302 E Crockett St · Luling, TX 78648

$144,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,301 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1930 6,677 sqft lot $111/sqft · 33% below area Est $215k · 33% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

1930's home on large lot with tons of potential. Convenient location and great opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking for a true fixer-upper. Bring your vision and make it your own. Separate large storage shed/workshop. Large fenced in yard and parking. Old storm cellar that could possibly still be accessed. Close to schools, parks, shopping & dining. Buyer to verify all info.

Key facts

• Close to parks
• Close to schools
• Large lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• STORAGE SHED
• FENCED IN YARD
• STORM CELLAR
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO PARKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.7% in Luling — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#303 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Luling ISD (town): math 23% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #718 of 826 in TX (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,206 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.06%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,354
• List price: $144,900
• Delta: -32.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
212 Walnut Ave	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,295 (-0%)	9mo	$225,000	$174	87
516 S Pecan Ave	0.28mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,377 (+6%)	9mo	$150,000	$109	64
335 E Newton St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-4%)	9mo	$215,788	$173	61
100 E Austin St	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,186 (-9%)	10mo	$79,000	$67	54
818 S Laurel Ave	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,304 (+0%)	18mo	$227,000	$174	54
103 Thompson St	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,216 (-6%)	1mo	$155,000	$127	50
721 S Laurel Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,334 (+2%)	20mo	$119,000	$89	50
1025 E Fannin St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,394 (+7%)	6mo	$188,000	$135	49
223 Goliad St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,226 (-6%)	23mo	$174,999	$143	48
302 Holly Ave	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,214 (-7%)	13mo	$250,000	$206	47
854 S Magnolia Ave	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,378 (+6%)	16mo	$229,000	$166	40
811 S Oak Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,485 (+14%)	18mo	$175,000	$118	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-10,447
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $7,664
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78648

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,465 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,589/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,206

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
306 E Bowie St Luling, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$1,299	$1.05	10d	1	0.08mi
117 E Crockett St Luling, TX	2.0	2.0	964	$1,500	$1.56	1d	1	0.12mi
600 S Pecan Ave Luling, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$1,900	$1.08	1d	1	0.33mi
225 Lamar St Luling, TX	3.0	1.0	1036	$1,100	$1.06	43d	1	0.34mi
609 S Pecan Ave Luling, TX	2.0	2.0	1368	$1,600	$1.17	1d	1	0.36mi
521 S Oak Ave Luling, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,650	$1.31	43d	1	0.50mi
106 Huff St Luling, TX	3.0	1.5	1273	$1,600	$1.26	43d	1	0.80mi
127 Hillcrest Dr Luling, TX	3.0	2.0	1383	$1,550	$1.12	16d	1	0.89mi
126 Bellaire St Luling, TX	3.0	2.0	1088	$1,800	$1.65	10d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,900 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,900 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,900 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $144,900 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $144,900 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,900 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,900 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $144,900 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    1930's home on large lot with tons of potential. Convenient location and great opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking for a true fixer-upper. Bring your vision and make it your own. Separate large storage shed/workshop. Large fenced in yard and parking. Old storm cellar that could possibly still be accessed. Close to schools, parks, shopping & dining. Buyer to verify all info.

15. 2026-03-26
    listed $155,000 Active 403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (403 chars)

    1930's home on large lot with tons of potential. Convenient location and great opportunity for investors, renovators, or buyers looking for a true fixer-upper. Bring your vision and make it your own. Separate large storage shed/workshop. Large fenced in yard and parking. Old storm cellar that could possibly still be accessed. Close to schools, parks, shopping & dining. Buyer to verify all info.

16. 2019-04-09
    soldstatus
17. 2004-08-31
    soldstatus
18. 1999-11-01
    historical
19. 1999-05-24
    listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,589 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,652 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,062/yr (+$89/mo · 66.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,581
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$1,589
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,407
• − Management: −$1,407
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable income: $123
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$29
• After-tax cash flow: $2,428/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Luling ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828590
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,233
• Composite: 21.21/100
• National rank: #8411
• State rank: #718 of 826 in TX

Livability — Luling

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #303
• US rank: #6859

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Luling, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,022

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 45% Two or more races 26% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Lithuanian 2% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.32%
• Current HPI: 224.4365
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $144,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $155,000 Unlock MLS
• 2019-04-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-11-01 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 1999-05-24 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,589 · -14.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.