437 Cornwall Ave · Buffalo, NY 14215

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,737 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 136 Days on market

Built 1920 4,375 sqft lot ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 437 Cornwall, a 3-bedroom home offering 1,737 square feet of living space. This property features a spacious living area and a functional kitchen with ample cabinet space. All three bedrooms are generously sized, providing flexibility. The detached two-car garage adds convenience and extra storage, perfect for vehicles or hobbies. Enjoy the large backyard—ideal for relaxing, gardening, or entertaining. This home blends comfort and convenience.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Spacious living area
• Large backyard

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• DETACHED TWO-CAR GARAGE
• LARGE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $589 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 237 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.67%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $184,122
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
353 Warwick Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,611 (-7%)	1mo	$161,800	$100	70
127 Durham Ave	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,550 (-11%)	1mo	$216,000	$139	66
624 Kensington Ave	0.53mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,742 (+0%)	8mo	$95,000	$55	61
597 Norfolk Ave	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,490 (-14%)	4mo	$160,000	$107	58
66 Maple Ridge Ave	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,994 (+15%)	5mo	$150,000	$75	56
365 Wyoming Ave	0.20mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,922 (+11%)	12mo	$85,000	$44	56
92 Fernhill Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,494 (-14%)	13mo	$215,000	$144	56
101 Marigold Ave	0.71mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,687 (-3%)	12mo	$200,000	$119	47
34 Copsewood Ave	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,602 (-8%)	6mo	$170,000	$106	42
59 Hempstead Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-12%)	11mo	$195,000	$127	41
17 Elmer Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,496 (-14%)	9mo	$150,000	$100	38
49 Elmer Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,503 (-14%)	14mo	$142,500	$95	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.85×
• Total profit: $20,321
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $52,696
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14215

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 237
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,489 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$313
• Net cashflow: $589

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
74 Dorris Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	43d	1	0.33mi
71 Gerald Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1773	$1,100	$0.62	43d	1	0.58mi
25 Parkridge Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1914	$1,350	$0.71	14d	1	0.59mi
110 Gerald Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	2098	$1,100	$0.52	23d	1	0.64mi
216 Newburgh Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1690	$1,150	$0.68	23d	1	0.79mi
517 Goodyear Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1559	$1,800	$1.15	19d	1	1.15mi
563 Humboldt Pkwy Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2004	$1,200	$0.60	23d	1	1.23mi
73 Inter Park Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2080	$1,300	$0.62	14d	1	1.23mi
189 Westminster Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1065	$1,595	$1.50	10d	1	1.24mi
89 Lasalle Ave Buffalo, NY	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1024	$2,291	$2.24	1d	10	1.31mi
65 Domedion Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1632	$1,500	$0.92	1d	1	1.31mi
76 Vernon Pl Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,445	$1.21	14d	1	1.32mi
76 Vernon Pl Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,595	$1.34	14d	1	1.32mi
263 Minnesota Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1242	$1,500	$1.21	14d	1	1.33mi
179 Donaldson Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	3d	1	1.34mi
184 Butler Ave Unit 1545840P Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1496	$3,226	$2.16	14d	1	1.39mi
265 Lisbon Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	43d	1	1.40mi
222 Lisbon Ave Unit Upper Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	43d	1	1.43mi
222 Lisbon Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	23d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-01-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-13
   price $85,000
3. 2025-09-09
   listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,862
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,275
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,429
• − Management: −$1,429
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $6,070
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,457
• After-tax cash flow: $5,605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 42,524
• Household income: $44,955
• Rent vs Own: 50.0% rent · 50.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2873.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 67% White 15% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.29%
• Current HPI: 295.2966
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-22.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $85,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-09-09 Listed $110,000 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $103 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.