120 Shepard St · Buffalo, NY 14212

$129,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,312 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1900 3,300 sqft lot $99/sqft · 12% below area Est $148k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 120 Shepard St — a charming and well-maintained home offering comfort, convenience, and great potential. This property features a spacious layout with [X bedrooms] and [X bathrooms], perfect for both owner-occupants and investors alike. Enjoy a bright and inviting living area, complemented by ample natural light and functional living space. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinet storage and flows nicely into the dining area, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Additional highlights include [updated mechanicals / hardwood floors / large backyard / off-street parking — customize as needed]. The property sits on a generous lot with room to relax, garden, or expand. Conveniently located near local shops, schools, parks, and major roadways, this home offers easy access to everything you need while maintaining a quiet neighborhood feel. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a versatile property in a desirable location! THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL SIDE LOT, THAT LIST SEPARETLY CAN INCLUDE IN THIS SALE. PROPERTY'S CONDITION " AS IS"

Key facts

• Ample natural light
• Generous lot
• Large backyard

Tags

• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• AMPLE NATURAL LIGHT
• PLENTY OF CABINET STORAGE
• LARGE BACKYARD
• OFF-STREET PARKING
• GENEROUS LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $122k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $130k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $122,106 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.37%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,038
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -12.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38 N Central Ave Unit W	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,386 (+6%)	10mo	$110,000	$79	67
114 Wex Ave	0.51mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,336 (+2%)	5mo	$95,000	$71	64
206 May St	0.42mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,255 (-4%)	8mo	$159,900	$127	62
7 Krupp Ave	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,320 (+1%)	1mo	$50,000	$38	61
160 Brinkman Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,253 (-4%)	12mo	$145,000	$116	58
391 Greene St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,144 (-13%)	2mo	$200,000	$175	55
402 Benzinger St	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,269 (-3%)	9mo	$125,500	$99	55
307 Benzinger St	0.71mi	3/3.0	1,363 (+4%)	2mo	$247,000	$181	51
75 Wood Ave	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,228 (-6%)	12mo	$105,000	$86	49
107 Stanley St	0.65mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,401 (+7%)	7mo	$190,000	$136	47
74 Vanderbilt St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,136 (-13%)	3mo	$105,000	$92	42
105 Regent St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,138 (-13%)	6mo	$110,000	$97	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $81,138
• Equity at exit: $117,024

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 7.35×
• Total profit: $230,822
• Equity at exit: $252,367

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14212

• Home prices YoY: 20.4%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,342 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $253	-5% $208	+0% $163	+5% $118	+10% $73
Rent	-10% $57	-5% $110	+0% $163	+5% $216	+10% $269
Rate	-1.0pp $228	-0.5pp $196	base $163	+0.5pp $129	+1.0pp $95

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1777 Broadway Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,200	$0.92	45d	1	0.40mi
67 Moeller St Unit LOWER Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,200	$1.25	25d	1	0.76mi
67 Moeller St Unit UPPER Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,000	$1.04	4d	1	0.76mi
517 Goodyear Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1559	$1,800	$1.15	20d	1	0.77mi
979 Walden Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	3.0	1793	$2,000	$1.12	3d	1	0.95mi
1150 Bailey Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1100	$1,200	$1.09	25d	1	1.00mi
24 Euclid Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,700	$1.48	45d	1	1.07mi
85 Blake St Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1022	$1,000	$0.98	45d	1	1.15mi
65 Domedion Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1632	$1,500	$0.92	3d	1	1.30mi
1202 Walden Ave Unit 3 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,400	$0.93	18d	1	1.35mi
408 Winslow Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,050	$1.05	15d	1	1.43mi
216 Newburgh Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1690	$1,150	$0.68	25d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,900 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    price $129,900 1090-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1090 chars)

    Welcome to 120 Shepard St — a charming and well-maintained home offering comfort, convenience, and great potential. This property features a spacious layout with [X bedrooms] and [X bathrooms], perfect for both owner-occupants and investors alike. Enjoy a bright and inviting living area, complemented by ample natural light and functional living space. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinet storage and flows nicely into the dining area, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Additional highlights include [updated mechanicals / hardwood floors / large backyard / off-street parking — customize as needed]. The property sits on a generous lot with room to relax, garden, or expand. Conveniently located near local shops, schools, parks, and major roadways, this home offers easy access to everything you need while maintaining a quiet neighborhood feel. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a versatile property in a desirable location! THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL SIDE LOT, THAT LIST SEPARETLY CAN INCLUDE IN THIS SALE. PROPERTY'S CONDITION " AS IS"

17. 2026-04-16
    listed $149,000 Active 1090-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1090 chars)

    Welcome to 120 Shepard St — a charming and well-maintained home offering comfort, convenience, and great potential. This property features a spacious layout with [X bedrooms] and [X bathrooms], perfect for both owner-occupants and investors alike. Enjoy a bright and inviting living area, complemented by ample natural light and functional living space. The kitchen offers plenty of cabinet storage and flows nicely into the dining area, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Additional highlights include [updated mechanicals / hardwood floors / large backyard / off-street parking — customize as needed]. The property sits on a generous lot with room to relax, garden, or expand. Conveniently located near local shops, schools, parks, and major roadways, this home offers easy access to everything you need while maintaining a quiet neighborhood feel. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a versatile property in a desirable location! THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL SIDE LOT, THAT LIST SEPARETLY CAN INCLUDE IN THIS SALE. PROPERTY'S CONDITION " AS IS"

18. 2023-11-17
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,109
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,289
• − Management: −$1,289
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$121
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$29
• After-tax cash flow: $1,983/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• City population: 440,021
• Population (ZIP): 13,603

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 32% Black 27% Asian 25% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Philippines, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Other Indo-European 18% Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 79.80%
• Current HPI: 471.6399
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+116.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $129,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $149,000 WNYREIS
• 2023-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $118 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.