Covington Plan · Houston, TX 77406

$389,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,437 sqft · SingleFamily · 222 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 13% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Covington floor plan is a thoughtfully designed two-story home with four bedrooms and three bathrooms, offering a seamless blend of comfort and style. The layout maximizes both living and entertaining spaces, with an open-concept kitchen and great room creating the perfect hub for daily gatherings. A private owner's suite provides a relaxing retreat, while additional bedrooms and a versatile loft offer flexibility for growing families or guests. With a two-car garage and ample storage, this home is designed for modern living without sacrificing convenience.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 221 days

🏗️ New construction. The $389,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $453,002.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $390k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-718 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $349k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $305k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $305k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1238 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 222 days — a 12% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $305,332 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 222 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.80%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $453,002
• List price: $389,990
• Delta: -13.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26419 Polaris Rise Ln	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,373 (-3%)	1mo	$415,000	$175	85
26822 Chandrila Vista Ct	0.02mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,330 (-4%)	2mo	$399,900	$172	84
26815 Brilliant Brook Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,504 (+3%)	0mo	$474,900	$190	77
26303 Polaris Rise Ln	0.23mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,336 (-4%)	1mo	$409,000	$175	77
10802 Aquila Star Dr	0.25mi	4/3.5	2,600 (+7%)	1mo	$479,762	$185	74
26714 Stardust Meadow Ct	0.44mi	4/3.5	2,392 (-2%)	0mo	$458,900	$192	74
26827 Stardust Meadow Ct	0.44mi	4/3.5	2,392 (-2%)	1mo	$453,900	$190	73
10819 Aquila Star Dr	0.28mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,600 (+7%)	2mo	$449,896	$173	69
26827 Brilliant Brook Dr	0.41mi	4/3.5	2,694 (+10%)	2mo	$519,900	$193	60
10622 Starfire Yellow Dr	0.36mi	4/3.5	2,796 (+15%)	1mo	$524,900	$188	56
10646 Starfire Yellow Dr	0.39mi	4/3.5	2,797 (+15%)	0mo	$499,900	$179	55
11023 Anilu Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,578 (+6%)	1mo	$349,000	$135	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-128,067
• Equity at exit: $67,544

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.61×
• Total profit: $-204,835
• Equity at exit: $39,167

Cash invested: $126,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77406

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1238
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,053 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,376
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$566 /mo · $6,795/yr
• Insurance: −$189
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$641
• Net cashflow: $-718

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,963

Max offer price $349,038

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-405	-5% $-562	+0% $-718	+5% $-875	+10% $-1,032
Rent	-10% $-960	-5% $-839	+0% $-718	+5% $-598	+10% $-477
Rate	-1.0pp $-490	-0.5pp $-603	base $-718	+0.5pp $-836	+1.0pp $-955

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,250
• Closing costs: $13,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26407 Polaris Rise Ln Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	3260	$3,750	$1.15	44d	1	0.19mi
10503 Shinning Dawn Way Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	2523	$3,399	$1.35	44d	1	0.39mi
25810 Palmdale Estate Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	2008	$2,350	$1.17	44d	1	0.89mi
26122 Serenity Oaks Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	3.0	2438	$2,386	$0.98	6d	1	0.97mi
6411 Tea Tree Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2168	$6,900	$3.18	44d	1	1.39mi
26439 Richwood Oaks Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1756	$2,050	$1.17	44d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $389,990 Active 222 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,990 Active 219 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,990 Active 218 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,990 Active 217 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,990 Active 216 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,990 Active 214 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $389,990 Active 210 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $389,990 Active 209 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $389,990 Active 208 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $389,990 Active 205 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $389,990 Active 204 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $389,990 Active 203 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $389,990 Active 202 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $389,990 Active 201 DOM
15. 2026-02-18
    price $389,990 567-char remark

    Show marketing remark (567 chars)

    The Covington floor plan is a thoughtfully designed two-story home with four bedrooms and three bathrooms, offering a seamless blend of comfort and style. The layout maximizes both living and entertaining spaces, with an open-concept kitchen and great room creating the perfect hub for daily gatherings. A private owner's suite provides a relaxing retreat, while additional bedrooms and a versatile loft offer flexibility for growing families or guests. With a two-car garage and ample storage, this home is designed for modern living without sacrificing convenience.

16. 2025-11-11
    listed $449,990 Active 567-char remark

    Show marketing remark (567 chars)

    The Covington floor plan is a thoughtfully designed two-story home with four bedrooms and three bathrooms, offering a seamless blend of comfort and style. The layout maximizes both living and entertaining spaces, with an open-concept kitchen and great room creating the perfect hub for daily gatherings. A private owner's suite provides a relaxing retreat, while additional bedrooms and a versatile loft offer flexibility for growing families or guests. With a two-car garage and ample storage, this home is designed for modern living without sacrificing convenience.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,375
• − Property taxes: −$6,795
• − Insurance: −$2,265
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,931
• − Management: −$2,931
• − Depreciation: −$13,178
• Taxable loss: −$16,836
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,041
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,581/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The Covington Plan is a well-maintained two-story home with good curb appeal and interior condition, ready for minor cosmetic updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Interior touch-ups — Enhances interior aesthetics and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,918
• Household income: $141,869
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 575.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 14% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.18%
• Current HPI: 222.9525
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $389,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-11 Listed $449,990 Zillow