16 N Hill Dr · West Seneca, NY 14224

$259,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,707 sqft · Condo public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1990 $152/sqft · 13% below area Est $298k · 13% under $263/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Hard to find Hillcrest Heights North 2+ bedroom townhouse with attached 2 car garage and full private basement. This centrally located home has additional sitting loft area overlooking two-story foyer. Loft is perfect for entertainment room and or den/office. Large primary bedroom features cathedral ceilings along with double closets and make-up dressing area. First features great room with fireplace open to dining area and a half bath. Eat-in-kitchen featuring appliances. Dining room with sliding doors to a covered canvas awning 17x14 deck with surround screens and hot tub. L-shaped finished room in basement. Updated mechanicals. Plenty of basement storage. Seller will entertain offers on Wednesday 5/20/26 at 3 pm.

Key facts

• Two-story foyer
• Dining room
• Entertainment room

Tags

• ATTACHED 2 CAR GARAGE
• FULL PRIVATE BASEMENT
• SITTING LOFT AREA
• TWO-STORY FOYER
• ENTERTAINMENT ROOM
• DINING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-328 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (22.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.7% in West Seneca — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#130 in NY, #2,089 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• West Seneca Central School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #336 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $107k; list at $260k implies a 143% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $201,952 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.41%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $298,174
• List price: $259,900
• Delta: -12.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-62,731
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-80,402
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14224

• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,355 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$455 /mo · $5,455/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$263
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,771

Max offer price $201,952

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-181	-5% $-254	+0% $-328	+5% $-402	+10% $-475
Rent	-10% $-514	-5% $-421	+0% $-328	+5% $-235	+10% $-142
Rate	-1.0pp $-197	-0.5pp $-262	base $-328	+0.5pp $-395	+1.0pp $-464

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2852 Transit Rd Buffalo, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1070	$2,409	$2.25	2d	1	0.40mi
4720 Transit Rd Depew, NY	2.0–3.0	2.0	1299	$2,249	$1.73	2d	1	0.96mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $263 · $3,156/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,900 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $259,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $279,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $279,900 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,900 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,900 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    listed $289,900 Active 725-char remark

    Show marketing remark (725 chars)

    Hard to find Hillcrest Heights North 2+ bedroom townhouse with attached 2 car garage and full private basement. This centrally located home has additional sitting loft area overlooking two-story foyer. Loft is perfect for entertainment room and or den/office. Large primary bedroom features cathedral ceilings along with double closets and make-up dressing area. First features great room with fireplace open to dining area and a half bath. Eat-in-kitchen featuring appliances. Dining room with sliding doors to a covered canvas awning 17x14 deck with surround screens and hot tub. L-shaped finished room in basement. Updated mechanicals. Plenty of basement storage. Seller will entertain offers on Wednesday 5/20/26 at 3 pm.

17. 1995-04-24
    soldstatus $107,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,455 · $455/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,455 · $455/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,265
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$5,455
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,261
• − Management: −$2,261
• − HOA: −$3,156
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$8,287
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,989
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,948/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Seneca Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630780
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $54,231
• Composite: 44.83/100
• National rank: #2735
• State rank: #336 of 590 in NY

Livability — West Seneca

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #2089

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Seneca, NY
• City population: 41,101
• Population (ZIP): 41,101

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 22% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.03%
• Current HPI: 303.7523
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+170.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $289,900 WNYREIS
• 1995-04-24 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,455 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.