10116 Deal Island Rd · Deal Island, MD 21821

$209,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,096 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1953 0.30 ac lot $191/sqft · 26% above area Est $165k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rancher close to the marina. Expandable 2nd floor! Great for 2nd home or 1st time buyer. Vinyl siding, insulated windows, central A/C. Spend your summers crabbing or fishing in the bay. Needs a little TLC.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Built 1953
• Listed 16 days

Tags

• SOLID HARDWOOD FLOORS
• LARGE UNFINISHED ATTIC SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Private water; On-site septic (septic exists)
• Home design: Detached structure; Built with stick built construction and vinyl siding
• Construction: Architectural shingle roof; Block foundation; Building not winterized; Year built (source: assessor)
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Other structures above and below grade; Ground rent paid annually

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level; 1 full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s); Electric heating fuel; Electric hot water; Electric cooling fuel (other cooling type)
• Interior features: Drywall walls and ceilings; Carpet and wood flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($983/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#445 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Somerset County Public Schools (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #22 of 24 in MD (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Somerset 6/7 Intermediate School (math 8% / reading 26%, grade F, #170 of 225 statewide, top 77%, 396 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 49 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Somerset County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $209k implies a 146% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,824 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.04%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $165,426
• List price: $209,000
• Delta: 36.01%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23281 Hastings	0.72mi	2/1.0	1,023 (-7%)	10mo	$227,000	$222	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $118,999
• Equity at exit: $188,284

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.92×
• Total profit: $346,232
• Equity at exit: $406,041

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21821

• Home prices YoY: 19.4%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,778 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $880/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,674

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $200	-5% $141	+0% $82	+5% $23	+10% $-36
Rent	-10% $-59	-5% $12	+0% $82	+5% $152	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $187	-0.5pp $135	base $82	+0.5pp $28	+1.0pp $-27

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $209,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $209,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $209,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $209,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on marketlisting id $209,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-02-17
    listed $225,000 Active 744-char remark
13. 2024-03-07
    soldstatus $85,000
14. 2008-10-24
    soldstatus $52,000 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Rancher close to the marina. Expandable 2nd floor! Great for 2nd home or 1st time buyer. Vinyl siding, insulated windows, central A/C. Spend your summers crabbing or fishing in the bay. Needs a little TLC.

15. 2008-09-26
    historical 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Rancher close to the marina. Expandable 2nd floor! Great for 2nd home or 1st time buyer. Vinyl siding, insulated windows, central A/C. Spend your summers crabbing or fishing in the bay. Needs a little TLC.

16. 2008-02-25
    listed $59,900 205-char remark

    Show marketing remark (205 chars)

    Rancher close to the marina. Expandable 2nd floor! Great for 2nd home or 1st time buyer. Vinyl siding, insulated windows, central A/C. Spend your summers crabbing or fishing in the bay. Needs a little TLC.

17. 2004-05-20
    soldstatus $60,500
18. 2004-05-20
    soldstatus $60,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $880 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,579 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: +$699/yr (+$58/mo · 79.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,339
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$880
• − Insurance: −$1,842
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,707
• − Management: −$1,707
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$2,585
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$620
• After-tax cash flow: $1,604/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Somerset County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400570
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $38,810
• Composite: 14.73/100
• National rank: #9396
• State rank: #22 of 24 in MD

Livability — Deal Island

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #445
• US rank: #25171

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Deal Island, MD
• Population (ZIP): 736

Population outlook (Somerset County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,474 people
• By 2030: 23,547 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 21,498 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 20,427 · -16.5%
• By 2075: 16,594 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 12,132 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 3% Polish 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Somerset

• 2024 margin: R (+17.4) · D 40.2% · R 57.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.8pp toward R · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: -17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+17.9 2012: R+2.5 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 48.66%
• Current HPI: 299.89
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+245.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $209,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-27 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2008-10-24 Sold (MLS) $52,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-09-26 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-02-25 Listed $59,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $60,500 Public Records
• 2004-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $60,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $880 · +13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.