56 Guadalajara Dr #56 · Sonoma, CA 95476

$269,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 111 Days on market

Built 1973 Good condition $187/sqft · 40% above area Est $193k · 40% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your new home in the peaceful senior, 55+, community of Pueblo Serena Mobile Home Park! This well-maintained 1973 mobile home offers 2 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. Step into a large, inviting living room filled with natural light, ideal for relaxing or hosting guests. The kitchen is fully equipped with a refrigerator, microwave, dishwasher, and a stove/oven, making meal prep a breeze. Both bedrooms are generously sized, and the bathrooms offer ample space and convenience. Whether you're downsizing, starting fresh, or just looking for a great place to call home, this one has the space and layout to fit your lifestyle.

Key facts

• Built 1973
• Listed 111 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $834 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• Recommended offer: $246k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 1.4% in Sonoma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#146 in CA, #4,943 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Sonoma Valley Unified (town): math 27% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #849 of 1,400 in CA (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 263 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,609 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.25%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,028
• List price: $269,900
• Delta: 39.82%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 Merida Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$250,000	$174	85
118 Pepito Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	10mo	$235,000	$163	84
74 Guaymas Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,470 (+2%)	9mo	$267,500	$182	80
6 Chico Dr	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,500 (+4%)	21mo	$240,000	$160	68
102 Hermosillo Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	20mo	$339,000	$252	67
220 Cazares Cir	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,490 (+4%)	23mo	$300,000	$201	66
34 Mazatlan Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	20mo	$339,000	$252	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $2,019
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $41,205
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95476

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 263
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,417 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$337 /mo · $4,048/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$718
• Net cashflow: $834

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,361

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
751 Juniper Ct Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	1550	$3,900	$2.52	43d	1	0.15mi
655 W Spain St Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.5	1349	$3,525	$2.61	13d	1	0.51mi
434 Bernice Ln Unit 1546207P Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	979	$4,564	$4.66	13d	1	0.53mi
790 2nd St W Sonoma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	975	$2,660	$2.73	13d	3	0.64mi
340 Church St Sonoma, CA	3.0	2.5	1282	$3,750	$2.93	43d	1	0.67mi
663 Spring Ln Sonoma, CA	2.0	1.0	1050	$3,200	$3.05	43d	1	0.70mi
210 Tuscany Pl Sonoma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1200	$2,750	$2.29	13d	1	0.73mi
208 Todd Ave Sonoma, CA	3.0	2.5	1384	$3,800	$2.75	13d	1	0.82mi
21 Ramon St Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,250	$1.56	23d	1	0.83mi
1211 Broadway Unit 1213 Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.5	1200	$3,600	$3.00	23d	1	0.86mi
1207 Broadway Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.5	1200	$3,600	$3.00	23d	1	0.87mi
1207 Broadway Unit 1209 Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.5	1200	$3,750	$3.12	43d	1	0.87mi
19019 5th St W Sonoma, CA	3.0	2.0	1286	$3,400	$2.64	13d	1	1.03mi
336 Las Casitas Ct Sonoma, CA	2.0	1.5	1158	$2,500	$2.16	43d	1	1.26mi
126 Blue Wing Dr Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,975	$2.57	13d	2	1.27mi
126 Blue Wing Dr #11 Sonoma, CA	2.0	2.0	1156	$3,200	$2.77	13d	1	1.28mi
492 Chase St Sonoma, CA	3.0	2.0	1694	$4,750	$2.80	21d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $269,900 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 105 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,900 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,900 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $269,900 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $269,900 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,900 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,900 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,900 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 93 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $269,900 Active 92 DOM
17. 2026-02-27
    listed $269,900 Active 695-char remark

    Show marketing remark (695 chars)

    Welcome to your new home in the peaceful senior, 55+, community of Pueblo Serena Mobile Home Park! This well-maintained 1973 mobile home offers 2 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. Step into a large, inviting living room filled with natural light, ideal for relaxing or hosting guests. The kitchen is fully equipped with a refrigerator, microwave, dishwasher, and a stove/oven, making meal prep a breeze. Both bedrooms are generously sized, and the bathrooms offer ample space and convenience. Whether you're downsizing, starting fresh, or just looking for a great place to call home, this one has the space and layout to fit your lifestyle.

18. 2026-02-27
    listed $269,900 Active 695-char remark

    Show marketing remark (695 chars)

    Welcome to your new home in the peaceful senior, 55+, community of Pueblo Serena Mobile Home Park! This well-maintained 1973 mobile home offers 2 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. Step into a large, inviting living room filled with natural light, ideal for relaxing or hosting guests. The kitchen is fully equipped with a refrigerator, microwave, dishwasher, and a stove/oven, making meal prep a breeze. Both bedrooms are generously sized, and the bathrooms offer ample space and convenience. Whether you're downsizing, starting fresh, or just looking for a great place to call home, this one has the space and layout to fit your lifestyle.

19. 2025-09-02
    historical
20. 2025-04-22
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,005
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$4,048
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,280
• − Management: −$3,280
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable income: $6,076
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,458
• After-tax cash flow: $8,553/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 1973 mobile home in a peaceful senior community offers a good starting point for potential buyers or renters. With some cosmetic updates and improvements, it can be transformed into a move-in-ready property with increased value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both HVAC inspection and maintenance — A functional HVAC system is essential for comfort and energy efficiency.
• Both Kitchen updates (new countertops, appliances) — Modernizing the kitchen can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained yard can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both HVAC inspection and maintenance — A functional HVAC system is essential for comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both Kitchen updates (new countertops, appliances) — Modernizing the kitchen can significantly increase the home's value and appeal to potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sonoma Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0637200
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $63,880
• Composite: 33.88/100
• National rank: #10355
• State rank: #849 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Sonoma

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #146
• US rank: #4943

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sonoma, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 35,196
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,196
• Household income: $105,374
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1116.03%
• Current HPI: 236.6408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Listed $269,900 MLSListings
• 2026-02-27 Listed $269,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-09-02 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-04-22 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR