16216 Tigris Dr · Fairhope, AL 36532

$309,360

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,417 sqft · SingleFamily · 167 Days on market

Built 2025 5,227 sqft lot $36/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

To-Be-Built! Still time to select colors and upgrades on this premier corner lot so don't wait on your chance to personalize this fantastic floorplan! Cottonwood Estates is located just off County Road 32 on River Park Road. The community is close to schools, shopping centers, restaurants, golf courses and local attractions. Popular entertainment venues, like OWA amusement park and the beautiful white sand beaches of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach are a short drive from Cottonwood Estates. The exterior features brick and Hardie board with an attached single garage. As you enter the Sullivan plan, the foyer leads to the fabulous open concept living and kitchen area featuring granite countertop

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Walk-in closet
• Stainless appliances

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $309,360 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $298,987.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $309k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($275/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $269k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.8% in Fairhope — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AL, #3,577 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: J Larry Newton School (math 45% / reading 70%, grade C+, #74 of 627 statewide, top 12%, 827 students, 50% FRL); Fairhope Middle School (math 54% / reading 75%, grade A-, #3 of 257 statewide, top 1%, 777 students, 33% FRL); Fairhope High School (math 43% / reading 46%, grade F, #22 of 305 statewide, top 8%, 1,629 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 633 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $269,007 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.33%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $298,987
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16255 Tigris Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,410 (-0%)	4mo	$304,461	$216	94
16221 Tigris Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,417 (0%)	7mo	$302,961	$214	94
16313 Tigris Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,417 (0%)	7mo	$295,450	$209	91
16250 Tigris Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (+1%)	7mo	$301,037	$211	87
16207 Tigris Dr	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,504 (+6%)	9mo	$312,036	$207	82
16199 Tigris Dr	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,504 (+6%)	10mo	$307,400	$204	81
16267 Tigris Dr	0.04mi	4/2.0	1,504 (+6%)	9mo	$269,000	$179	81
16300 Tigris Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,443 (+2%)	10mo	$271,900	$188	81
16348 Tigris Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,443 (+2%)	9mo	$290,675	$201	80
16291 Tigris Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-10%)	5mo	$289,900	$226	72
16233 Tigris Dr	0.01mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-10%)	9mo	$276,900	$216	71
16817 Tigris Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,281 (-10%)	2mo	$295,424	$231	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-47,061
• Equity at exit: $44,580

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-39,400
• Equity at exit: $25,851

Cash invested: $83,716 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36532

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 633
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,690 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,485/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$36
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$565
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,661

Max offer price $298,987

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $230	-5% $126	+0% $23	+5% $-80	+10% $-184
Rent	-10% $-190	-5% $-83	+0% $23	+5% $129	+10% $235
Rate	-1.0pp $173	-0.5pp $99	base $23	+0.5pp $-55	+1.0pp $-133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,747
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16216 Tigris Dr Fairhope, AL	4.0	2.0	1417	$3,700	$2.61	15d	1	0.02mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $36 · $432/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   price $309,360
3. 2026-01-18
   price $308,860
4. 2025-11-10
   price $307,860
5. 2025-11-04
   listed $306,860 Active New Construction

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,748
• − Property taxes: −$4,485
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,582
• − Management: −$2,582
• − HOA: −$432
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$4,742
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,138
• After-tax cash flow: $1,413/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Fairhope

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #3577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• City population: 38,108
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 38,108
• Household income: $89,694
• Rent vs Own: 17.5% rent · 82.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 665.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -175.08%
• Current HPI: 299.6643
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+0.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — BCAR
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $309,360 BCAR
• 2026-01-18 Price Changed $308,860 BCAR
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $307,860 BCAR
• 2025-11-04 Listed $306,860 BCAR