2701 N Kings Arms Cir · Centerville, OH 45440

$165,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,386 sqft · Condo public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1973 $291/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious and move-in ready condo in Fox Run! This Centerville condo features 2 large bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The main floor offers two separate living spaces, providing flexibility for entertaining, relaxing, or a home office setup. Enjoy outdoor living on the deck and the convenience of an oversized 1-car garage with extra storage space. Recent updates include new carpet on the stairs and in one bedroom. Comfortable, functional, and well-maintained — this condo is ready to welcome you home.

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• Extra storage space
• Recent updates

Tags

• MOVE-IN READY
• TWO SEPARATE LIVING SPACES
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• OVERSIZED GARAGE
• EXTRA STORAGE SPACE
• RECENT UPDATES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed for sale
• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Apple Property Management; Monthly HOA fee of $291; HOA covers insurance, grounds and structure maintenance, pool(s), snow removal, tennis courts, and trash

Exterior

• Parking: Attached/one-car garage
• Utilities: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Home design: 2-story home; Entry level: 1; Shingle siding
• Construction: Shingle siding construction
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Second-floor bedroom (17 x 12); Second-floor bedroom (18 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Partial basement with walk-out access; One wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.9% in Centerville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#45 in OH, #604 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F.
• Centerville City (suburban): math 62% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #163 of 656 in OH (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Centerville Primary Village North (607 students, 18% FRL); Hadley E Watts Middle School (math 58% / reading 73%, grade A-, #186 of 654 statewide, top 29%, 687 students, 16% FRL); Centerville High School (math 60% / reading 84%, grade B+, #89 of 781 statewide, top 12%, 2,755 students, 15% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 119 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $165k implies a 120% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.11%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-13,674
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $13,633
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45440

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,016 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,514/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$291
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,816

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $252	-5% $205	+0% $158	+5% $112	+10% $65
Rent	-10% $-1	-5% $79	+0% $158	+5% $238	+10% $317
Rate	-1.0pp $241	-0.5pp $200	base $158	+0.5pp $115	+1.0pp $72

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5685 Coach Dr E Apt E Kettering, OH	3.0	2.0	1146	$1,375	$1.20	45d	1	0.64mi
4500 Dogwood Cir E Centerville, OH	1.0	1.5	1213	$2,668	$2.20	45d	2	0.81mi
1635 Autumn Spice Pl Unit NA Dayton, OH	3.0	2.5	1651	$2,725	$1.65	4d	1	0.87mi
1635 Autumn Spice Pl Dayton, OH	3.0	2.5	1651	$2,850	$1.73	25d	1	0.87mi
6591 Brigham Sq #7 Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1077	$1,500	$1.39	23d	1	0.88mi
515 Kilkenny Ct Unit NA Sugarcreek Township, OH	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,545	$1.70	16d	1	0.90mi
4838 Wilmington Pike Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1463	$2,650	$1.81	25d	1	1.02mi
6620 Green Branch Dr #4 Centerville, OH	2.0	2.0	987	$1,375	$1.39	4d	1	1.04mi
1848 Chimney Ln Kettering, OH	2.0	1.0	956	$1,195	$1.25	4d	1	1.18mi
4516 Drayton Ct Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,550	$1.77	13d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $291 · $3,492/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-19
   listed $165,000 Active
3. 1990-12-17
   soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,514 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,544 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$30/yr (+$3/mo · 1.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,514
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,935
• − Management: −$1,935
• − HOA: −$3,492
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$551
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$132
• After-tax cash flow: $2,031/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centerville City
• NCES district ID: 3904373
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,985
• Composite: 58.44/100
• National rank: #1005
• State rank: #163 of 656 in OH

Livability — Centerville

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #604

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centerville, OH
• County: Greene County · 132,120 people
• City population: 38,712
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 22,358
• Household income: $82,383
• Rent vs Own: 37.6% rent · 62.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 626.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -168.53%
• Current HPI: 217.1026
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.35%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+120.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $165,000 Dayton MLS
• 1990-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,514 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.