5432 Trailbend Dr · Black Jack, MO 63033

$200,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 1972 7,788 sqft lot Est $182k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• ARV discount +3.2/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 5432 Trailbend Dr This is a huge 4 bedroom 3 bathroom split foyer home in the sought after Trailwoods subdivision. This home is well maintained and have many updated Roof (2022) Furnace (2021) Sliding doors both levels (2021). It needs a little clean up and TLC. This one is priced to sell and wont last long. Call listing agent for showing

Key facts

• Split foyer home
• Updated roof
• Well maintained

Tags

• SPLIT FOYER HOME
• WELL MAINTAINED
• UPDATED ROOF
• UPDATED FURNACE
• SLIDING DOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (3.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jamestown Elem. (math 2% / reading 37%, grade F, #935 of 1,115 statewide, top 84%, 333 students, 66% FRL); Central Middle (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #348 of 391 statewide, top 89%, 707 students, 68% FRL); Hazelwood Central High (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #455 of 521 statewide, top 88%, 1,628 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $200k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.57%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $182,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12512 Early Morning Dr	0.30mi	4/3.0	1,218 (+2%)	3mo	$220,000	$181	81
5012 Trailbend Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,268 (+6%)	1mo	$179,000	$141	63
12178 El Camara Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (-5%)	4mo	$204,900	$179	61
6250 Pennyrich Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,186 (-1%)	2mo	$149,000	$126	61
12166 La Padera Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,136 (-5%)	2mo	$200,000	$176	57
6363 Coventry Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,186 (-1%)	8mo	$168,000	$142	55
12113 La Padera Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,144 (-5%)	4mo	$149,000	$130	55
12095 El Camara Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,088 (-9%)	0mo	$154,900	$142	54
12705 Stubwood Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,179 (-2%)	7mo	$265,000	$225	49
11955 Red Barn Ct	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-7%)	5mo	$169,900	$152	46
12136 La Padera Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,060 (-12%)	4mo	$165,000	$156	44
6333 Coventry Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,060 (-12%)	15mo	$146,000	$138	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $128,719
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.02×
• Total profit: $393,011
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,932 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,726/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,721

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $280	-5% $223	+0% $167	+5% $110	+10% $53
Rent	-10% $14	-5% $90	+0% $167	+5% $243	+10% $319
Rate	-1.0pp $267	-0.5pp $218	base $167	+0.5pp $115	+1.0pp $62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11592 Las Ladera Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	986	$1,616	$1.64	9d	1	1.02mi
4872 Bristol Rock Rd Black Jack, MO	4.0	2.0	1448	$2,061	$1.42	3d	1	1.10mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,364	$1.11	0d	18	1.14mi
11635 Hazeloak Dr Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1124	$1,728	$1.54	19d	1	1.18mi
12810 Verwood Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1408	$2,026	$1.44	45d	1	1.28mi
11969 Continental Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0–3.0	1.5	1075	$1,325	$1.23	0d	4	1.39mi
1911 Redman Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1454	$1,495	$1.03	3d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2025-02-18
   status Pending
2. 2025-02-18
   status Active
3. 2025-01-09
   status Pending
4. 2024-11-22
   status Active
5. 2024-10-25
   historical
6. 2024-08-14
   status Active
7. 2024-08-02
   status Pending
8. 2024-07-24
   listed $200,000 Active
9. 2023-03-21
   historical
10. 2023-03-10
    listed $210,000 Active
11. 2023-02-28
    historical
12. 2010-04-13
    soldstatus $80,000
13. 2006-06-14
    soldstatus $150,000
14. 1989-11-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,726 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,726 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,726
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,854
• − Management: −$1,854
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,276
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$306
• After-tax cash flow: $2,306/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Black Jack, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 42,258
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+33.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2025-02-18 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-18 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-09 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-22 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-25 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-14 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-02 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-24 Listed $200,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-21 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-10 Listed $210,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-28 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 1989-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,726 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.