5710 Joyce St · Pine Castle, FL 32839

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1988 7,499 sqft lot Est $273k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Just around the corner from the public Bywater Boat Ramp on Lake Jessamine, this property is ready for its next chapter. The main home offers a 2-bedroom, 2-bath layout, while the converted garage adds a separate entrance with 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, a small living area, and kitchen space, creating flexible potential for extended living, guests, a studio, or rental-style setup, subject to buyer verification. The home is a full renovation project, but the location and layout make it an exciting opportunity for someone with vision. Set in an established Orlando neighborhood just minutes from Orange Avenue, Mercato’s Bakery, Downtown Orlando, major toll roads, and Orlando International Ai

Key facts

• Converted garage
• 7,499 sq ft lot
• Built 1988

Tags

• LAKE JESSAMINE ACCESS
• CONVERTED GARAGE
• FULL RENOVATION PROJECT
• CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN ORLANDO
• CLOSE TO MAJOR TOLL ROADS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned R-1A; Living area reported as 1,400 square feet; Total building area 1,400 square feet; Lot size about 0.17 acres (≈697 m²); Unfurnished; Directions: Head west on Orange Ave, turn right onto Oak Ridge, then right onto Joyce
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a fixer (property condition: fixer)
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; Lot approximately 0.17 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Interior in-law suite with private entry
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-888/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#79 in FL, #1,309 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment D-.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 222 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $200k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,305 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.59%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $273,448
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6125 Calypso Dr	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,177 (+11%)	24mo	$303,000	$257	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-42,216
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-62,567
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32839

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 222
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,773 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$343 /mo · $4,117/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,867

Max offer price $186,833

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5405 Brereton Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,880	$1.57	22d	1	0.49mi
5401 Hansel Ave Unit 2 Belle Isle, FL	3.0	2.0	1385	$2,200	$1.59	24d	1	0.57mi
6308 Calypso Dr Orlando, FL	3.0	1.0	1150	$1,695	$1.47	24d	1	0.58mi
5343 Hansel Ave Unit F4 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1317	$2,195	$1.67	11d	1	0.63mi
415 W Lancaster Rd Unit 2 Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,400	$2.00	24d	1	0.70mi
308 W Lancaster Rd Orlando, FL	2.0	1.0	969	$1,650	$1.70	24d	1	0.74mi
789 W Lancaster Rd Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	920	$1,624	$1.77	24d	1	0.95mi
660 Flagler Dr Orlando, FL	4.0	1.5	1326	$2,111	$1.59	8d	1	1.01mi
921 W Oak Ridge Rd Unit 921C Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	895	$1,425	$1.59	24d	1	1.05mi
925 W Oak Ridge Rd Unit A Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	944	$1,295	$1.37	1d	1	1.05mi
925 W Oak Ridge Rd Unit 925C Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	895	$1,400	$1.56	24d	1	1.05mi
925 W Oak Ridge Rd Unit C Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	895	$1,300	$1.45	24d	1	1.05mi
915 W Oak Ridge Rd Unit B Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	944	$1,450	$1.54	24d	1	1.05mi
5672 Tomoka Dr Unit m56724 Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	1157	$1,550	$1.34	8d	1	1.22mi
1210 Southstation Pl #209 Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1142	$2,150	$1.88	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $199,900 Pending 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,900 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,900 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-05-26
    listed $199,900 Active
14. 2026-04-13
    listed $5,000 Active
15. 2025-09-22
    status Pending
16. 2025-09-22
    historical
17. 2025-09-13
    listed $279,000 Active
18. 2015-03-19
    historical
19. 2014-09-16
    listed $125,000 Active
20. 2005-04-01
    soldstatus $90,000
21. 1991-04-01
    soldstatus $60,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,117 · $343/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,117 · $343/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$4,117
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,702
• − Management: −$1,702
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$4,257
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,022
• After-tax cash flow: $134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pine Castle

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #1309

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Castle, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 53,242
• Household income: $47,313
• Rent vs Own: 75.1% rent · 24.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 5337.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 35% Two or more races 17% White 16% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 14% Cuban 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Estonian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 33% French/Haitian/Cajun 9% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.65%
• Current HPI: 357.4828
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.50%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+232.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Listed $5,000 NFMLS
• 2025-09-22 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-22 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-13 Listed $279,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-19 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-16 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 1991-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $60,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,117 · +25.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.