727 Oak St · Adrian, MI 49221

$69,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 894 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 1940 4,792 sqft lot Est $109k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 727 Oak Street, a classic Michigan bungalow loaded with character and just waiting for the right owner to bring it back to life. This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a fantastic layout with a spacious living room featuring original charm, an eat-in kitchen with painted cabinetry, a gas range, stainless steel refrigerator, and a cozy built-in breakfast nook perfect for family meals. The bedrooms provide flexible space for a growing family, guests, or a home office, while the full bathroom is ready for a fresh update. A large enclosed back porch adds bonus square footage and could easily be transformed into a sunroom, mudroom, or extra storage with a little finishing work. The home does need updates throughout, including flooring, paint, and bathroom renovation. Sitting on a nice lot with mature trees and a driveway for off-street parking, this property is a great candidate for a fix and flip, a rental hold, or a homeower.

Key facts

• Painted cabinetry
• Eat-in kitchen
• Gas range

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• PAINTED CABINETRY
• GAS RANGE
• STAINLESS STEEL REFRIGERATOR
• BUILT-IN BREAKFAST NOOK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 894; Lot size approximately 0.11 acres
• Financial info: Not specified
• HOA & community: Not specified

Exterior

• Parking: Not specified
• Security: Not specified
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1940
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding

Interior

• Kitchen: Not specified
• Bedrooms: Not specified
• Flooring: Not specified
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Total of 3 rooms; Michigan-style basement
• Laundry & utility: Not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $553 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 5.7% in Adrian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#342 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
• Adrian School District (town): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #370 of 540 in MI (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 214 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 137 units permitted in Lenawee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $483 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lenawee County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $70k implies a 366% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $69,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.88%
• DSCR: 2.51
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $109,068
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
536 Tabor St	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	965 (+8%)	8mo	$117,500	$122	62
547 Tabor St	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	974 (+9%)	11mo	$55,000	$56	59
209 Sarah St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	916 (+2%)	11mo	$116,000	$127	58
839 Dennis St	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	938 (+5%)	3mo	$90,000	$96	54
224 Berry St	0.56mi	4/1.5 (+1)	938 (+5%)	8mo	$130,000	$139	52
831 E Maumee St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+13%)	1mo	$143,900	$143	52
1046 Railroad St	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (+13%)	14mo	$60,000	$60	49
210 Elm St	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	950 (+6%)	12mo	$33,000	$35	44
1169 Division St	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	975 (+9%)	2mo	$160,000	$164	44
121 W Beecher St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,000 (+12%)	6mo	$60,000	$60	42
1025 Frank St	0.47mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,002 (+12%)	14mo	$111,300	$111	42
1157 Division St	0.73mi	3/1.0	975 (+9%)	12mo	$120,000	$123	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $23,917
• Equity at exit: $10,422

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.39×
• Total profit: $66,342
• Equity at exit: $6,044

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49221

• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 4.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,368 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,586/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $553

Break-even live

Break-even rent $668

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
413 E Maple Ave Unit 2 Adrian, MI	2.0	1.0	652	$1,200	$1.84	23d	1	0.83mi
413 E Maple Ave Unit 1 Adrian, MI	2.0	1.0	826	$1,500	$1.82	23d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-16
   listed $69,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,586 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,586 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,412
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,586
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,313
• − Management: −$1,313
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $5,902
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,416
• After-tax cash flow: $5,215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Adrian School District
• NCES district ID: 2601950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,288
• Composite: 25.33/100
• National rank: #7480
• State rank: #370 of 540 in MI

Livability — Adrian

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #8722

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Adrian, MI
• City population: 41,041
• Population (ZIP): 41,041

Population outlook (Lenawee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,497 people
• By 2030: 92,722 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 85,641 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 77,971 · -18.4%
• By 2075: 60,043 · -37.1%
• By 2100: 41,468 · -56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lenawee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.0) · D 37.8% · R 60.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: -23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.0 2020: R+19.9 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+1.3 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -143.64%
• Current HPI: 237.3796
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+141.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $69,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-15 Listed $69,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-06-15 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-06-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-06-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2015-03-12 Listed $39,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2015-03-12 Listed $39,900 REALCOMP
• 2011-01-03 Sold (MLS) $15,000 REALCOMP
• 2011-01-03 Sold (MLS) $15,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-12-30 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-01-21 Listed $28,900 REALCOMP
• 2009-01-21 Listed $28,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,586 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.