4770 Cove Garden Rd · North Garden, VA 22959

$395,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1987 2.12 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your rural retreat in the heart of Albemarle County! Nestled on a sprawling 2.12-acre lot, this charming single-story home offers modern convince with comfort and privacy. The home offers a generous front porch, beckoning you to unwind and soak in the tranquility of your surroundings. Step inside to discover a meticulously renovated interior adorned with luxury vinyl plank flooring (LVP) throughout, creating a seamless flow from room to room. Brand new appliances and custom tile work create a welcoming eat-in kitchen. After a long day, retreat to the primary bedroom sanctuary, complete with a spacious walk-in closet and an attached bath for added convenience and privacy. Two additional bedrooms offer versatility, perfect for children’s rooms, accommodating guests or creating a home office or hobby room to suit your needs. Outside, a poured concrete patio provides the ideal spot for outdoor dining. With over two acres of land to call your own, the possibilities for outdoor recreation and relaxation are endless. Experience the serenity of country living without sacrificing modern comforts in this meticulously crafted home in rural Albemarle County.

Key facts

• 2.12 acre lot
• Built 1987
• Listed 4 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 2.12 acres

Exterior

• Utilities: Private well water; Conventional sewer; Fiber optic available
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One story; Updated/remodeled
• Construction: Stick-built construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch; Porch; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning (heat pump)
• Interior features: Remodeled; Primary bedroom on the main level; Walk-in closet(s); Recessed lighting
• Laundry & utility: Stacked laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $395k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-647 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (28.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (41.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (41.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Red Hill Elementary (math 44% / reading 54%, grade D, #742 of 1,108 statewide, top 70%, 201 students, 68% FRL); Leslie H. Walton Middle (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A, #38 of 342 statewide, top 11%, 339 students, 38% FRL); Monticello High (math 49% / reading 81%, grade B, #210 of 319 statewide, top 66%, 1,229 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 23% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$68k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 13% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $340k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,006 (41.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.02%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $173,811
• Equity at exit: $355,847

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $544,021
• Equity at exit: $767,398

Cash invested: $110,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22959

• Home prices YoY: 10.1%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 14.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,330 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax from tax record: −$252 /mo · $3,020/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-647

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,149

Max offer price $280,719

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,750
• Closing costs: $11,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $395,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $395,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $395,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-05-20
   historical $395,000
5. 2024-08-08
   soldstatus $339,750
6. 2024-08-07
   soldstatus $339,750 Sold 1181-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1181 chars)

   Welcome to your rural retreat in the heart of Albemarle County! Nestled on a sprawling 2.12-acre lot, this charming single-story home offers modern convince with comfort and privacy. The home offers a generous front porch, beckoning you to unwind and soak in the tranquility of your surroundings. Step inside to discover a meticulously renovated interior adorned with luxury vinyl plank flooring (LVP) throughout, creating a seamless flow from room to room. Brand new appliances and custom tile work create a welcoming eat-in kitchen. After a long day, retreat to the primary bedroom sanctuary, complete with a spacious walk-in closet and an attached bath for added convenience and privacy. Two additional bedrooms offer versatility, perfect for children’s rooms, accommodating guests or creating a home office or hobby room to suit your needs. Outside, a poured concrete patio provides the ideal spot for outdoor dining. With over two acres of land to call your own, the possibilities for outdoor recreation and relaxation are endless. Experience the serenity of country living without sacrificing modern comforts in this meticulously crafted home in rural Albemarle County.

7. 2024-06-16
   status Pending 1181-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1181 chars)

   Welcome to your rural retreat in the heart of Albemarle County! Nestled on a sprawling 2.12-acre lot, this charming single-story home offers modern convince with comfort and privacy. The home offers a generous front porch, beckoning you to unwind and soak in the tranquility of your surroundings. Step inside to discover a meticulously renovated interior adorned with luxury vinyl plank flooring (LVP) throughout, creating a seamless flow from room to room. Brand new appliances and custom tile work create a welcoming eat-in kitchen. After a long day, retreat to the primary bedroom sanctuary, complete with a spacious walk-in closet and an attached bath for added convenience and privacy. Two additional bedrooms offer versatility, perfect for children’s rooms, accommodating guests or creating a home office or hobby room to suit your needs. Outside, a poured concrete patio provides the ideal spot for outdoor dining. With over two acres of land to call your own, the possibilities for outdoor recreation and relaxation are endless. Experience the serenity of country living without sacrificing modern comforts in this meticulously crafted home in rural Albemarle County.

8. 2024-06-04
   listed $349,900 Active 1181-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1181 chars)

   Welcome to your rural retreat in the heart of Albemarle County! Nestled on a sprawling 2.12-acre lot, this charming single-story home offers modern convince with comfort and privacy. The home offers a generous front porch, beckoning you to unwind and soak in the tranquility of your surroundings. Step inside to discover a meticulously renovated interior adorned with luxury vinyl plank flooring (LVP) throughout, creating a seamless flow from room to room. Brand new appliances and custom tile work create a welcoming eat-in kitchen. After a long day, retreat to the primary bedroom sanctuary, complete with a spacious walk-in closet and an attached bath for added convenience and privacy. Two additional bedrooms offer versatility, perfect for children’s rooms, accommodating guests or creating a home office or hobby room to suit your needs. Outside, a poured concrete patio provides the ideal spot for outdoor dining. With over two acres of land to call your own, the possibilities for outdoor recreation and relaxation are endless. Experience the serenity of country living without sacrificing modern comforts in this meticulously crafted home in rural Albemarle County.

9. 2024-06-03
   historical
10. 2024-04-17
    listed $379,900 Active
11. 2024-04-11
    historical
12. 2023-12-27
    soldstatus $180,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,239 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: +$219/yr (+$18/mo · 7.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,961
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,126
• − Property taxes: −$3,020
• − Insurance: −$1,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,237
• − Management: −$2,237
• − Depreciation: −$11,491
• Taxable loss: −$15,125
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,630
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,133/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albemarle County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100090
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,851
• Composite: 62.28/100
• National rank: #698
• State rank: #14 of 131 in VA

Livability — North Garden

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,802

Population outlook (Albemarle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,403 people
• By 2030: 125,829 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 137,705 · +15.3%
• By 2050: 148,058 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 172,223 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 185,628 · +55.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Albemarle

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.1) · D 66.3% · R 32.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.1pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 34.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.1 2020: D+33.5 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+12.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.98%
• Current HPI: 283.4912
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+119.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Coming Soon $395,000 CAAR
• 2024-08-08 Sold (Public Records) $339,750 Public Records
• 2024-08-07 Sold (MLS) $339,750 CAAR
• 2024-06-16 Pending — CAAR
• 2024-06-04 Listed $349,900 CAAR
• 2024-06-03 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-04-17 Listed $379,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-04-11 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-12-27 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,020 · +48.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.