2423 Union Blvd Unit 8B · Islip, NY 11751

$299,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 875 sqft · Condo · 136 Days on market

Built 1970

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Offers 2 Large Bedrooms With Plenty Of Closets,Spacious Living Space With An Open Floor Plan And A Modern Kitchen. There Are Fresh Carpets & New Laminate Flooring Throughout.Kitchen And Bathroom Are Tiled. Close To Parking.Shared Entrance Being Remodeled.Maintenance W/Star Discount Is $895.89 Which Includes Taxes/Heat/Hot Water/Ins/Landscaping/Snow/Trash/Gym/Pool/Amenities, Additional information: Appearance:Excel++,Interior Features:Efficiency Kitchen,Lr/Dr

Key facts

• Open concept living
• Galley-style kitchen
• Quality cabinetry

Tags

• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• GALLEY-STYLE KITCHEN
• QUALITY CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL RANGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $414 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $263k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.2% in Islip — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#59 in NY, #878 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Islip Union Free School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #186 of 590 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Maud S Sherwood Elementary School (math 42% / reading 72%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 335 students, 32% FRL); Islip Middle School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade D-, #379 of 729 statewide, top 54%, 641 students, 37% FRL); Islip High School (math 88% / reading 93%, grade A+, #231 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 892 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $299k implies a 114% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $263,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.93%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-22,044
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $14,939
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11751

• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,139 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,485/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$659
• Net cashflow: $414

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,616

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $620	-5% $517	+0% $414	+5% $311	+10% $207
Rent	-10% $166	-5% $290	+0% $414	+5% $538	+10% $662
Rate	-1.0pp $564	-0.5pp $490	base $414	+0.5pp $336	+1.0pp $258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
405 E Main St Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	750	$2,950	$3.93	44d	1	0.60mi
584 Main St Unit 1 Islip, NY	1.0	1.0	620	$3,150	$5.08	2d	1	0.64mi
584 Main St Unit 5 Islip, NY	2.0	2.0	995	$3,900	$3.92	44d	1	0.64mi
35 Penataquit Ave Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0–1.5	637	$3,120	$4.89	2d	14	0.77mi
700 Justine Ct Bay Shore, NY	1.0	1.0	625	$2,195	$3.51	21d	5	0.90mi
39 Bay Shore Ave Bay Shore, NY	1.0	1.0	544	$2,400	$4.41	44d	1	1.31mi
309 Brook Ave Unit 309-1A Bay Shore, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$2,415	$3.45	16d	1	1.38mi
325 Brook Ave Unit 325-2A Bay Shore, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$2,415	$3.45	44d	1	1.41mi
143 4th Ave Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	1091	$5,258	$4.82	2d	24	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashlandscapingpoolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-02-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-09
   price $299,000
3. 2025-12-02
   price $315,000
4. 2025-10-07
   listed $335,000 Active
5. 2017-06-12
   soldstatus $140,000 Closed 466-char remark

   Show marketing remark (466 chars)

   Offers 2 Large Bedrooms With Plenty Of Closets,Spacious Living Space With An Open Floor Plan And A Modern Kitchen. There Are Fresh Carpets & New Laminate Flooring Throughout.Kitchen And Bathroom Are Tiled. Close To Parking.Shared Entrance Being Remodeled.Maintenance W/Star Discount Is $895.89 Which Includes Taxes/Heat/Hot Water/Ins/Landscaping/Snow/Trash/Gym/Pool/Amenities, Additional information: Appearance:Excel++,Interior Features:Efficiency Kitchen,Lr/Dr

6. 2017-02-11
   status Under Contract 466-char remark

   Show marketing remark (466 chars)

   Offers 2 Large Bedrooms With Plenty Of Closets,Spacious Living Space With An Open Floor Plan And A Modern Kitchen. There Are Fresh Carpets & New Laminate Flooring Throughout.Kitchen And Bathroom Are Tiled. Close To Parking.Shared Entrance Being Remodeled.Maintenance W/Star Discount Is $895.89 Which Includes Taxes/Heat/Hot Water/Ins/Landscaping/Snow/Trash/Gym/Pool/Amenities, Additional information: Appearance:Excel++,Interior Features:Efficiency Kitchen,Lr/Dr

7. 2017-01-20
   price $142,000 466-char remark

   Show marketing remark (466 chars)

   Offers 2 Large Bedrooms With Plenty Of Closets,Spacious Living Space With An Open Floor Plan And A Modern Kitchen. There Are Fresh Carpets & New Laminate Flooring Throughout.Kitchen And Bathroom Are Tiled. Close To Parking.Shared Entrance Being Remodeled.Maintenance W/Star Discount Is $895.89 Which Includes Taxes/Heat/Hot Water/Ins/Landscaping/Snow/Trash/Gym/Pool/Amenities, Additional information: Appearance:Excel++,Interior Features:Efficiency Kitchen,Lr/Dr

8. 2017-01-17
   listed $139,000 New 466-char remark

   Show marketing remark (466 chars)

   Offers 2 Large Bedrooms With Plenty Of Closets,Spacious Living Space With An Open Floor Plan And A Modern Kitchen. There Are Fresh Carpets & New Laminate Flooring Throughout.Kitchen And Bathroom Are Tiled. Close To Parking.Shared Entrance Being Remodeled.Maintenance W/Star Discount Is $895.89 Which Includes Taxes/Heat/Hot Water/Ins/Landscaping/Snow/Trash/Gym/Pool/Amenities, Additional information: Appearance:Excel++,Interior Features:Efficiency Kitchen,Lr/Dr

9. 2013-04-19
   soldstatus $128,000 447-char remark

   Show marketing remark (447 chars)

   Move In Ready-Features 2 Large Bedrms,Spacious Layout, Lg.Closets,Lovely Unit,Pets Ok Landscaped Grounds,Common Charges Inc: Taxes,Heat,Hw,Insurance,Landsaping/Snow,Trash,Pool,Gym And Nice Clubhouse.Cable Available. Maintainence With Star-$847.00,Commute To Nyc, Near State Parks, And Ocean Beaches, Quick Ride To The Hamptons& Wine Country, Carefree Living On Long Island!!!, Additional information: Interior Features:Efficiency Kitchen,Lr/Dr

10. 2012-05-21
    listed $138,900 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    Move In Ready-Features 2 Large Bedrms,Spacious Layout, Lg.Closets,Lovely Unit,Pets Ok Landscaped Grounds,Common Charges Inc: Taxes,Heat,Hw,Insurance,Landsaping/Snow,Trash,Pool,Gym And Nice Clubhouse.Cable Available. Maintainence With Star-$847.00,Commute To Nyc, Near State Parks, And Ocean Beaches, Quick Ride To The Hamptons& Wine Country, Carefree Living On Long Island!!!, Additional information: Interior Features:Efficiency Kitchen,Lr/Dr

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,674
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$4,485
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,014
• − Management: −$3,014
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $219
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$53
• After-tax cash flow: $4,914/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Islip Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3615540
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $92,825
• Composite: 54.7/100
• National rank: #1325
• State rank: #186 of 590 in NY

Livability — Islip

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #59
• US rank: #878

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Islip, NY
• City population: 13,152
• Population (ZIP): 13,152

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Asian 5% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -368.19%
• Current HPI: 288.0267
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+115.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $315,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-07 Listed $335,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-12 Sold (MLS) $140,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-11 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-20 Price Changed $142,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-17 Listed $139,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-19 Sold (MLS) $128,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-21 Listed $138,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid