4500 E Martin Way #88 · Olympia, WA 98516

$99,950

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1968

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Why rent when you can own? Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in Candlewood Park. Located in an all-ages community, this home offers an affordable path to homeownership with space rent under $500 per month. The inviting layout provides comfortable living spaces, generous bedrooms, and a private primary suite. Pet lovers will appreciate the per-friendly community, while everyone will enjoy the convenient location close to local amenities. Affordable, comfortable, and ready for its next owner! Hablo espanol.

Key facts

• Convenient location
• Built 1968
• Listed 15 days

Tags

• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• PET-FRIENDLY COMMUNITY
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Estimated annual tax: $197 (2025)
• Financial info: Accepts Cash and Conventional financing
• HOA & community: Land lease of $500/month

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Residential property
• Construction: Manufactured house (double wide)
• Exterior features: Located in the Candlewood park; Follow GPS for directions

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Located in a manufactured home park approved for sale; One-level living

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.6% vs local median 2.4% in Olympia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $692 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.8% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $98,450 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.07%
• DSCR: 2.96
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $58,240
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1350 Alonda Ln NE	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+3%)	7mo	$50,000	$43	60
1519 Alonda Ln NE	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+3%)	8mo	$60,000	$52	58
1507 Alonda Ln NE	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+11%)	1mo	$35,000	$28	47
1414 Alonda Ln NE	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,247 (+11%)	17mo	$60,000	$48	34
4611 17th Ln NE #17	0.73mi	2/1.0	1,056 (-6%)	22mo	$142,500	$135	34
1417 Alonda Ln NE	0.67mi	2/1.5	960 (-14%)	13mo	$65,000	$68	32
2005 Alonda Ln NE	0.70mi	2/1.0	960 (-14%)	23mo	$49,500	$52	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $50,780
• Equity at exit: $14,903

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.82×
• Total profit: $134,840
• Equity at exit: $8,642

Cash invested: $27,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98516

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,043 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $249/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $1,028

Break-even live

Break-even rent $742

Max offer price $99,950

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,988
• Closing costs: $2,998
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4410 6th Ave SE Lacey, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	980	$2,010	$2.05	13d	14	0.42mi
925 Bradley St NE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1403	$2,650	$1.89	43d	1	0.50mi
927 College Ln NE Unit A Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1390	$2,300	$1.65	43d	1	0.51mi
3724 Ensign Rd NE Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,849	$2.01	13d	5	0.63mi
606 Lilly Rd NE Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	966	$2,725	$2.82	13d	7	0.70mi
522 Lilly Rd NE Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	781	$1,550	$1.98	13d	6	0.70mi
122 Lilly Rd NE Unit 507 Olympia, WA	3.0	1.0	800	$1,900	$2.38	21d	1	0.71mi
122 Lilly Rd NE Unit 104 Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,700	$2.27	21d	1	0.71mi
1212 Willow St SE Unit 1212-I Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0	871	$1,595	$1.83	21d	1	0.91mi
5224 15th Ave NE Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	881	$2,165	$2.46	13d	258	0.92mi
3806 12th Ave SE Lacey, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,775	$2.22	13d	3	0.93mi
5499 15th Ave NE Lacey, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	904	$2,106	$2.33	13d	26	0.93mi
1224 Willow St SE Lacey, WA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	21d	1	0.93mi
1848 Mapleview Ct NE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1489	$3,000	$2.01	43d	1	0.93mi
501 Franz Anderson Rd SE Olympia, WA	1.0	1.0	720	$1,598	$2.22	13d	3	1.01mi
1219 East St SE Apt 3 Lacey, WA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,615	$1.90	43d	1	1.03mi
801 Lilly Rd NE Apt 123 Olympia, WA	1.0	1.0	762	$1,700	$2.23	43d	1	1.05mi
4314 14th Way SE Lacey, WA	2.0	1.0	938	$2,500	$2.67	43d	1	1.14mi
1330 Fones Rd SE Olympia, WA	2.0	2.5	1406	$2,250	$1.60	21d	4	1.25mi
6103 Carmel Ln SE Lacey, WA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,350	$1.57	21d	1	1.31mi
1420 Fones Rd SE Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1040	$2,062	$1.98	13d	2	1.34mi
1400 Fones Rd SE Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	813	$1,900	$2.34	13d	6	1.34mi
660 Malibu Dr SE Lacey, WA	1.0	1.0	824	$1,900	$2.31	43d	1	1.36mi
1617 Elizabeth St SE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1014	$2,350	$2.32	13d	1	1.39mi
5805 13th Ave SE Unit C Lacey, WA	2.0	1.0	882	$1,600	$1.81	43d	1	1.47mi
1405 Clearbrook Dr SE Lacey, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	737	$1,976	$2.68	43d	3	1.47mi
6110 Pacific Ave SE Lacey, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	632	$1,459	$2.31	21d	9	1.48mi
6102 Glen Mary Ln SE Unit A Lacey, WA	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,830	$1.52	13d	1	1.48mi
325 Pattison St NE Unit 4 Olympia, WA	2.0	1.5	1140	$1,565	$1.37	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,950 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,950 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,950 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,950 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,950 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,950 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,950 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,950 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,950 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 544-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $99,950 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $249 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $980 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$731/yr (+$61/mo · 293.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,520
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,599
• − Property taxes: −$249
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,962
• − Management: −$1,962
• − Depreciation: −$2,908
• Taxable income: $11,342
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,722
• After-tax cash flow: $9,610/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Thurston Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5305850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,338
• Composite: 51.09/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #80 of 291 in WA

Livability — Olympia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #1036

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Olympia, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 98,428
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 29,177
• Household income: $98,892
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1202.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Two or more races 14% Asian 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 4% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -203.16%
• Current HPI: 323.7121
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.75%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $99,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $249 · +26.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.