39 W Gay St · Red Lion, PA 17356

$185,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,704 sqft · Townhouse public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1920 2,940 sqft lot Est $252k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LARGE BRICK HOME ON QUIET STREET WALK TO ELEMENTARY SCHOOL. NEW ROOF IN 95. REMODELED KITCHEN LARGE ROOMS 1/2 BATH OFF KITCHEN. FENCED YARD, GARAGE WALK OUT BASEMENT. WALK UP ATTIC FOR ALL YOUR STORAGE NEEDS . NICE FRONT PORCH. ONE YEAR HOME WARRANTY. |

Key facts

• Built 1920
• Listed 5 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Brick construction; Other foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Finished above-grade area per assessor
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Ground rent paid annually; No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on main level
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Other heating fuel; Other hot water
• Interior features: Basement present (other type)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($255/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.5% in Red Lion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#349 in PA, #3,056 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Red Lion Area SD (suburban): math 36% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #282 of 539 in PA (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mazie Gable El Sch (math 23% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,116 of 1,518 statewide, top 74%, 523 students, 73% FRL); Red Lion Area Jhs (math 23% / reading 49%, grade F, #313 of 512 statewide, top 62%, 813 students, 50% FRL); Red Lion Area Shs (math 63% / reading 24%, grade F, #211 of 437 statewide, top 48%, 1,432 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 28% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $63k; list at $185k implies a 194% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,232 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.49%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,192
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
274 N Main St	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,837 (+8%)	1mo	$202,000	$110	78
217 N Charles St	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-12%)	5mo	$222,500	$148	70
116 S Franklin St	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,632 (-4%)	5mo	$201,250	$123	63
202 S Main St	0.54mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,780 (+4%)	5mo	$217,000	$122	58
316 W Broadway	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,478 (-13%)	3mo	$202,500	$137	54
11 E Lancaster St	0.53mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,523 (-11%)	4mo	$192,500	$126	50
327 1st Ave	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,471 (-14%)	1mo	$205,000	$139	48
337 Winners Cir	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,504 (-12%)	3mo	$290,000	$193	45
121 Furlong Way #121	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,504 (-12%)	4mo	$265,000	$176	44
240 Palomino Way	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,520 (-11%)	3mo	$259,000	$170	41
214 Equine Cv #214	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,472 (-14%)	4mo	$255,000	$173	40
218 Equine Cv	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,472 (-14%)	4mo	$265,000	$180	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-28,607
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-23,094
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17356

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,632 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,653/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,605

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $126	-5% $74	+0% $21	+5% $-31	+10% $-83
Rent	-10% $-108	-5% $-43	+0% $21	+5% $86	+10% $150
Rate	-1.0pp $114	-0.5pp $68	base $21	+0.5pp $-27	+1.0pp $-75

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16 W High St Red Lion, PA	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,075	$1.00	23d	1	0.16mi
705 Country Club Rd Red Lion, PA	3.0	2.5	1660	$1,695	$1.02	46d	1	0.65mi
703 Country Club Rd Red Lion, PA	3.0	2.5	1540	$1,795	$1.17	46d	1	0.66mi
520 S Pine St Red Lion, PA	4.0	3.0	2088	$2,295	$1.10	16d	1	0.80mi
571 S Main St Red Lion, PA	2.0	1.0	2152	$1,500	$0.70	23d	1	0.93mi
201 Burrows Rd Red Lion, PA	3.0	2.5	1485	$1,924	$1.30	16d	1	1.09mi
21 Windsor Way Red Lion, PA	3.0	2.0–2.5	1385	$2,150	$1.55	16d	8	1.30mi
306 Orchard Ct Red Lion, PA	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,495	$1.15	23d	1	1.35mi
118 W Main St Windsor, PA	2.0	1.0	1402	$1,150	$0.82	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 239-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   listed $185,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,653 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,788 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: +$135/yr (+$11/mo · 5.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,653
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,567
• − Management: −$1,567
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$2,869
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$688
• After-tax cash flow: $943/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Lion Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4220100
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $60,225
• Composite: 37.91/100
• National rank: #4313
• State rank: #282 of 539 in PA

Livability — Red Lion

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #349
• US rank: #3056

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Red Lion, PA
• County: York County · 278,806 people
• City population: 22,869
• Metro: York-Hanover, PA
• Population (ZIP): 22,869
• Household income: $86,561
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 559.0

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 454,205 people
• By 2030: 457,407 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 457,529 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 448,261 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 427,388 · -5.9%
• By 2100: 384,218 · -15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.3) · D 36.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -25.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.3 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+29.3 2012: R+21.2 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.16%
• Current HPI: 259.7294
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: York-Hanover, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+208.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-01-11 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $62,900 Public Records
• 2002-07-16 Sold (MLS) $62,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-05-04 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-09-07 Listed $62,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-08-23 Listed $59,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,653 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.