Newlin Plan · Bryan, TX 77807

$245,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,484 sqft · SingleFamily · 962 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 49% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 961 days

🏗️ New construction. The $245,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $276,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $246k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-209 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.9% in Bryan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#99 in TX, #3,341 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, employment D+.
• Bryan ISD (urban): math 30% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #608 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mary Branch El (math 32% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 617 students, 83% FRL); Jane Long (math 32% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 998 students, 85% FRL); Travis B Bryan H S (math 22% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,419 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 549 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 41d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 962 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,931 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 962 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.25%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $276,000
• List price: $245,990
• Delta: -10.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2210 Jeter Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,484 (0%)	5mo	$252,990	$170	85
1825 Taggart Trl	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,484 (0%)	3mo	$247,540	$167	82
5539 Harriet St	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+1%)	3mo	$278,261	$185	81
1819 Taggart Trl	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,484 (0%)	5mo	$239,990	$162	80
2688 Fremont	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,415 (-5%)	2mo	$254,240	$180	74
2038 Chief St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+8%)	2mo	$265,000	$165	73
2212 Jeter Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+13%)	5mo	$252,390	$151	66
2665 Fremont Ct	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,665 (+12%)	0mo	$266,600	$160	60
5533 Harriet St	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,665 (+12%)	1mo	$272,000	$163	60
1826 Taggart Trl	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-14%)	1mo	$225,991	$178	58
5541 Harriet St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,263 (-15%)	4mo	$249,276	$197	57
5538 Harriet St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,263 (-15%)	4mo	$256,640	$203	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-58,030
• Equity at exit: $41,153

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-67,574
• Equity at exit: $23,863

Cash invested: $77,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 101 active · 46 under contract
• Months of supply: 27.5 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $276,000 ($181/sqft)
• Median days on market: 74 d
• This list price: 13% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77807

• Active inventory: 549
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,149 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,447
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$345 /mo · $4,140/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,414

Max offer price $245,697

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-19	-5% $-114	+0% $-209	+5% $-305	+10% $-400
Rent	-10% $-379	-5% $-294	+0% $-209	+5% $-125	+10% $-40
Rate	-1.0pp $-70	-0.5pp $-139	base $-209	+0.5pp $-281	+1.0pp $-354

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,000
• Closing costs: $8,280
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5433 Bear RUN Bryan, TX	4.0	2.0	1745	$2,195	$1.26	184d	1	0.02mi
1971 Chief St Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	1517	$2,100	$1.38	162d	1	0.10mi
2010 Chief St Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	1603	$2,250	$1.40	184d	1	0.13mi
1967 Lili Cv Bryan, TX	4.0	3.0	1833	$2,000	$1.09	51d	1	0.17mi
2148 Chief St Bryan, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,000	$1.28	154d	1	0.18mi
1942 Taggart Trl Bryan, TX	4.0	2.0	1804	$2,200	$1.22	1d	1	0.25mi
2043 Chief St Bryan, TX	4.0	2.0	1725	$2,300	$1.33	0d	1	0.26mi
2043 Chief St Bryan, TX	4.0	2.0	1725	$2,300	$1.33	12d	1	0.26mi
5344 Samuel Run Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	1585	$2,075	$1.31	51d	1	0.29mi
5322 Lyle Pl Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,200	$1.57	51d	1	0.31mi
2119 Chief St Bryan, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,400	$1.53	0d	1	0.31mi
2677 Fremont Ct Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$2,050	$1.62	10d	1	0.32mi
5350 Samuel Run Bryan, TX	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,100	$1.18	51d	1	0.32mi
2115 Chief St Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	1531	$2,100	$1.37	38d	1	0.33mi
2111 Chief St Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,900	$1.39	35d	1	0.35mi
1921 Cartwright St Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,875	$1.18	37d	1	0.36mi
1878 Taggart Trl Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$2,000	$1.33	40d	1	0.44mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $245,990 Active 962 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $245,990 Active 961 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $245,990 Active 960 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $245,990 Active 959 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $245,990 Active 958 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $245,990 Active 956 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $245,990 Active 955 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $245,990 Active 954 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $245,990 Active 953 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $245,990 Active 952 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $245,990 Active 951 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $245,990 Active 950 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $245,990 Active 949 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $245,990 Active 948 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $245,990 Active 947 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $245,990 Active 946 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $245,990 Active 945 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $245,990 Active 944 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $245,990 Active 943 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $245,990 Active 942 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $245,990 Active 941 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $245,990 Active 940 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $245,990 Active 939 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $245,990 Active 938 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $245,990 Active 937 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $245,990 Active 936 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $245,990 Active 935 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $245,990 Active 934 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $245,990 Active 933 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $245,990 Active 932 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $245,990 Active 931 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $245,990 Active 930 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $245,990 Active 929 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $245,990 Active 928 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $245,990 Active 927 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $245,990 Active 926 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $245,990 Active 925 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $245,990 Active 924 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $245,990 Active 923 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    price $245,990 Active 922 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $250,990 Active 922 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $250,990 Active 921 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $250,990 Active 920 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $250,990 Active 919 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $250,990 Active 918 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $250,990 Active 917 DOM
47. 2026-09-24
    days on market $250,990 Active 916 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $250,990 Active 915 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $250,990 Active 914 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $250,990 Active 913 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,792
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,460
• − Property taxes: −$4,140
• − Insurance: −$1,380
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,063
• − Management: −$2,063
• − Depreciation: −$8,029
• Taxable loss: −$7,344
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,763
• After-tax cash flow: $-750/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious floorplan and is move-in ready, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New windows and doors — Enhances energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mary Branch El F TX #3,052/4,322 Nat'l #30,133/41,679 Middle Stephen F Austin F TX #1,036/1,662 Nat'l #8,750/14,009 High Travis B Bryan H S F TX #1,170/1,632 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bryan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811790
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,895
• Composite: 26.26/100
• National rank: #7253
• State rank: #608 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Bryan

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #3341

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bryan, TX
• County: Brazos County · 267,942 people
• City population: 101,772
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,227
• Household income: $74,375
• Rent vs Own: 44.5% rent · 55.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

---

Population outlook (Brazos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,942 people
• By 2030: 296,630 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 354,560 · +32.3%
• By 2050: 414,616 · +54.7%
• By 2075: 562,158 · +109.8%
• By 2100: 678,828 · +153.3%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 18% Black 14% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Brazos

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.9% · R 61.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+14.3 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+35.3 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.38%
• Current HPI: 186.1387
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-49.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-07-19 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-21 Listed $510,000 Zillow