5830 Robin Hill Dr #45 · North Lakeport, CA 95453

$89,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Land · 27 Days on market

Built 1983

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice mobile home in Senior Park! 2Bd/2Ba with large master bathroom. Laminate floors. Covered patio to enjoy the awesome lake view!

Key facts

• Community pool
• Lake view
• Storage shed

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• WHEELCHAIR ACCESSIBLE RAMP
• OVERSIZED LAUNDRY ROOM
• COMMUNITY POOL
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: Sterling Shores Estates; Manager approval required for residency; Property listed as a double-wide mobile home; mobile home remains
• Financial info: Land lease paid monthly (contact listing for amount and terms); Rent includes water and sewer
• HOA & community: Senior community; Onsite property management; Community dock and pier; Clubhouse; Recreational/multipurpose room; Pet rules (contact management); Community features include a lake; Land lease (monthly)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking / carport; Concrete driveway; Two parking spaces; Two carport spaces
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector
• Utilities: Public water (District/Public); Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Entry at front door; One-level living; Mobile home model KAUFMAN (24' x 64'); Turnkey condition; Has a view
• Construction: Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation with pier jacks
• Exterior features: Covered concrete patio; In-ground community pool; Wood fencing; Storage building / shed (1)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Propane range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; All bedrooms on one level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bath; One 3/4 bath; Soaking tub; Walk-in shower
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling; Central furnace; Propane heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Open floor plan; Sliding glass door(s); Screens; Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside in a dedicated room; 220V in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $797 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 2.7% in North Lakeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#808 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Lakeport Unified (town): math 13% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #451 of 517 in CA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $89k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→9/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,665 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
4. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
5. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.38%
• DSCR: 2.71
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $36,327
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.89×
• Total profit: $96,928
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95453

• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,696 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $467/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $797

Break-even live

Break-even rent $687

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $847	-5% $822	+0% $797	+5% $772	+10% $747
Rent	-10% $663	-5% $730	+0% $797	+5% $864	+10% $931
Rate	-1.0pp $842	-0.5pp $820	base $797	+0.5pp $774	+1.0pp $751

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    status $89,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active Under Contract 10 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active Under Contract 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active Under Contract 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,000 Active Under Contract 7 DOM
18. 2026-05-23
    listed $89,000 Active
19. 2016-01-22
    soldstatus $42,000 Closed Sale 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    Nice mobile home in Senior Park! 2Bd/2Ba with large master bathroom. Laminate floors. Covered patio to enjoy the awesome lake view!

20. 2015-12-22
    historical Active Under Contract 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    Nice mobile home in Senior Park! 2Bd/2Ba with large master bathroom. Laminate floors. Covered patio to enjoy the awesome lake view!

21. 2015-11-24
    status Active 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    Nice mobile home in Senior Park! 2Bd/2Ba with large master bathroom. Laminate floors. Covered patio to enjoy the awesome lake view!

22. 2015-11-18
    historical Active Under Contract 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    Nice mobile home in Senior Park! 2Bd/2Ba with large master bathroom. Laminate floors. Covered patio to enjoy the awesome lake view!

23. 2015-10-30
    price $42,000 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    Nice mobile home in Senior Park! 2Bd/2Ba with large master bathroom. Laminate floors. Covered patio to enjoy the awesome lake view!

24. 2015-09-02
    listed $44,000 Active 131-char remark

    Show marketing remark (131 chars)

    Nice mobile home in Senior Park! 2Bd/2Ba with large master bathroom. Laminate floors. Covered patio to enjoy the awesome lake view!

25. 2012-12-31
    soldstatus $18,500 Closed 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    1983 Manufactured home in one of the nicest parks in Lakeport. This home is 2 bedroom 2 bath with nice patio, large living room, wet bar, large laundry room, and large master bath. Park has pool, boat launch, club house, and RV/Boat Parking.

26. 2012-12-18
    status Pending 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    1983 Manufactured home in one of the nicest parks in Lakeport. This home is 2 bedroom 2 bath with nice patio, large living room, wet bar, large laundry room, and large master bath. Park has pool, boat launch, club house, and RV/Boat Parking.

27. 2012-10-15
    price $24,000 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    1983 Manufactured home in one of the nicest parks in Lakeport. This home is 2 bedroom 2 bath with nice patio, large living room, wet bar, large laundry room, and large master bath. Park has pool, boat launch, club house, and RV/Boat Parking.

28. 2012-07-30
    price $27,500 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    1983 Manufactured home in one of the nicest parks in Lakeport. This home is 2 bedroom 2 bath with nice patio, large living room, wet bar, large laundry room, and large master bath. Park has pool, boat launch, club house, and RV/Boat Parking.

29. 2012-07-03
    listed $35,000 Active 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    1983 Manufactured home in one of the nicest parks in Lakeport. This home is 2 bedroom 2 bath with nice patio, large living room, wet bar, large laundry room, and large master bath. Park has pool, boat launch, club house, and RV/Boat Parking.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $467 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $676 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: +$210/yr (+$17/mo · 45.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥101°F today · 9 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,351
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$467
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,628
• − Management: −$1,628
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $8,609
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,066
• After-tax cash flow: $7,499/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeport Unified
• NCES district ID: 0620670
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,332
• Composite: 18.55/100
• National rank: #8912
• State rank: #451 of 517 in CA

Livability — North Lakeport

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #808
• US rank: #22865

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Lakeport, CA
• County: Lake County · 24,333 people
• Metro: Clearlake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 11,741
• Household income: $71,419
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 250.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Native American 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.01%
• Current HPI: 155.5391
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Clearlake, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+154.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $89,000 CRMLS
• 2016-01-22 Sold (MLS) $42,000 CRMLS
• 2015-12-22 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2015-11-24 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2015-11-18 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2015-10-30 Price Changed $42,000 CRMLS
• 2015-09-02 Listed $44,000 CRMLS
• 2012-12-31 Sold (MLS) $18,500 CRMLS
• 2012-12-18 Pending — CRMLS
• 2012-10-15 Price Changed $24,000 CRMLS
• 2012-07-30 Price Changed $27,500 CRMLS
• 2012-07-03 Listed $35,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+10.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $467 · +51.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.