907 Lloyds Chapel Rd · Mount Carmel, TN 37642

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1955 0.55 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

INVESTOR SPECIAL!!! Check out this quaint 2bedroom 1 bath home in need of some TLC. The perfect opportunity for investors or just anyone looking for a project.

Key facts

• 0.55 acre lot
• Built 1955
• Listed 16 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed in fixer condition

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Sewer: unknown
• Home design: Single-family house; One story
• Construction: Aluminum siding, concrete, and frame construction; Built as a one-level structure
• Exterior features: Level lot; County road frontage; No fencing; Asphalt roof; Lot dimensions approximately 200 x 120 (0.55 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Aluminum window frames; Metal fireplace; Five total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $525 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.0% vs local median 4.2% in Mount Carmel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#140 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hawkins County (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #93 of 139 in TN (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Church Hill Elementary (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #369 of 952 statewide, top 42%, 328 students, 0% FRL); Church Hill Intermediate School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #128 of 333 statewide, top 40%, 372 students, 0% FRL); Volunteer High School (math 19% / reading 37%, grade F, #101 of 332 statewide, top 30%, 1,045 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 57% district-wide (57 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Hawkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hawkins County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,400 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.33%
• DSCR: 3.82
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $26,965
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 59.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.95×
• Total profit: $66,642
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37642

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,050 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$12 /mo · $146/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $525

Break-even live

Break-even rent $386

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $547	-5% $536	+0% $525	+5% $513	+10% $502
Rent	-10% $442	-5% $483	+0% $525	+5% $566	+10% $608
Rate	-1.0pp $545	-0.5pp $535	base $525	+0.5pp $514	+1.0pp $504

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $40,000 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $40,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $40,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $40,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $40,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $40,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $40,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $40,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-05-25
    listed $40,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $146 · $12/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $284 · $24/mo
• Expected delta: +$138/yr (+$12/mo · 94.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,603
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$146
• − Insurance: −$998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,008
• − Management: −$1,008
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $6,039
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,449
• After-tax cash flow: $4,846/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawkins County
• NCES district ID: 4701740
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $37,555
• Composite: 20.45/100
• National rank: #8581
• State rank: #93 of 139 in TN

Livability — Mount Carmel

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #12696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,504
• Population (ZIP): 14,491

Population outlook (Hawkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,226 people
• By 2030: 53,784 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 50,015 · -9.4%
• By 2050: 45,682 · -17.3%
• By 2075: 36,211 · -34.4%
• By 2100: 26,536 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Iranian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Hawkins

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.8) · D 15.2% · R 84.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.9pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -68.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.8 2020: R+65.8 2016: R+63.4 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.69%
• Current HPI: 297.1526
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $40,000 LAAR

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $146 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.