3555 S Pacific Hwy #48 · Medford, OR 97501

$155,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Land public records · 79 Days on market

Built 2022 $116/sqft · 34% below area Est $244k · 36% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ALL AGES COMMUNITY!! You will want to tour this beautiful, pristine, bright and cozy 2022, 1380 square foot, 3 bedroom, 2 bath doublewide mobile home in this well cared for fully fenced in ALL AGES PARK. Enjoy your morning coffee out on the covered front porch or just enjoy the fresh air. With this park there are so many amenities that your whole family will be able to enjoy. Enjoy the large swimming pool, hot tub, wonderful gym not to mention a family friendly club house. You can BBQ and there are plenty of tables and chairs for your functions. They even have a dog park with all kinds of things to keep them interested & 2 pickle ball courts if you play. The kids playground is safety fenced too. So much to offer! You will want to set up your tour right away before you miss out on this great buy. Buyers must be approved by the park.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Wonderful gym
• Dog park

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LARGE SWIMMING POOL
• HOT TUB
• WONDERFUL GYM
• DOG PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $156k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $494 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $156k).
• Recommended offer: $147k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 2.8% in Medford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#78 in OR, #3,467 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Phoenix-Talent SD 4 (suburban): math 14% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #58 of 58 in OR (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($147k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,546 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.57%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,568
• List price: $155,900
• Delta: -35.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $5,268
• Equity at exit: $23,245

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $41,366
• Equity at exit: $13,479

Cash invested: $43,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97501

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,777 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$818
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $335/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $494

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,152

Max offer price $155,900

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $582	-5% $538	+0% $494	+5% $450	+10% $219
Rent	-10% $353	-5% $423	+0% $494	+5% $564	+10% $634
Rate	-1.0pp $572	-0.5pp $533	base $494	+0.5pp $453	+1.0pp $412

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,975
• Closing costs: $4,677
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
168 Northridge Ter Medford, OR	2.0	1.5	950	$1,600	$1.68	21d	1	0.21mi
204 Cheryl Ln Unit J Phoenix, OR	2.0	1.5	1008	$1,350	$1.34	44d	1	0.63mi
110 6th St Phoenix, OR	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,895	$1.82	21d	1	0.89mi
110 6th St Phoenix, OR	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,895	$1.82	14d	1	0.89mi
211 W 1st St Apt B Phoenix, OR	2.0	1.5	1250	$1,600	$1.28	14d	1	1.23mi
412 Oak St Unit 2 Phoenix, OR	3.0	2.5	1368	$1,750	$1.28	44d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-05
   listed $155,900 Active 848-char remark

   Show marketing remark (848 chars)

   ALL AGES COMMUNITY!! You will want to tour this beautiful, pristine, bright and cozy 2022, 1380 square foot, 3 bedroom, 2 bath doublewide mobile home in this well cared for fully fenced in ALL AGES PARK. Enjoy your morning coffee out on the covered front porch or just enjoy the fresh air. With this park there are so many amenities that your whole family will be able to enjoy. Enjoy the large swimming pool, hot tub, wonderful gym not to mention a family friendly club house. You can BBQ and there are plenty of tables and chairs for your functions. They even have a dog park with all kinds of things to keep them interested & 2 pickle ball courts if you play. The kids playground is safety fenced too. So much to offer! You will want to set up your tour right away before you miss out on this great buy. Buyers must be approved by the park.

2. 2026-02-27
   listed $155,900 Active 887-char remark

   Show marketing remark (887 chars)

   ALL AGES COMMUNITY!! You will want to ALL AGES COMMUNITY!! You will want to tour this beautiful, pristine, bright and cozy 2022, 1380 square foot, 3 bedroom, 2 bath doublewide mobile home in this well cared for fully fenced in ALL AGES PARK. Enjoy your morning coffee out on the covered front porch or just enjoy the fresh air. With this park there are so many amenities that your whole family will be able to enjoy. Enjoy the large swimming pool, hot tub, wonderful gym not to mention a family friendly club house. You can BBQ and there are plenty of tables and chairs for your functions. They even have a dog park with all kinds of things to keep them interested & 2 pickle ball courts if you play. The kids playground is safety fenced too. So much to offer! You will want to set up your tour right away before you miss out on this great buy. Buyers must be approved by the park.

3. 2025-12-22
   historical
4. 2025-09-15
   price $174,000
5. 2025-07-29
   price $179,000
6. 2025-06-20
   listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $335 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,512 · $126/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,177/yr (+$98/mo · 351.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,328
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,733
• − Property taxes: −$335
• − Insurance: −$780
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,706
• − Management: −$1,706
• − Depreciation: −$4,535
• Taxable income: $3,533
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$848
• After-tax cash flow: $5,076/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix-Talent SD 4
• NCES district ID: 4109630
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $38,625
• Composite: 19.24/100
• National rank: #8809
• State rank: #58 of 58 in OR

Livability — Medford

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #3467

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 159,661 people
• City population: 95,759
• Metro: Medford, OR
• Population (ZIP): 44,670
• Household income: $63,977
• Rent vs Own: 45.6% rent · 54.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1799.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 16% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -428.31%
• Current HPI: 248.6495
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Metro: Medford, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-15.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $155,900 RMLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $155,900 MLSCO
• 2025-12-22 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $174,000 MLSCO
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $179,000 MLSCO
• 2025-06-20 Listed $185,000 MLSCO

Property tax history

+21.5%/yr

Latest (2020): $335 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.