,159

Cash invested: $81,477 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 55 active · 27 under contract
Months of supply: 5.3 mo (19%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $254,900 ($138/sqft)
Median days on market: 95 d
This list price: 76% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +7.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77532

Home prices YoY: -28.6%
Rents YoY: 1.5%
Active inventory: 1446
Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,968 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,526
Tax est. 1.5%: −$364 /mo · $4,365/yr
Insurance: −$121
Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
HOA: −$55
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
Net cashflow: $-578

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,699

Max offer price $207,419

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-376	-5% $-477	+0% $-578	+5% $-678	+10% $-779
Rent	-10% $-733	-5% $-655	+0% $-578	+5% $-500	+10% $-422
Rate	-1.0pp $-431	-0.5pp $-504	base $-578	+0.5pp $-653	+1.0pp $-730

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $72,748
Closing costs: $8,730
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13702 Sun Bear Ct Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1899	$1,979	$1.04	31d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Community has curbs and gutters
HOA & community: HOA managed by Transerve Management CompanyAnnual association fee

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage
Security: Smoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Slab foundation
Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement siding constructionComposition roof
Exterior features: DeckPatioPrivate yardBack yard fencingProperty backs to greenbelt/parkConcrete road surface

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveENERGY STAR qualified appliancesTankless water heater
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 14x14)Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10x10)Bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10x10)Additional den on the first floorFamily room on the first floor (approx. 18x30)
Flooring: CarpetPlank flooringTileVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsDouble vanity in bath areas
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioningHas heating and cooling
Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityGranite countersKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantryTub with showerWindow treatmentsKitchen/dining comboProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsWindow coverings
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $272,134 Active 102 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $272,134 Active 100 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $272,134 Active 99 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $272,134 Active 98 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $272,134 Active 97 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $272,134 Active 94 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $272,134 Active 93 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $272,134 Active 92 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $272,134 Active 91 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $272,134 Active 89 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $272,134 Active 87 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $272,134 Active 86 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $272,134 Active 85 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $272,134 Active 84 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $272,134 Active 83 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $272,134 Active 81 DOM
2026-07-18

pricedays on market $272,134 Active 80 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $271,835 Active 79 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $271,835 Active 78 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $271,835 Active 77 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $271,835 Active 76 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $271,835 Active 75 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $271,835 Active 74 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $271,835 Active 73 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $271,835 Active 72 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $271,835 Active 70 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $271,835 Active 69 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $271,835 Active 68 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $271,835 Active 67 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $271,835 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $271,835 Active 65 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $271,835 Active 64 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $271,835 Active 63 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $271,835 Active 62 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $271,835 Active 61 DOM
2026-06-27

pricedays on market $271,835 Active 60 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $268,835 Active 57 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $268,835 Active 55 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $268,835 Active 54 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $268,835 Active 51 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $268,835 Active 50 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $268,835 Active 49 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $268,835 Active 48 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $268,835 Active 46 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $268,835 Active 42 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $268,835 Active 41 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $268,835 Active 40 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $268,835 Active 37 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $268,835 Active 36 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $268,835 Active 35 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $23,619
− Mortgage interest: −$16,300
− Property taxes: −$4,365
− Insurance: −$2,252
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,889
− Management: −$1,889
− HOA: −$660
− Depreciation: −$8,465
Taxable loss: −$12,203

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,929
After-tax cash flow: $-4,002/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Sweetgrass Village is under construction and is expected to be move-in ready. It features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and an attached 2-car garage. The home is zoned to Crosby ISD and is walking distance to the community clubhouse, swimming pool, splashpad, and pickleball courts. The property is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

Both Community clubhouse, swimming pool, splashpad, and pickleball courts — These amenities enhance the property's appeal for both resale and rental. ↑
Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained lawn and clean driveway improve the property's curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters. ↑
Both Interior updates — Updating the interior with modern fixtures and finishes can increase the property's value and attract more buyers or renters. ↑
Both Exterior updates — Updating the exterior siding and paint can enhance the property's curb appeal and attract more buyers or renters. ↑
Both HVAC and mechanical systems — Upgrading the HVAC and mechanical systems can improve the property's energy efficiency and attract more buyers or renters. ↑
Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating the kitchen and bathrooms with modern fixtures and finishes can increase the property's value and attract more buyers or renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Crosby Middle F TX #786/1,662 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Highpoint School East (Crosby)

Schools (NCES district)

District: Crosby ISD
NCES district ID: 4815750
Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $61,079
Composite: 35.14/100
National rank: #5012
State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 56/100

Livability — Barrett

Score: 56/100
State rank: #1335
US rank: #22991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Barrett, TX
County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 33,780
Household income: $92,201
Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
Current HPI: 264.0126
Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-1.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

2026-05-21 Price Changed $268,835 Zillow
2026-05-20 Price Changed $268,835 HARMLS
2026-05-18 Listed $278,835 Zillow
2026-05-14 Price Changed $278,835 HARMLS
2026-04-28 Listed $272,835 HARMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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