3006 Nogal St · Hidalgo, TX 78557

$177,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,181 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2001 6,242 sqft lot Est $193k · 8% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Perfect starter home, ready to move in. Home has a brand new roof and AC has been replaced. Featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with ample backyard space. Valley view school district, and close to the international bridge.

Key facts

• 6,242 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2001

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Spa on property (heated)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Community features include sidewalks and other community amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 garage space); Covered parking (2 spaces); Carport (1 space); Total of 2 parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; City sewer; Paved road access
• Home design: Brick construction; Composition shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick exterior; Slab foundation; Composition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Chain link and wood fencing; Covered patio and patio slab; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater; No conveying appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite countertops; Ceiling fans; Walk-in closets; Mini blinds and wood/faux blinds
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area located in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $177k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $246 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $177k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.2% in Hidalgo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#488 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Valley View ISD (suburban): math 24% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #631 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wilbur E Lucas El (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 468 students, 94% FRL); Valley View J H (math 23% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 483 students, 95% FRL); Valley View H S (math 12% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 1,170 students, 96% FRL).
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,690 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.96%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $192,503
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3009 Laurel St	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,250 (+6%)	6mo	$234,000	$187	82
2616 Palo Blanco St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,227 (+4%)	19mo	$205,000	$167	66
2900 E Palo Blanco St	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,348 (+14%)	6mo	$232,900	$173	62
707 Golfo St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,178 (-0%)	19mo	$140,000	$119	53
2908 Monterrey St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,263 (+7%)	11mo	$155,000	$123	51
1502 Las Palmas Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,277 (+8%)	11mo	$237,000	$186	47
2406 Victoria St	0.60mi	3/1.5	1,275 (+8%)	12mo	$208,000	$163	47
2305 Monterrey St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,231 (+4%)	19mo	$172,000	$140	45
2500 Victoria St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,099 (-7%)	20mo	$175,000	$159	45
2513 Q St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,347 (+14%)	15mo	$215,000	$160	44
2209 N 26th St	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,355 (+15%)	18mo	$250,000	$185	33
309 Sabinas St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+14%)	18mo	$175,000	$130	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $112,162
• Equity at exit: $159,456

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.42×
• Total profit: $318,104
• Equity at exit: $343,872

Cash invested: $49,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78557

• Home prices YoY: 17.9%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$928
• Tax from tax record: −$292 /mo · $3,506/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $246

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,638

Max offer price $177,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,250
• Closing costs: $5,310
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2304 E Tamarindo Ave Hidalgo, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,950	$1.35	23d	1	0.71mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $177,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $177,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $177,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $177,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $177,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $177,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $177,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $177,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $177,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $177,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $184,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $184,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    listed $184,000 Active
18. 2025-08-13
    soldstatus
19. 2025-07-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,506 · $292/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,506 · $292/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 96% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,915
• − Property taxes: −$3,506
• − Insurance: −$885
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,872
• − Management: −$1,872
• − Depreciation: −$5,149
• Taxable income: $201
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$48
• After-tax cash flow: $2,908/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley View ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843800
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -42.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,158
• Composite: 25.37/100
• National rank: #7473
• State rank: #631 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hidalgo

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #488
• US rank: #9681

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hidalgo, TX
• City population: 14,250
• Population (ZIP): 14,250

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 99% Two or more races 47%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 93%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada
• Languages at home: 6% English-only · Spanish 94%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.26%
• Current HPI: 225.701
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $184,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-08-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-07-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,506 · -3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.