657 Parrish Rd · Seven Oaks, TX 77351

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Manufactured public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2002 1.00 ac lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 657 Parrish Rd! A Charming 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath Country Home on 1 Acre – Recently Updated! Nestled on a spacious 1-acre lot, this beautiful refreshed 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home offers the perfect blend of quiet country living. Inside you'll find an updated interior featuring brand-new flooring throughout, fresh paint, modern light fixtures brightening every room, new countertops throughout (raw butcher block island- your pick on stain) for an overall clean, refreshed aesthetic. Walk-in closets in every room! Every detail has been carefully updated to curate a move-in ready home ideal for all interested buyers! Outside, discover a wrap-around porch and detached shed - This versatile space offers endless potential as a workshop, storage area, or even a rustic camphouse or hobby space. This property offers the best of both worlds—peaceful country living with the comforts of modern updates being minutes from Livingston for local shopping & dining!

Key facts

• Private well
• Wraparound porch
• Detached shed

Tags

• WRAPAROUND PORCH
• DETACHED SHED
• PRIVATE WELL
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• ASPHALT ROAD FRONTAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Road surface: asphalt; Lot size: 1.0 acre

Exterior

• Utilities: Water from well; Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Faces northeast; Built in 2002
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Patio; Private yard; Storage shed(s); Side yard; Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor) — 14x14; Bedroom (first floor) — 12x12; Bedroom (first floor) — 12x12; Three total rooms (3)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Double vanity; Kitchen island; Pantry; Separate shower; Vaulted ceilings

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,025 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Leggett ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #1,047 of 1,141 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Leggett H S (math 5% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,415 of 1,632 statewide, top 87%, 80 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 68% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1186 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.96%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-3,893
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $19,809
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1186
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,522 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,165

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 693-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $135,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,875 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$596/yr (+$50/mo · 31.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,267
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,461
• − Management: −$1,461
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $1,305
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$313
• After-tax cash flow: $3,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leggett ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827120
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,336
• Composite: 26.42/100
• National rank: #12651
• State rank: #1047 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Seven Oaks

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1025
• US rank: #18191

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-08-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-08-07 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-07-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-07-01 Listed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2015-08-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,875 · +16.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.