12819 Autumn Woods Dr · Barrett, TX 77532

$255,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,964 sqft · Land · 13 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition Garage $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This inviting, single-story home showcases a charming front porch, perfect for relaxing or greeting guests. Step inside to an open floor plan with a great room that creates a spacious environment for gatherings. The versatile den offers a quiet space for work or study. The kitchen is equipped with a functional island, providing ample prep space and a convenient spot for casual meals. Retreat to the primary bedroom, which features a generous walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Pickle ball courts
• New construction
• Swimming pool

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• PREMIUM LOT
• NO BACK NEIGHBORS
• SWIMMING POOL
• SPLASHPAD
• PICKLE BALL COURTS

🏗️ New construction. The $255,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $290,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $256k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Highpoint School East (Crosby) (20 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1919 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,912 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.29%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,990
• List price: $255,995
• Delta: -12.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12727 Cobbler Glenn Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,922 (-2%)	1mo	$268,990	$140	79
1511 Chimney Springs Dr	0.26mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,157 (+10%)	0mo	$298,990	$139	62
12927 Carla Scanlan Ln	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,633 (-17%)	0mo	$255,585	$157	61
12834 Shaily Faith Ct	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (-18%)	1mo	$233,990	$146	60
2435 Evergreen Falls Dr	0.97mi	3/2.5	1,826 (-7%)	2mo	$282,540	$155	50
11534 Heritage Wind Dr	1.02mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,785 (-9%)	1mo	$229,900	$129	42
11630 Heritage Wind Dr	0.98mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,785 (-9%)	1mo	$224,900	$126	42
11506 Heritage Wind Dr	1.06mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,785 (-9%)	2mo	$259,900	$146	42
11510 Heritage Wind Dr	1.04mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,260 (+15%)	1mo	$282,900	$125	32
11522 Heritage Wind Dr	1.03mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,260 (+15%)	1mo	$279,900	$124	32
2431 Evergreen Falls Dr	0.97mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,260 (+15%)	1mo	$311,309	$138	30
2507 Evergreen Falls Dr	0.97mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,260 (+15%)	2mo	$308,290	$136	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-56,131
• Equity at exit: $43,388

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-69,557
• Equity at exit: $25,159

Cash invested: $81,477 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1919
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,189 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,526
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,380/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,300

Max offer price $275,475

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $77	-5% $-5	+0% $-88	+5% $-170	+10% $-253
Rent	-10% $-261	-5% $-174	+0% $-88	+5% $-1	+10% $85
Rate	-1.0pp $59	-0.5pp $-14	base $-88	+0.5pp $-163	+1.0pp $-240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,748
• Closing costs: $8,730
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11606 Prosperity Dr Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,850	$1.44	10d	1	1.04mi
13702 Sun Bear Ct Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1899	$1,899	$1.00	85d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association fee of $660 annuallyCommunity features include curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential property
• Construction: New constructionBuilt in 2026Brick and cement sidingComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: DeckPatioPrivate yardBackyard fenceBacks to a greenbelt or park

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveEnergy Star-qualified appliances
• Flooring: CarpetPlankTileVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heatingCentral electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityEn suite bathroomGranite countersKitchen islandKitchen and family room combinationPantrySplit bedroomsTub and showerWalk-in closetWindow treatmentsKitchen and dining combinationProgrammable thermostatLow-emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $255,995 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $255,995 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $255,995 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $255,995 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $255,995 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $255,995 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $255,995 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $255,995 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $255,995 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $255,995 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $255,995 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on marketlisting id $255,995 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $255,995 Active 181 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $255,995 Active 180 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $255,995 Active 179 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $255,995 Active 178 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $255,995 Active 177 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $255,995 Active 176 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $255,995 Active 175 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $255,995 Active 174 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $255,995 Active 173 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $255,995 Active 172 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $255,995 Active 171 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $255,995 Active 170 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $255,995 Active 169 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $255,995 Active 168 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $255,995 Active 167 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $255,995 Active 166 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $255,995 Active 165 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $255,995 Active 164 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $255,995 Active 163 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $255,995 Active 162 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    price $255,995 Active 161 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $256,995 Active 161 DOM

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    This inviting, single-story home showcases a charming front porch, perfect for relaxing or greeting guests. Step inside to an open floor plan with a great room that creates a spacious environment for gatherings. The versatile den offers a quiet space for work or study. The kitchen is equipped with a functional island, providing ample prep space and a convenient spot for casual meals. Retreat to the primary bedroom, which features a generous walk-in closet.

35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $256,995 Active 160 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $256,995 Active 159 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $256,995 Active 158 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $256,995 Active 157 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $256,995 Active 156 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $256,995 Active 155 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $256,995 Active 154 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $256,995 Active 153 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $256,995 Active 152 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $256,995 Active 151 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $256,995 Active 150 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $256,995 Active 149 DOM

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    This inviting, single-story home showcases a charming front porch, perfect for relaxing or greeting guests. Step inside to an open floor plan with a great room that creates a spacious environment for gatherings. The versatile den offers a quiet space for work or study. The kitchen is equipped with a functional island, providing ample prep space and a convenient spot for casual meals. Retreat to the primary bedroom, which features a generous walk-in closet.

47. 2026-09-23
    pricedays on market $256,995 Active 148 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $257,995 Active 147 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $257,995 Active 146 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $257,995 Active 145 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,380 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,685 · $390/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,305/yr (+$275/mo · 239.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,269
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,300
• − Property taxes: −$1,380
• − Insurance: −$1,455
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,102
• − Management: −$2,102
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$8,465
• Taxable loss: −$6,194
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,487
• After-tax cash flow: $433/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Sweetgrass Village is under construction and is expected to be move-in ready. It features 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and an attached 2-car garage. The home is zoned to Crosby ISD and is walking distance to the community clubhouse, swimming pool, splashpad, and pickleball courts. The property is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Community clubhouse, swimming pool, splashpad, and pickleball courts — These amenities enhance the property's appeal for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained lawn and clean driveway improve the property's curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Updating the interior with modern fixtures and finishes can increase the property's value and attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Exterior updates — Updating the exterior siding and paint can enhance the property's curb appeal and attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanical systems — Upgrading the HVAC and mechanical systems can improve the property's energy efficiency and attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating the kitchen and bathrooms with modern fixtures and finishes can increase the property's value and attract more buyers or renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Crosby Middle F TX #786/1,662 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Highpoint School East (Crosby)

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 56/100

Livability — Barrett

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1335
• US rank: #22991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barrett, TX
• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association fee of $660 annuallyCommunity features include curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential property
• Construction: New constructionBuilt in 2026Brick and cement sidingComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: DeckPatioPrivate yardBackyard fenceBacks to a greenbelt or park

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveEnergy Star-qualified appliances
• Flooring: CarpetPlankTileVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central gas heatingCentral electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityEn suite bathroomGranite countersKitchen islandKitchen and family room combinationPantrySplit bedroomsTub and showerWalk-in closetWindow treatmentsKitchen and dining combinationProgrammable thermostatLow-emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

Price history

-6.2% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-10-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-10-26 Listed $255,995 HARMLS
• 2026-10-06 Price Changed $255,995 Zillow
• 2026-10-06 Price Changed $255,995 HARMLS
• 2026-09-24 Price Changed $256,995 Zillow
• 2026-09-23 Price Changed $256,995 HARMLS
• 2026-09-10 Price Changed $257,995 Zillow
• 2026-09-09 Price Changed $257,995 HARMLS
• 2026-09-03 Price Changed $259,995 Zillow
• 2026-09-02 Price Changed $259,995 HARMLS
• 2026-08-20 Price Changed $269,995 Zillow
• 2026-08-19 Price Changed $269,995 HARMLS
• 2026-07-18 Price Changed $272,134 Zillow
• 2026-07-17 Price Changed $272,134 HARMLS
• 2026-06-25 Price Changed $271,835 HARMLS
• 2026-06-25 Price Changed $271,835 Zillow
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $268,835 Zillow
• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $268,835 HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $278,835 Zillow
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $278,835 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $272,835 HARMLS