3181 NE 111th Pl · Jasper, FL 32052

$145,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,356 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2010 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEAUTIFUL LARGE 4BD/3BA HOME LOCATED CLOSE TO TOWN YET IN THE COUNTRY. SIT ON THE SCREENED BACK PORCH AND WATCH THE ANIMALS PLAY. PROPERTY HAS FENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND PAVED DRIVE TO THE HOME.

Key facts

• Large storage shed
• 1 acre lot
• 3 garage spots

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN WITH AN ISLAND
• DEDICATED DINING ROOM
• LARGE FRONT AND BACK DECKS
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• FULLY FENCED FRONT YARD
• MANUAL GATED ENTRANCE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 3-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Chain link fencing; Shed(s); Workshop; 1 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-717/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#731 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Hamilton (rural): math 34% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #68 of 73 in FL (top 93%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 26 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (6.7% local appreciation)).
• Hamilton County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $145k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,818 (11.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.77%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.69% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $44,117
• Equity at exit: $97,528

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.24×
• Total profit: $131,551
• Equity at exit: $182,644

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32052

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,288 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,079/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,364

Max offer price $134,445

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $22	-5% $-19	+0% $-60	+5% $-101	+10% $-142
Rent	-10% $-162	-5% $-111	+0% $-60	+5% $-9	+10% $42
Rate	-1.0pp $13	-0.5pp $-23	base $-60	+0.5pp $-97	+1.0pp $-136

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $145,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,079 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,079 · $257/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 16 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$3,079
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,237
• − Management: −$1,237
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$3,160
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$758
• After-tax cash flow: $41/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton
• NCES district ID: 1200720
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $36,461
• Composite: 26.18/100
• National rank: #7267
• State rank: #68 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jasper

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #731
• US rank: #15678

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,073

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,405 people
• By 2030: 13,031 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 12,385 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 11,740 · -12.4%
• By 2075: 9,347 · -30.3%
• By 2100: 6,344 · -52.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.0) · D 30.1% · R 69.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.4pp toward R · 2008: -14.6pp · 2024: -39.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.0 2020: R+31.8 2016: R+28.2 2012: R+16.9 2008: R+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.69%
• Current HPI: 316.4797
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+52.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $145,000 NFMLS
• 2018-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-09 Sold (MLS) $95,000 NFMLS

Property tax history

+14.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,079 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.