25521 N Lincoln Ave #22 · Valle Vista, CA 92544

$89,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured · 511 Days on market

Built 2023 Excellent condition $134/sqft · 71% above area ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a beautiful new home that features gorgeous white counter tops and cabinets with brand new appliances. This home offers a spacious open floor plan. You have your own laundry room with great storage. This lovely home has so many wonderful park features and community center as well as a dog park. It is located in the extremely desired Park of Pueblo Sereno, a 55+ community. This is a leased park- space rent is $540/month.

Key facts

• Great storage
• White counter tops
• Brand new appliances

Tags

• WHITE COUNTER TOPS
• BRAND NEW APPLIANCES
• SPACIOUS OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• GREAT STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $867 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.9% vs local median 4.3% in Valle Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#739 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 323 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.9% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 511 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 511 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.31%
• DSCR: 2.84
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $52,501
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: 71.23%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
44603 Buntin	0.21mi	2/1.0	640 (-5%)	3mo	$160,000	$250	80
25521 Lincoln Ave N #93	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	624 (-7%)	8mo	$32,500	$52	76
44577 Miller Way	0.14mi	2/1.0	720 (+7%)	18mo	$229,000	$318	67
45055 E Florida Ave #109	0.68mi	2/2.0	660 (-2%)	2mo	$29,000	$44	60
45055 E Florida Ave #117	0.68mi	1/1.0 (-1)	700 (+4%)	2mo	$27,700	$40	54
44560 Palm Ave	0.14mi	1/1.0 (-1)	588 (-12%)	18mo	$110,000	$187	53
45055 Highway 74 #87	0.71mi	1/1.0 (-1)	672 (0%)	16mo	$12,000	$18	49
44725 State Highway 74 #9	0.45mi	1/1.0 (-1)	720 (+7%)	22mo	$15,000	$21	44
45055 State Highway 74 #63	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	700 (+4%)	21mo	$26,000	$37	37
45055 Highway 74 #104	0.71mi	1/1.0 (-1)	625 (-7%)	16mo	$28,000	$45	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $44,323
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.98×
• Total profit: $125,433
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92544

• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 323
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,883 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $867

Break-even live

Break-even rent $786

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $929	-5% $898	+0% $867	+5% $836	+10% $804
Rent	-10% $718	-5% $792	+0% $867	+5% $941	+10% $1,015
Rate	-1.0pp $912	-0.5pp $889	base $867	+0.5pp $843	+1.0pp $820

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
44075 B St Hemet, CA	3.0	1.0	680	$1,595	$2.35	21d	1	0.34mi
45371 Cardiff St Hemet, CA	2.0	1.0	624	$1,950	$3.12	44d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 511 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 510 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 509 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 508 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 506 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 502 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 501 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,900 Active 500 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $89,900 Active 497 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 496 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 495 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 603-char remark
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 494 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 493 DOM
15. 2025-08-12
    price $89,900 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    This is a beautiful new home that features gorgeous white counter tops and cabinets with brand new appliances. This home offers a spacious open floor plan. You have your own laundry room with great storage. This lovely home has so many wonderful park features and community center as well as a dog park. It is located in the extremely desired Park of Pueblo Sereno, a 55+ community. This is a leased park- space rent is $540/month.

16. 2025-04-02
    price $94,900 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    This is a beautiful new home that features gorgeous white counter tops and cabinets with brand new appliances. This home offers a spacious open floor plan. You have your own laundry room with great storage. This lovely home has so many wonderful park features and community center as well as a dog park. It is located in the extremely desired Park of Pueblo Sereno, a 55+ community. This is a leased park- space rent is $540/month.

17. 2025-01-23
    listed $98,900 Active 432-char remark

    Show marketing remark (432 chars)

    This is a beautiful new home that features gorgeous white counter tops and cabinets with brand new appliances. This home offers a spacious open floor plan. You have your own laundry room with great storage. This lovely home has so many wonderful park features and community center as well as a dog park. It is located in the extremely desired Park of Pueblo Sereno, a 55+ community. This is a leased park- space rent is $540/month.

18. 2025-01-03
    historical
19. 2024-12-10
    price $98,900
20. 2024-10-04
    price $114,900
21. 2024-05-01
    historical
22. 2024-05-01
    listed $118,900 Active
23. 2023-12-04
    listed $118,900 Active
24. 2023-12-02
    historical
25. 2023-09-19
    price $118,900
26. 2023-06-21
    price $124,000
27. 2023-05-24
    price $134,900
28. 2023-05-15
    listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,808
• − Management: −$1,808
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $9,536
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,289
• After-tax cash flow: $8,111/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This beautiful, brand-new manufactured home in the Pueblo Sereno 55+ community is move-in ready with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious open floor plan, a laundry room, and community amenities, making it an excellent investment.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemet Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616920
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,962
• Composite: 25.16/100
• National rank: #7517
• State rank: #360 of 517 in CA

Livability — Valle Vista

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #739
• US rank: #21678

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living D- Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valle Vista, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 51,751
• Household income: $73,596
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1518.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 40% Two or more races 18% Black 5% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -219.06%
• Current HPI: 391.972
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.90%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-35.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $89,900 SDMLS
• 2025-04-02 Price Changed $94,900 SDMLS
• 2025-01-23 Listed $98,900 SDMLS
• 2025-01-03 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2024-12-10 Price Changed $98,900 SDMLS
• 2024-10-04 Price Changed $114,900 SDMLS
• 2024-05-01 Listed $118,900 SDMLS
• 2024-05-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2023-12-04 Listed $118,900 SDMLS
• 2023-12-02 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2023-09-19 Price Changed $118,900 SDMLS
• 2023-06-21 Price Changed $124,000 SDMLS
• 2023-05-24 Price Changed $134,900 SDMLS
• 2023-05-15 Listed $139,900 SDMLS