Newlin Plan · Bryan, TX 77807

$259,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,484 sqft · SingleFamily · 870 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 49% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 869 days

🏗️ New construction. The $259,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $277,063.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.0% in Bryan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#99 in TX, #3,341 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, employment D+.
• Bryan ISD (urban): math 30% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #608 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mary Branch El (math 32% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 617 students, 83% FRL); Jane Long (math 32% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 998 students, 85% FRL); Travis B Bryan H S (math 22% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,419 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 367 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 870 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,226 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 870 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.95%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,063
• List price: $259,990
• Delta: -6.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2201 Jeter Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,484 (0%)	4mo	$244,990	$165	92
5419 Bear Run	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+1%)	2mo	$273,490	$182	90
2210 Jeter Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,484 (0%)	2mo	$252,990	$170	87
2206 Jeter Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+5%)	3mo	$252,990	$162	86
1825 Taggart Trl	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,484 (0%)	0mo	$247,540	$167	84
5415 Bear Run	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,415 (-5%)	4mo	$267,890	$189	84
1819 Taggart Trl	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,484 (0%)	2mo	$239,990	$162	83
5417 Smith Lake Blvd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,564 (+5%)	3mo	$289,990	$185	82
2226 Jeter Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,665 (+12%)	3mo	$293,490	$176	69
2212 Jeter Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+13%)	2mo	$252,390	$151	69
5541 Harriet St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,263 (-15%)	0mo	$249,276	$197	60
5538 Harriet St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,263 (-15%)	1mo	$256,640	$203	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-57,011
• Equity at exit: $41,311

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-65,153
• Equity at exit: $23,955

Cash invested: $77,578 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 60 active · 36 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.3 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $284,450 ($181/sqft)
• Median days on market: 93 d
• This list price: 13% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77807

• Active inventory: 367
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,182 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,453
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$346 /mo · $4,156/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,424

Max offer price $249,463

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1	-5% $-95	+0% $-191	+5% $-286	+10% $-382
Rent	-10% $-363	-5% $-277	+0% $-191	+5% $-105	+10% $-18
Rate	-1.0pp $-51	-0.5pp $-120	base $-191	+0.5pp $-263	+1.0pp $-336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,266
• Closing costs: $8,312
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5433 Bear RUN Bryan, TX	4.0	2.0	1745	$2,195	$1.26	93d	1	0.02mi
1971 Chief St Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	1517	$2,100	$1.38	70d	1	0.10mi
2010 Chief St Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	1603	$2,250	$1.40	93d	1	0.13mi
2148 Chief St Bryan, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,000	$1.28	62d	1	0.18mi
2119 Chief St Bryan, TX	4.0	2.0	1568	$2,400	$1.53	62d	1	0.31mi
2111 Chief St Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$2,150	$1.57	62d	1	0.35mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $259,990 Active 870 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $259,990 Active 869 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $259,990 Active 868 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $259,990 Active 867 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $259,990 Active 866 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $259,990 Active 865 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $259,990 Active 862 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $259,990 Active 860 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $259,990 Active 858 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $259,990 Active 856 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $259,990 Active 854 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $259,990 Active 853 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    price $259,990 Active 852 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $264,990 Active 852 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $264,990 Active 849 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $264,990 Active 847 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $264,990 Active 846 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $264,990 Active 845 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $264,990 Active 844 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $264,990 Active 843 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $264,990 Active 842 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $264,990 Active 841 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $264,990 Active 840 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $264,990 Active 838 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $264,990 Active 837 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $264,990 Active 836 DOM
27. 2026-07-04
    days on market $264,990 Active 835 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $264,990 Active 834 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $264,990 Active 833 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $264,990 Active 832 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $264,990 Active 831 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $264,990 Active 830 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $264,990 Active 829 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $264,990 Active 828 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $264,990 Active 827 DOM
36. 2026-06-25
    days on market $264,990 Active 825 DOM
37. 2026-06-23
    days on market $264,990 Active 823 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $264,990 Active 822 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $264,990 Active 819 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $264,990 Active 818 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    price $264,990 Active 817 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $259,990 Active 817 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $259,990 Active 816 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $259,990 Active 814 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $259,990 Active 813 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $259,990 Active 811 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $259,990 Active 810 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $259,990 Active 809 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,990 Active 808 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,990 Active 804 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,187
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,520
• − Property taxes: −$4,156
• − Insurance: −$1,385
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,095
• − Management: −$2,095
• − Depreciation: −$8,060
• Taxable loss: −$7,124
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,710
• After-tax cash flow: $-579/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious floorplan and is move-in ready, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New windows and doors — Enhances energy efficiency and curb appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mary Branch El F TX #3,052/4,322 Nat'l #30,133/41,679 Middle Stephen F Austin F TX #1,036/1,662 Nat'l #8,750/14,009 High Travis B Bryan H S F TX #1,170/1,632 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bryan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811790
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,895
• Composite: 26.26/100
• National rank: #7253
• State rank: #608 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Bryan

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #3341

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bryan, TX
• County: Brazos County · 267,942 people
• City population: 101,772
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,227
• Household income: $74,375
• Rent vs Own: 44.5% rent · 55.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Brazos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,942 people
• By 2030: 296,630 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 354,560 · +32.3%
• By 2050: 414,616 · +54.7%
• By 2075: 562,158 · +109.8%
• By 2100: 678,828 · +153.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 18% Black 14% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Guatemala, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazos

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.9% · R 61.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+14.3 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+35.3 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.38%
• Current HPI: 186.1387
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-49.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2024-07-19 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-21 Listed $510,000 Zillow