Ashton Plan · South Lebanon, OH 45039

$335,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,354 sqft · SingleFamily · 261 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Picture yourself in The Ashton - a flexible ranch-style floorplan by Arbor Homes! Starting at 1,356 square feet, The Ashton offers a split layout ideal for families or first-time homeowners. Featuring three bedrooms and two full baths, this home provides plenty of room to personalize with your choice of finishes and upgrades. Step inside from the inviting front porch to a bright, open layout. Two secondary bedrooms sit off the foyer, perfect for guests or a home office, with a full bathroom conveniently in between. Throughout the home, multiple closets provide generous storage space. The spacious great room flows seamlessly into the modern kitchen, designed for entertaining or everyday meals. Add an optional sunroom to enjoy natural light year-round. On the opposite side of the home, the private primary suite offers a large walk-in closet and an optional double bowl vanity with various shower configurations. With customizable elevations and design options, The Ashton gives you the flexibility to create a home that truly fits your lifestyle.

Key facts

• Split floorplan
• Sunroom
• Great room

Tags

• FLEXIBLE RANCH STYLE FLOORPLAN
• SPLIT FLOORPLAN
• MULTIPLE ELEVATION OPTIONS
• GREAT ROOM
• SUNROOM
• LARGE WALK IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $335,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $340,210.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $336k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $325k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $284k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in South Lebanon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#279 in OH, #4,589 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Little Miami Local (rural): math 67% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #140 of 656 in OH (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 126 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,224 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (474 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($109k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 261 days — a 12% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $283,973 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 261 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.36%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $340,210
• List price: $335,990
• Delta: -1.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1172 Wild Flower Ln	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,416 (+5%)	0mo	$335,000	$237	81
988 Weeping Willow Ln	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,418 (+5%)	3mo	$320,000	$226	81
6520 Sioux Pass Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+1%)	0mo	$337,000	$246	73
680 Stoneharbor Ln	0.51mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,312 (-3%)	0mo	$285,000	$217	64
630 Weeping Willow Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,251 (-8%)	3mo	$340,000	$272	62
1313 Meadow Vista Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,262 (-7%)	10mo	$298,500	$237	61
6141 Glenarbor Dr	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,235 (-9%)	11mo	$275,000	$223	59
918 Wild Flower Ln	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,510 (+12%)	12mo	$330,000	$219	58
1304 Shadowood Trl	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+13%)	12mo	$280,000	$182	56
609 Jewelweed Ct	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,500 (+11%)	11mo	$340,000	$227	51
6846 Pelicans Run Ct	0.57mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,416 (+5%)	10mo	$337,500	$238	51
6804 Sandharbor Ct	0.53mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,490 (+10%)	12mo	$329,500	$221	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $191,660
• Equity at exit: $306,488

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.32×
• Total profit: $601,836
• Equity at exit: $660,952

Cash invested: $95,259 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45039

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,840 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,784
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$425 /mo · $5,103/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$596
• Net cashflow: $-108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,976

Max offer price $324,622

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,052
• Closing costs: $10,206
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1409 Grandin Rd Maineville, OH	2.0	2.0	1460	$4,200	$2.88	1d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $335,990 Active 261 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $335,990 Active 260 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $335,990 Active 259 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $335,990 Active 258 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $335,990 Active 256 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $335,990 Active 252 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $335,990 Active 251 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $335,990 Active 250 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $335,990 Active 246 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $335,990 Active 245 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $335,990 Active 244 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $335,990 Active 243 DOM
13. 2025-10-01
    listed $335,990 Active 1056-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1056 chars)

    Picture yourself in The Ashton - a flexible ranch-style floorplan by Arbor Homes! Starting at 1,356 square feet, The Ashton offers a split layout ideal for families or first-time homeowners. Featuring three bedrooms and two full baths, this home provides plenty of room to personalize with your choice of finishes and upgrades. Step inside from the inviting front porch to a bright, open layout. Two secondary bedrooms sit off the foyer, perfect for guests or a home office, with a full bathroom conveniently in between. Throughout the home, multiple closets provide generous storage space. The spacious great room flows seamlessly into the modern kitchen, designed for entertaining or everyday meals. Add an optional sunroom to enjoy natural light year-round. On the opposite side of the home, the private primary suite offers a large walk-in closet and an optional double bowl vanity with various shower configurations. With customizable elevations and design options, The Ashton gives you the flexibility to create a home that truly fits your lifestyle.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,077
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,057
• − Property taxes: −$5,103
• − Insurance: −$1,701
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,726
• − Management: −$2,726
• − Depreciation: −$9,897
• Taxable loss: −$7,134
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,712
• After-tax cash flow: $419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in good condition with a cosmetic rehab level, featuring a well-maintained exterior, interior, and landscaping. Updates to the exterior siding, landscaping, and interior touch-ups can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and increase the home's value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers.
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can refresh the interior and make it more appealing to potential buyers.
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating the kitchen and bathrooms can increase the home's value and attract more potential buyers.
• Both HVAC and mechanical system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC and mechanical system can improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, making it more attractive to potential buyers.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can refresh the interior and make it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Updating the kitchen and bathrooms can increase the home's value and attract more potential buyers. ↑
• Both HVAC and mechanical system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC and mechanical system can improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, making it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Little Miami Local
• NCES district ID: 3905044
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $74,949
• Composite: 60.5/100
• National rank: #844
• State rank: #140 of 656 in OH

Livability — South Lebanon

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #279
• US rank: #4589

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Warren County · 196,906 people
• City population: 7,053
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 28,335
• Household income: $108,794
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,603 people
• By 2030: 259,345 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 277,666 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 289,599 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 311,681 · +25.4%
• By 2100: 302,738 · +21.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.5) · D 33.8% · R 65.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: -36.1pp · 2024: -31.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.5 2020: R+30.8 2016: R+37.6 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.63%
• Current HPI: 568.09
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.42%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-10-01 Listed $335,990 Zillow