1151 Mink Trl · Pocono Mountain Lake Estates, PA 18324

$169,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 880 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1971 0.78 ac lot $192/sqft · 16% below area Est $201k · 16% under $100/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Bring your vision to life in this charming A-frame retreat in the desirable Pocono Mountain Lake Estates Community! Located on a double lot directly across from the clubhouse for ultimate convenience, this home offers soaring wood ceilings, character-filled spaces, and the perfect canvas for your updates. Whether you're looking for a weekend getaway, investment property, or your next project, the potential here is undeniable. A little TLC will go a long way in turning this into a standout Pocono escape!

Key facts

• 0.78 acre lot
• Community pool
• Built 1971

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located in Pocono Mt Lake Estates; Private maintained road access
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, playground and fitness center; Annual association fee of $1,200 (approximately $100/month)

Exterior

• Utilities: Private sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level
• Construction: Asphalt construction material; Asphalt and fiberglass roof; Built above grade finished area
• Exterior features: Storage; Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Water heater
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Flooring: Hardwood flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Propane heating; Electric heating; Ceiling fans; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Storage space; Vaulted ceilings; Living room fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $199 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,507 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• East Stroudsburg Area SD (rural): math 25% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #413 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 290 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,930 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.05%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,082
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: -15.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
124 Rabbit Ct	0.34mi	2/1.0	1,008 (+14%)	16mo	$184,000	$183	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.51% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $37,719
• Equity at exit: $80,851

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $111,165
• Equity at exit: $128,519

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18324

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 290
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,915 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,087/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,663

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $169,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $180,000 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    listed $180,000 Active 508-char remark
18. 2017-03-17
    listed $30,000
19. 2013-05-29
    listed $44,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,087 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,087 · $257/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,981
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$3,087
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,838
• − Management: −$1,838
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable loss: −$211
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$51
• After-tax cash flow: $2,438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4208670
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $57,142
• Composite: 30.13/100
• National rank: #6332
• State rank: #413 of 539 in PA

Livability — Pocono Mountain Lake Estates

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1507
• US rank: #19519

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pocono Mountain Lake Estates, PA
• Population (ZIP): 9,591

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 21% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Estonian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.51%
• Current HPI: 243.6754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+279.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $169,000 PWMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $180,000 PWMLS
• 2017-03-17 Listed $30,000 PMAR
• 2013-05-29 Listed $44,500 PMAR

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,087 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.