10042 Collingwood Ave · Dade City, FL 33525

$195,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured public records · 44 Days on market

Built 2020 4,500 sqft lot $245/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Newer 2-bedroom, 2-bath Jacobsen Homes double-wide manufactured home located in a desirable 55+ gated community in Dade City. Thoughtfully constructed with 2x6 exterior walls for enhanced durability and energy efficiency, this 2020 home offers a bright, modern interior with an open layout, luxury vinyl throughout, and an elegant tray ceiling that enhances the main living space. Designed for both comfort and functionality, the open-concept floor plan seamlessly connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen—ideal for entertaining or everyday living. The kitchen features a breakfast bar, tile backsplash, stainless steel sink, and contemporary finishes. The split layout provides priv

Key facts

• Gated community
• Tray ceiling
• Stainless steel sink

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• STAINLESS STEEL SINK
• TRAY CEILING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA $245; Association amenities include clubhouse, gated entry, pool, recreation facilities, shuffleboard court; HOA fee includes pool, escrow reserves, grounds maintenance, private road maintenance, recreational facilities, sewer, trash, water; Association approval required; Senior community; Community features: dog park, street lights, deed restrictions, tennis courts, golf carts allowed, buyer approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Covered driveway; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured double wide (Jacobsen); One story; Faces west
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Covered patio; Rain gutters; Level lot; Private maintained road; Asphalt/paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Double pane windows; French doors
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $524 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $189k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 4.6% in Dade City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 667 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,660/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 322% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.99%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,041
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $45,745
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33525

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 667
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,660 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,936/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$245
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $524

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,996

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $635	-5% $580	+0% $524	+5% $469	+10% $414
Rent	-10% $314	-5% $419	+0% $524	+5% $630	+10% $735
Rate	-1.0pp $623	-0.5pp $574	base $524	+0.5pp $474	+1.0pp $423

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10043 Collingwood Ave Dade City, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$3,000	$2.33	25d	1	0.02mi
10030 Sterling Ave Unit 1234467P Dade City, FL	2.0	2.0	1280	$2,744	$2.14	13d	1	0.03mi
10034 Hamp Dr Unit 1234478P Dade City, FL	3.0	1.0	968	$3,164	$3.27	2d	1	0.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $245 · $2,940/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $195,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    listed $195,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,936 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,936 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,916
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,936
• − Insurance: −$1,772
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,553
• − Management: −$2,553
• − HOA: −$2,940
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $3,565
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$856
• After-tax cash flow: $5,438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 21,077
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,077
• Household income: $69,068
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 322.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.48%
• Current HPI: 358.2149
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+21.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,936 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.