4449 S Carpenter Rd Unit B12 · Ceres, CA 95358

$79,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Manufactured · 148 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * ALL AGES PARK * * $2200 towards closing costs! Charming, fully remodeled 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home that feels fresh, bright, and inviting. Recent upgrades include new flooring, updated kitchen and bath, and a beautifully refreshed interior from top to bottom. The open living area flows nicely into the kitchen, making the space both functional and comfortable. This move-in-ready home is perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone seeking affordable, updated living.

Key facts

• Fully remodeled
• Updated bath
• Refreshed interior

Tags

• FULLY REMODELED
• NEW FLOORING
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATH
• REFRESHED INTERIOR
• OPEN LIVING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $741 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.5% vs local median 3.8% in Ceres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#923 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D-.
• Ceres Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #303 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $550 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.95%
• DSCR: 2.78
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $34,341
• Equity at exit: $11,854

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.08×
• Total profit: $90,780
• Equity at exit: $6,874

Cash invested: $22,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95358

• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,634 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,192/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $741

Break-even live

Break-even rent $695

Max offer price $79,500

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,875
• Closing costs: $2,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,500 Active 148 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,500 Active 147 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,500 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,500 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,500 Active 143 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 487-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,500 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,500 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,500 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,500 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,500 Active 137 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $79,500 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,500 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,500 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,500 Active 131 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,500 Active 130 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $79,500 Active 129 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,602
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,453
• − Property taxes: −$1,192
• − Insurance: −$398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,568
• − Management: −$1,568
• − Depreciation: −$2,313
• Taxable income: $8,110
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,946
• After-tax cash flow: $6,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This fully remodeled 2-bedroom, 1-bath mobile home is move-in ready with new flooring, updated kitchen and bath, and a beautifully refreshed interior. It's perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or anyone seeking affordable, updated living.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace light fixtures — Improves aesthetics and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Improves aesthetics and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ceres Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608130
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,178
• Composite: 27.96/100
• National rank: #6858
• State rank: #303 of 517 in CA

Livability — Ceres

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #923
• US rank: #24224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 46,310
• Population (ZIP): 30,994

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 35% White 26% Asian 5% Black 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Iranian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 53% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.16%
• Current HPI: 341.6977
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B