894 Winding Creek Dr · Westwood Shores, TX 75862

$115,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1990 5.20 ac lot $96/sqft · at area comps Est $119k · at est. ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Escape to the quiet beauty of Trinity County with this rustic 2-bedroom, 1-bath home nestled on approximately 5 wooded acres at 894 Winding Creek. Surrounded by the natural charm of Southeast Texas, this property offers the perfect setting for those seeking peace, privacy, and room to roam. Start your mornings on the front porch and wind down in the evenings on the back deck, taking in the serene wooded views and slower pace of country living. A detached garage/workshop sits adjacent to the home, providing ample space for projects, storage, or hobbies. This home is a true diamond in the rough—ready for your vision and a little TLC to bring it to life. Whether you’re looking for

Key facts

• Front porch
• Wooded views
• Wooded acres

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• BACK DECK
• DETACHED GARAGE
• WOODED VIEWS
• WOODED ACRES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 3 garage spaces
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer service
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (1,200 living area)
• Construction: Wood siding construction; Built in 1990; Composition and metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Open kitchen integrated with family and dining areas
• Bedrooms: 4 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Space heater for heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room combined; Pantry; Kitchen and dining combo

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $75 ($900/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.6% in Westwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#914 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Trinity ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #682 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lansberry El (math 35% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 570 students, 91% FRL); Trinity H S (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 350 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 50% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 468 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $201 of equity ($795 loan paydown + $-594 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Trinity County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 91% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.80%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $118,711
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -3.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
180 Cherry Creek Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (0%)	11mo	$125,000	$104	79
145 Tic Toc Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (0%)	18mo	$119,900	$100	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.52% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,294
• Equity at exit: $30,451

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.54×
• Total profit: $17,293
• Equity at exit: $34,331

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75862

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 468
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,182 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,490/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $75

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,087

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $115,000 Pending 31 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $115,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $115,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-04-30
   listed $115,000 Active 927-char remark
5. 2025-08-31
   historical
6. 2025-04-12
   price $139,000
7. 2025-04-12
   status Active
8. 2025-04-08
   historical
9. 2025-02-25
   price $152,000
10. 2024-10-08
    listed $170,000 Active
11. 2014-02-07
    soldstatus
12. 2011-12-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,490 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,490 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 91% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$2,490
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,134
• − Management: −$1,134
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$941
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$226
• After-tax cash flow: $1,126/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trinity ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843200
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,104
• Composite: 23.31/100
• National rank: #7919
• State rank: #682 of 826 in TX

Livability — Westwood Shores

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #914
• US rank: #16347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,030

Population outlook (Trinity County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,746 people
• By 2030: 13,333 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 12,542 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 11,942 · -13.1%
• By 2075: 10,871 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 9,784 · -28.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trinity

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.0) · D 16.2% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -67.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.0 2020: R+61.3 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.52%
• Current HPI: 174.6638
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-32.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-12 Price Changed $139,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-12 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-04-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-25 Price Changed $152,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-08 Listed $170,000 HARMLS
• 2014-02-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+14.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,490 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.