Covington Plan · Richmond, TX 77406

$389,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,437 sqft · SingleFamily · 83 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Covington floor plan is a thoughtfully designed two-story home with four bedrooms and three bathrooms, offering a seamless blend of comfort and style. The layout maximizes both living and entertaining spaces, with an open-concept kitchen and great room creating the perfect hub for daily gatherings. A private owner's suite provides a relaxing retreat, while additional bedrooms and a versatile loft offer flexibility for growing families or guests. With a two-car garage and ample storage, this home is designed for modern living without sacrificing convenience.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 82 days

🏗️ New construction. The $389,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $443,265.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $390k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-981 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (22.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (32.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (32.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 2.6% in Richmond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#363 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Joe Hubenak El (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 1,214 students, 37% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1947 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($367k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,599 (32.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.48%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $443,265
• List price: $389,990
• Delta: -12.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26739 Azalea Sky Dr	0.29mi	4/3.5	2,463 (+1%)	0mo	$424,958	$173	82
10631 Starfire Yellow Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,545 (+4%)	0mo	$536,900	$211	74
10419 Melida Dawn Way	0.46mi	4/3.5	2,392 (-2%)	2mo	$489,900	$205	72
26002 Horizon Star Ln	0.51mi	4/3.5	2,415 (-1%)	1mo	$385,000	$159	72
10303 Melida Dawn Way	0.51mi	4/3.5	2,392 (-2%)	1mo	$449,900	$188	70
26826 Brilliant Brook Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,586 (+6%)	0mo	$424,990	$164	69
26811 Brilliant Brook Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,637 (+8%)	0mo	$464,990	$176	69
26810 Stardust Meadow Ct	0.40mi	4/3.5	2,600 (+7%)	3mo	$474,620	$183	66
27 E Kitty Hawk St	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,576 (+6%)	0mo	$899,000	$349	64
10627 Melida Dawn Way	0.45mi	4/3.5	2,796 (+15%)	0mo	$534,900	$191	52
26006 Golden Dawn Trl	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,082 (-15%)	2mo	$375,000	$180	51
26207 Christen Canyon Ln	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,118 (-13%)	2mo	$350,000	$165	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-141,985
• Equity at exit: $66,092

10-year hold

• IRR: -74.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.88×
• Total profit: $-233,774
• Equity at exit: $38,325

Cash invested: $124,114 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 131 active · 82 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.9 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $449,900 ($179/sqft)
• Median days on market: 113 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77406

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1947
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,636 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,325
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$554 /mo · $6,649/yr
• Insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-981

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,878

Max offer price $301,331

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-675	-5% $-828	+0% $-981	+5% $-1,134	+10% $-1,287
Rent	-10% $-1,189	-5% $-1,085	+0% $-981	+5% $-877	+10% $-773
Rate	-1.0pp $-758	-0.5pp $-868	base $-981	+0.5pp $-1,096	+1.0pp $-1,213

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,816
• Closing costs: $13,298
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26831 Chandrila Vista Ct Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1740	$2,300	$1.32	75d	1	0.01mi
26407 Polaris Rise Ln Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	3260	$3,750	$1.15	184d	1	0.19mi
26407 Polaris Rise Ln Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	3260	$3,750	$1.15	1d	1	0.19mi
10503 Shinning Dawn Way Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	2523	$3,399	$1.35	184d	1	0.39mi
10823 Capella Creek Way Richmond, TX	4.0	3.0	2388	$2,600	$1.09	73d	1	0.44mi
11022 Avery Oaks Ln Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	3295	$2,399	$0.73	10d	1	0.46mi
26138 Flinton Dr Richmond, TX	3.0	2.5	2365	$2,430	$1.03	3d	1	0.47mi
26339 Riley Glen Dr Unit Dr Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1900	$1,900	$1.00	16d	1	0.54mi
11419 Elizabeth Brook Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.5	2450	$2,150	$0.88	2d	1	0.73mi
11319 Sandermeyer Dr Richmond, TX	5.0	4.0	2895	$2,146	$0.74	69d	1	0.81mi
10910 Brighton Gardens Dr Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	2385	$2,595	$1.09	86d	1	0.85mi
25922 Bronze Oak Ct Richmond, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$1,500	$0.72	26d	1	0.87mi
25922 Bronze Oak Ct Richmond, TX	4.0	3.0	2073	$1,500	$0.72	10d	1	0.87mi
25810 Palmdale Estate Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	2008	$2,350	$1.17	10d	1	0.89mi
9743 Stratton Ridge Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	2699	$2,256	$0.84	43d	1	0.91mi
26122 Serenity Oaks Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	3.0	2438	$2,236	$0.92	116d	1	0.97mi
9547 Summer River Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	1930	$2,300	$1.19	91d	1	1.16mi
6442 Applewood Forest Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1756	$1,650	$0.94	90d	1	1.18mi
6442 Applewood Forest Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1756	$1,650	$0.94	10d	1	1.18mi
9419 Sparrow Creek Ct Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2654	$2,950	$1.11	76d	1	1.37mi
6411 Tea Tree Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2168	$6,325	$2.92	10d	1	1.39mi
6411 Tea Tree Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2168	$6,900	$3.18	184d	1	1.39mi
25710 Owl Landing Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.5	2638	$2,750	$1.04	24d	1	1.39mi
26439 Richwood Oaks Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1756	$2,050	$1.17	184d	1	1.40mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $389,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home — Covington planNew construction
• Exterior features: Living area of 2,437

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Covington)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $389,990 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $389,990 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $389,990 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $389,990 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $389,990 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $389,990 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $389,990 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $389,990 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $389,990 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $389,990 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $389,990 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $389,990 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $389,990 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $389,990 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $389,990 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $389,990 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $389,990 Active 66 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $389,990 Active 65 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $389,990 Active 64 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $389,990 Active 63 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $389,990 Active 62 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $389,990 Active 61 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $389,990 Active 60 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $389,990 Active 59 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $389,990 Active 58 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $389,990 Active 57 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $389,990 Active 56 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $389,990 Active 55 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $389,990 Active 54 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $389,990 Active 53 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $389,990 Active 52 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $389,990 Active 51 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $389,990 Active 50 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $389,990 Active 49 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $389,990 Active 48 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $389,990 Active 47 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $389,990 Active 46 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $389,990 Active 45 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $389,990 Active 44 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $389,990 Active 43 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $389,990 Active 42 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $389,990 Active 41 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $389,990 Active 40 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $389,990 Active 39 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $389,990 Active 38 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $389,990 Active 37 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $389,990 Active 36 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $389,990 Active 35 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $389,990 Active 34 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $389,990 Active 32 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,830
• − Property taxes: −$6,649
• − Insurance: −$2,216
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,531
• − Management: −$2,531
• − Depreciation: −$12,895
• Taxable loss: −$20,019
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,805
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,966/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $12,185–$36,555 screening

The Covington Plan is a well-maintained two-story home with good curb appeal and interior condition, ready for minor cosmetic updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 62/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Joe Hubenak El B- TX #455/4,322 Nat'l #8,048/41,679 Middle Briscoe J H B TX #166/1,662 Nat'l #1,836/14,009 High Foster H S B TX #141/1,632 Nat'l #2,354/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Richmond

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #7780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 158,237
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,918
• Household income: $141,869
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 14% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.18%
• Current HPI: 222.9525
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $389,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home — Covington planNew construction
• Exterior features: Living area of 2,437

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Covington)