318 Chesapeake Dr · St. Cloud, FL 34771

$336,360

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,730 sqft · Land

Built 2026 2,178 sqft lot $112/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Open-Concept 3BR/2.5BA Townhome with Garage & Lanai. Beautifully designed 3-bedroom townhome featuring an open floor plan, 1-car garage, and screened lanai. The kitchen boasts quartz countertops, 36" shaker cabinets, stainless steel Samsung appliances (including smart range), a pantry, and a breakfast bar. Luxury vinyl plank flooring flows through the main living areas and wet spaces, with stain-resistant carpet in bedrooms and upstairs. The spacious owner’s suite includes a walk-in closet, dual vanities, and a tiled shower. Two additional bedrooms share a full bath and hallway linen closet. Upgrades & Features: Energy-efficient construction: R-30

Key facts

• $112 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2026

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $336k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-387 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $280k (16.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 4.0% in St. Cloud — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 1378 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,456 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.93%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-78,980
• Equity at exit: $50,152

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-99,844
• Equity at exit: $29,082

Cash invested: $94,181 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34771

• Home prices YoY: -30.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 1378
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,595 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,764
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$420 /mo · $5,045/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$112
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $-387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,084

Max offer price $280,389

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,090
• Closing costs: $10,091
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
600 Talisi Loop Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1676	$2,450	$1.46	4d	1	0.15mi
399 Tanis Ave Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,375	$1.29	23d	1	0.19mi
234 Polermo Ave Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1825	$2,490	$1.36	23d	1	0.26mi
564 Preston Cove Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1551	$2,080	$1.34	23d	1	0.30mi
5580 Vigo Loop Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	2021	$2,849	$1.41	14d	1	0.31mi
588 Preston Cove Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1553	$2,250	$1.45	2d	1	0.32mi
419 Conway Ave Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1910	$2,750	$1.44	7d	1	0.35mi
5778 Waterman Path Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1946	$2,295	$1.18	23d	1	0.39mi
18 Polermo Ave Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1982	$2,400	$1.21	21d	1	0.42mi
94 Polermo Ave Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1990	$2,450	$1.23	7d	1	0.43mi
5752 Anders Way Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,500	$1.47	23d	1	0.44mi
5788 Freshwater Canyon Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1705	$2,250	$1.32	14d	1	0.46mi
764 Preston Cove Dr Unit 1 St Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,100	$1.44	23d	1	0.46mi
504 Enaya St Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1825	$3,100	$1.70	23d	1	0.48mi
5824 Bullock Pl Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1663	$2,149	$1.29	4d	1	0.56mi
5837 Beefmaster Rd Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	1663	$2,075	$1.25	23d	1	0.60mi
5741 Haystack Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1932	$2,450	$1.27	2d	1	0.62mi
551 Windy Willow Way Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	2100	$2,550	$1.21	23d	1	0.62mi
5846 Herder Rd Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1890	$2,650	$1.40	23d	1	0.63mi
5762 Cattle Ranch Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	2066	$2,400	$1.16	7d	1	0.63mi
5762 Cattle Ranch Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.0	2066	$2,400	$1.16	23d	1	0.63mi
5777 Haystack Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	2226	$2,400	$1.08	23d	1	0.67mi
358 Cadberry Pl Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1594	$2,200	$1.38	14d	1	0.71mi
5327 Timberland Ave Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,550	$1.39	23d	1	0.76mi
5265 Luke Hammock St Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2168	$2,660	$1.23	4d	1	0.86mi
1166 Silo Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	3.0	1856	$2,499	$1.35	16d	1	0.87mi
1217 Grassland Ave Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2185	$2,900	$1.33	23d	1	0.90mi
5566 Sabal Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2105	$2,700	$1.28	14d	1	1.00mi
5566 Sabal Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	2126	$2,699	$1.27	7d	1	1.00mi
5273 Luisa Ct Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	1860	$2,375	$1.28	12d	1	1.06mi
5261 Luisa Ct Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	1860	$2,350	$1.26	23d	1	1.08mi
1479 Silver Maple Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1654	$2,312	$1.40	1d	6	1.09mi
1560 Scarbrough Abby Pl Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	2004	$2,475	$1.24	20d	1	1.13mi
994 Teal Creek Dr Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	1790	$2,799	$1.56	23d	1	1.18mi
5274 Kildare Pl Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	1790	$2,700	$1.51	23d	1	1.19mi
5686 Stockade Blvd Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1496	$2,150	$1.44	7d	1	1.21mi
1029 Ladyfish Trl Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	2.5	2197	$3,100	$1.41	13d	1	1.22mi
1305 Stockwell Ave Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1704	$2,169	$1.27	4d	1	1.27mi
5172 Goldfinch Dr Saint Cloud, FL	3.0	2.5	1992	$2,600	$1.31	17d	1	1.27mi
1260 Stockwell Ave Saint Cloud, FL	4.0	3.0	1786	$2,390	$1.34	23d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $112 · $1,344/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-01
   listed $336,360
2. 2026-04-01
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,135
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,841
• − Property taxes: −$5,045
• − Insurance: −$1,682
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,491
• − Management: −$2,491
• − HOA: −$1,344
• − Depreciation: −$9,785
• Taxable loss: −$10,544
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,531
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,111/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Cloud

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Osceola County · 410,217 people
• City population: 29,247
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,257
• Household income: $97,415
• Rent vs Own: 15.0% rent · 85.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 20% Black 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 26% Cuban 2% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 33% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.44%
• Current HPI: 290.3095
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Listed $336,360 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid