628 E Birch Ave E · Alamo, TX 78516

$68,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 930 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1972 0.26 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable opportunity in the heart of Alamo! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers approximately 800 square feet of living space and sits on a generous 11,250 square foot lot, providing plenty of room for future improvements or expansion. Built in 1972, the property presents an excellent opportunity for investors, first-time buyers, or those looking for a renovation project. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, dining, and major roadways. Priced to sell at $68,000. Schedule your showing today and explore the potential this property has to offer.

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Conveniently located
• 0.26 acre lot

Tags

• GENEROUS LOT
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Green energy/efficiency features noted (other)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Other garage or carport (no designated garage, covered or carport spaces listed as 0)
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Living area source: HidalgoCAD
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Approximately 800 building area
• Exterior features: Patio; Other fencing; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Water heater (other)
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Countertops (other); No window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $362 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $68k).
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 3.7% in Alamo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#916 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Psja North Early College H S (math 32% / reading 46%, grade F, #859 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 2,176 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 72% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 24% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 350 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $470 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.79%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $151,590
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
607 S 9th St	0.62mi	2/1.0	896 (-4%)	11mo	$129,900	$145	55
802 Ellis Ave	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,038 (+12%)	2mo	$205,000	$197	45
831 W Hackberry Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,061 (+14%)	6mo	$169,000	$159	45
413 Alma Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,011 (+9%)	10mo	$165,000	$163	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $12,063
• Equity at exit: $10,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $40,357
• Equity at exit: $5,879

Cash invested: $19,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78516

• Home prices YoY: -6.5%
• Active inventory: 350
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,116 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$357
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,622/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $362

Break-even live

Break-even rent $658

Max offer price $68,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,000
• Closing costs: $2,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
444 E Acacia Ave Unit 3 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	23d	1	0.27mi
428 E Acacia Ave Unit 4 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,300	$1.25	23d	1	0.34mi
312 E Crockett Ave Alamo, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$699	$1.00	44d	1	0.60mi
1141 W Acacia Ave Unit 8 Alamo, TX	2.0	1.0	600	$700	$1.17	44d	1	0.67mi
740 N Alamo Rd Unit 2 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	956	$1,075	$1.12	23d	1	0.81mi
740 N Alamo Rd Unit 2 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	956	$1,075	$1.12	44d	1	0.81mi
740 N Alamo Rd Unit 1 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	956	$1,200	$1.26	44d	1	0.81mi
311 E Crockett Ave Unit 21 Alamo, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$699	$1.00	44d	1	0.89mi
311 E Crockett Ave Alamo, TX	1.0	1.0	600	$600	$1.00	44d	1	0.89mi
311 E Crockett Ave Apt 54 Alamo, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$699	$1.00	23d	1	0.89mi
311 E Crockett Ave Unit 9 Alamo, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$900	$1.29	44d	1	0.90mi
913 S 13th St Unit 1 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,050	$1.04	44d	1	0.91mi
1122 Country Club Dr Unit 4 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,200	$1.13	14d	1	1.03mi
1233 Country Club Dr Unit 4 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	1099	$1,050	$0.96	44d	1	1.03mi
1513 W Crockett St Unit 16 Alamo, TX	2.0	1.0	598	$745	$1.25	44d	1	1.07mi
1032 Palm Dr Apt 3 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,225	$1.14	23d	1	1.09mi
1020 Palm Dr Unit 3 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,225	$1.14	23d	1	1.09mi
1036 Palm Dr Unit 1 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,225	$1.14	23d	1	1.09mi
404 N Cesar Chavez Rd Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	783	$1,079	$1.38	44d	2	1.13mi
837 S 13th St Alamo, TX	2.0	1.5	1104	$1,095	$0.99	14d	1	1.21mi
109 W Business Highway 83 Donna, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$785	$1.17	44d	1	1.23mi
435 Medina Ln Unit 1 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	908	$1,200	$1.32	44d	1	1.30mi
435 Medina Ln Unit 1 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	908	$1,125	$1.24	23d	1	1.30mi
443 Medina Ln Unit 3 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	908	$1,125	$1.24	23d	1	1.30mi
1020 Palm Dr Unit 1 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1078	$1,275	$1.18	44d	1	1.34mi
1225 Valle Vista St Unit 2 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,300	$1.25	44d	1	1.34mi
440 Frio Ln Apt 1 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	908	$1,275	$1.40	44d	1	1.37mi
448 Frio Ln Apt 3 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	908	$1,200	$1.32	44d	1	1.37mi
440 Frio Ln Apt 3 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	908	$1,200	$1.32	44d	1	1.37mi
444 Frio Ln Apt 3 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	908	$1,125	$1.24	23d	1	1.37mi
439 Frio Ln Unit 1 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	908	$1,125	$1.24	23d	1	1.37mi
427 Frio Ln Apt 4 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1118	$1,275	$1.14	44d	1	1.37mi
448 Frio Ln Apt 3 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	908	$1,200	$1.32	23d	1	1.37mi
440 Frio Ln Apt 3 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	908	$1,200	$1.32	23d	1	1.37mi
427 Frio Ln Apt 1 Alamo, TX	2.0	2.0	908	$1,125	$1.24	21d	1	1.37mi
1305 Valle Vista St Unit 4 Alamo, TX	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	44d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $68,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $68,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $68,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $68,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $68,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $68,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 557-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $68,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,622 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,622 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,394
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,809
• − Property taxes: −$1,622
• − Insurance: −$340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,071
• − Management: −$1,071
• − Depreciation: −$1,978
• Taxable income: $3,501
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$840
• After-tax cash flow: $3,499/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alamo

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #916
• US rank: #16356

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alamo, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 34,370
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,370
• Household income: $53,229
• Rent vs Own: 24.5% rent · 75.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 476.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 89% Two or more races 40% White 10% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 86%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada
• Languages at home: 24% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.56%
• Current HPI: 225.4438
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $68,000 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,622 · +11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.