46 Hillery Ave · Buffalo, NY 14210

$149,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,023 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 110 Days on market

Built 1935 3,750 sqft lot $147/sqft · 35% below area Est $231k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable South Buffalo home on quiet street! This 3-bedroom single-family home features an open layout and an option for first floor living. This home is a great opportunity for anyone looking for an accessible home, or an excellent opportunity for investors. Electrical, plumbing and metal roof all updated by the current owner. Property is offered individually or as part of a three property, seven unit package (see also ml#B1660523 and B1660524) with net income of almost 40k- income and expense report is available. Owner financing available for the package deal.

Key facts

• Updated electrical
• Open layout
• First floor living

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• FIRST FLOOR LIVING
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL
• UPDATED PLUMBING
• UPDATED METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5 ($-60/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.7%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $150k implies a 1053% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,409 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.76%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,556
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -34.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
124 Zittel St	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,028 (+0%)	4mo	$206,000	$200	83
131 Geary St	0.26mi	3/2.0	945 (-8%)	4mo	$110,000	$116	68
95 Armin Pl	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,014 (-1%)	13mo	$215,000	$212	67
98 Polish Pl	0.34mi	3/1.0	960 (-6%)	11mo	$243,000	$253	65
19 Spann St	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,026 (+0%)	8mo	$170,000	$166	55
325 Cumberland Ave Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,060 (+4%)	8mo	$270,000	$255	49
77 Tamarack St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,086 (+6%)	11mo	$225,000	$207	49
323 Kirkwood Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,125 (+10%)	5mo	$210,000	$187	48
303 Casimer St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,159 (+13%)	7mo	$221,500	$191	39
121 Stevenson St	0.66mi	3/2.0	888 (-13%)	13mo	$197,760	$223	33
287 Fenton St	0.75mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,170 (+14%)	6mo	$235,000	$201	31
36 Milford St	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,158 (+13%)	9mo	$212,000	$183	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $88,726
• Equity at exit: $135,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.67×
• Total profit: $279,842
• Equity at exit: $291,223

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14210

• Home prices YoY: 13.8%
• Rents YoY: 12.7%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,389 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $-5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,395

Max offer price $149,181

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $99	-5% $47	+0% $-5	+5% $-57	+10% $-109
Rent	-10% $-115	-5% $-60	+0% $-5	+5% $50	+10% $105
Rate	-1.0pp $71	-0.5pp $33	base $-5	+0.5pp $-44	+1.0pp $-83

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34 Hayden St Unit Back Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	45d	1	0.34mi
23 Indian Orchard Pl Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	45d	1	0.41mi
2111 Seneca St #3 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	937	$1,150	$1.23	45d	1	0.43mi
1927 Seneca St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1196	$1,250	$1.05	25d	1	0.45mi
1899 Seneca St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,075	$0.95	15d	1	0.48mi
61 Princeton Pl Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	820	$1,300	$1.59	4d	1	0.51mi
76 Hammerschmidt Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,275	$1.06	3d	1	0.61mi
298 Cumberland Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1208	$2,200	$1.82	3d	1	0.70mi
102 Wildwood Pl Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	17d	1	0.87mi
214 Abbott Rd Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	945	$1,200	$1.27	15d	1	0.90mi
46 Kirkwood Dr Unit Lower West Seneca, NY	2.0	1.0	1064	$1,350	$1.27	17d	1	1.03mi
89 Macamley St #2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1274	$1,100	$0.86	11d	1	1.17mi
47 Lester St Unit Main Floor Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	45d	1	1.35mi
700 Hopkins St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,225	$1.11	15d	1	1.41mi
696 Hopkins St Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	45d	1	1.43mi
74 Woodside Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,510	$1.21	3d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-02-01
   listed $149,900 Active 571-char remark

   Show marketing remark (571 chars)

   Affordable South Buffalo home on quiet street! This 3-bedroom single-family home features an open layout and an option for first floor living. This home is a great opportunity for anyone looking for an accessible home, or an excellent opportunity for investors. Electrical, plumbing and metal roof all updated by the current owner. Property is offered individually or as part of a three property, seven unit package (see also ml#B1660523 and B1660524) with net income of almost 40k- income and expense report is available. Owner financing available for the package deal.

2. 2009-12-23
   soldstatus $13,000 212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (212 chars)

   Great opportunity on quiet well kept dead end street- 3 bedrooms, solid roof and mechanics, newer electric, large yard, some newer vinyl windows, new carpet waiting to be laid down in living room. Don't miss out!

3. 2009-12-23
   soldstatus $8,000

   Show marketing remark (212 chars)

   Great opportunity on quiet well kept dead end street- 3 bedrooms, solid roof and mechanics, newer electric, large yard, some newer vinyl windows, new carpet waiting to be laid down in living room. Don't miss out!

4. 2009-06-30
   listed $15,000 212-char remark

   Show marketing remark (212 chars)

   Great opportunity on quiet well kept dead end street- 3 bedrooms, solid roof and mechanics, newer electric, large yard, some newer vinyl windows, new carpet waiting to be laid down in living room. Don't miss out!

5. 1998-12-11
   soldstatus $37,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,670
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$1,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,334
• − Management: −$1,334
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$2,551
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$612
• After-tax cash flow: $552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 15,563
• Household income: $54,197
• Rent vs Own: 53.9% rent · 46.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.34%
• Current HPI: 431.7951
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+295.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-01 Listed $149,900 WNYREIS
• 2009-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records
• 2009-12-23 Sold (MLS) $13,000 WNYREIS
• 2009-06-30 Listed $15,000 WNYREIS
• 1998-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $37,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $241 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.