1940 CR 428 · Lake Panasoffkee, FL 33538

$109,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 658 sqft · Manufactured public records · 136 Days on market

Built 1986 8,800 sqft lot Est $80k · 37% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated 2/1 Lake Panasoffkee home with a newer metal roof. Improvements include NEW flooring, NEW fresh paint on the interior and exterior, UPDATED bathroom with tile shower, and NEW fans and lighting. This home offers covered back and front porches! Plenty of space to relax or sip a cup of coffee. Split plan with open Kitchen and Living area. Back yard is fenced and has a small storage shed. Affordable living where you OWN the land - NO HOA/NO CDD/NO FLOOD ZONE!!! Seller will consider owner financing. Located near Lake Panasoffkee, The Withlacoochee River, shopping, local restaurants, public boat ramps, golfing, and entertainment. Near I-75 and Turnpike for access to Tampa, Orland and Florida's beaches. Call today for your appointment to view!

Key facts

• New fresh paint
• New flooring
• Newer metal roof

Tags

• NEWER METAL ROOF
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW FRESH PAINT
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• TILE SHOWER
• COVERED BACK PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential manufactured home (single wide); Lot size about 0.2 acres (0 to less than 1/4 acre); One septic system; Universal property ID available
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Unfurnished
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One story; Faces southwest
• Construction: Metal siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built for a living area of approximately 658 square feet
• Exterior features: Covered, screened porch/patio; Level, paved lot; Public maintained paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Split bedroom layout; 4 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located outside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $293 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 5.1% in Lake Panasoffkee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#332 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($760 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $110k implies a 266% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.42%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $80,276
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1575 CR 434	0.37mi	2/1.5	672 (+2%)	0mo	$82,000	$122	77
1674 CR 434	0.27mi	2/1.0	616 (-6%)	12mo	$70,000	$114	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $43,862
• Equity at exit: $62,195

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.79×
• Total profit: $116,472
• Equity at exit: $107,270

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33538

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,225 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $635/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $854

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $355	-5% $324	+0% $293	+5% $262	+10% $231
Rent	-10% $196	-5% $244	+0% $293	+5% $341	+10% $390
Rate	-1.0pp $348	-0.5pp $321	base $293	+0.5pp $264	+1.0pp $235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2248 CR 446 Lake Panasoffkee, FL	1.0	1.0	650	$1,225	$1.88	22d	1	0.49mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $109,900 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,900 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,900 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $109,900 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,900 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,900 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $109,900 Active 116 DOM
16. 2026-04-20
    price $109,900 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (801 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Updated 2/1 Lake Panasoffkee home with a newer metal roof. Improvements include NEW flooring, NEW fresh paint on the interior and exterior, UPDATED bathroom with tile shower, and NEW fans and lighting. This home offers covered back and front porches! Plenty of space to relax or sip a cup of coffee. Split plan with open Kitchen and Living area. Back yard is fenced and has a small storage shed. Affordable living where you OWN the land - NO HOA/NO CDD/NO FLOOD ZONE!!! Seller may consider owner financing. Located near Lake Panasoffkee, The Withlacoochee River, shopping, local restaurants, public boat ramps, golfing, and entertainment. Near I-75 and Turnpike for access to Tampa, Orland and Florida's beaches. Call today for your appointment to view!

17. 2026-04-20
    price $109,900 801-char remark

    Show marketing remark (801 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Updated 2/1 Lake Panasoffkee home with a newer metal roof. Improvements include NEW flooring, NEW fresh paint on the interior and exterior, UPDATED bathroom with tile shower, and NEW fans and lighting. This home offers covered back and front porches! Plenty of space to relax or sip a cup of coffee. Split plan with open Kitchen and Living area. Back yard is fenced and has a small storage shed. Affordable living where you OWN the land - NO HOA/NO CDD/NO FLOOD ZONE!!! Seller may consider owner financing. Located near Lake Panasoffkee, The Withlacoochee River, shopping, local restaurants, public boat ramps, golfing, and entertainment. Near I-75 and Turnpike for access to Tampa, Orland and Florida's beaches. Call today for your appointment to view!

18. 2026-04-20
    price $109,900

    Show marketing remark (801 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Updated 2/1 Lake Panasoffkee home with a newer metal roof. Improvements include NEW flooring, NEW fresh paint on the interior and exterior, UPDATED bathroom with tile shower, and NEW fans and lighting. This home offers covered back and front porches! Plenty of space to relax or sip a cup of coffee. Split plan with open Kitchen and Living area. Back yard is fenced and has a small storage shed. Affordable living where you OWN the land - NO HOA/NO CDD/NO FLOOD ZONE!!! Seller may consider owner financing. Located near Lake Panasoffkee, The Withlacoochee River, shopping, local restaurants, public boat ramps, golfing, and entertainment. Near I-75 and Turnpike for access to Tampa, Orland and Florida's beaches. Call today for your appointment to view!

19. 2026-02-03
    listed $114,500 Active 754-char remark

    Show marketing remark (801 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Updated 2/1 Lake Panasoffkee home with a newer metal roof. Improvements include NEW flooring, NEW fresh paint on the interior and exterior, UPDATED bathroom with tile shower, and NEW fans and lighting. This home offers covered back and front porches! Plenty of space to relax or sip a cup of coffee. Split plan with open Kitchen and Living area. Back yard is fenced and has a small storage shed. Affordable living where you OWN the land - NO HOA/NO CDD/NO FLOOD ZONE!!! Seller may consider owner financing. Located near Lake Panasoffkee, The Withlacoochee River, shopping, local restaurants, public boat ramps, golfing, and entertainment. Near I-75 and Turnpike for access to Tampa, Orland and Florida's beaches. Call today for your appointment to view!

20. 2026-02-03
    listed $114,500 Active 801-char remark

    Show marketing remark (801 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Updated 2/1 Lake Panasoffkee home with a newer metal roof. Improvements include NEW flooring, NEW fresh paint on the interior and exterior, UPDATED bathroom with tile shower, and NEW fans and lighting. This home offers covered back and front porches! Plenty of space to relax or sip a cup of coffee. Split plan with open Kitchen and Living area. Back yard is fenced and has a small storage shed. Affordable living where you OWN the land - NO HOA/NO CDD/NO FLOOD ZONE!!! Seller may consider owner financing. Located near Lake Panasoffkee, The Withlacoochee River, shopping, local restaurants, public boat ramps, golfing, and entertainment. Near I-75 and Turnpike for access to Tampa, Orland and Florida's beaches. Call today for your appointment to view!

21. 2026-02-03
    listed $114,500 Active

    Show marketing remark (801 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Updated 2/1 Lake Panasoffkee home with a newer metal roof. Improvements include NEW flooring, NEW fresh paint on the interior and exterior, UPDATED bathroom with tile shower, and NEW fans and lighting. This home offers covered back and front porches! Plenty of space to relax or sip a cup of coffee. Split plan with open Kitchen and Living area. Back yard is fenced and has a small storage shed. Affordable living where you OWN the land - NO HOA/NO CDD/NO FLOOD ZONE!!! Seller may consider owner financing. Located near Lake Panasoffkee, The Withlacoochee River, shopping, local restaurants, public boat ramps, golfing, and entertainment. Near I-75 and Turnpike for access to Tampa, Orland and Florida's beaches. Call today for your appointment to view!

22. 2025-08-31
    historical
23. 2025-08-31
    historical
24. 2025-06-23
    price $114,500
25. 2025-06-23
    listed $114,500 Active
26. 2025-04-08
    price $115,000
27. 2025-04-01
    status Active
28. 2025-04-01
    historical
29. 2025-03-31
    historical
30. 2024-09-25
    price $135,000
31. 2024-09-25
    price $135,000
32. 2024-09-25
    status Active
33. 2024-09-25
    price $135,000
34. 2024-09-25
    status Active
35. 2024-09-24
    historical
36. 2024-09-23
    historical
37. 2024-06-01
    price $139,000
38. 2024-06-01
    price $139,000
39. 2024-06-01
    price $139,000
40. 2024-05-23
    price $139,900
41. 2024-05-23
    price $139,900
42. 2024-05-23
    price $139,900
43. 2024-05-11
    price $148,500
44. 2024-05-11
    price $148,500
45. 2024-04-11
    price $149,900
46. 2024-04-11
    price $149,900
47. 2024-04-11
    price $149,900
48. 2024-03-23
    listed $159,900 Active
49. 2024-03-23
    listed $159,900 Active
50. 2018-08-15
    soldstatus $30,000 Sold

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $635 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $912 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$277/yr (+$23/mo · 43.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$635
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,176
• − Management: −$1,176
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $1,811
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$435
• After-tax cash flow: $3,078/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Panasoffkee

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #5777

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Panasoffkee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,748

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.99%
• Current HPI: 329.8431
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+272.5% since first listed

42 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $109,900 HCAR
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $109,900 RACC
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $109,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Listed $114,500 HCAR
• 2026-02-03 Listed $114,500 RACC
• 2026-02-03 Listed $114,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $114,500 HCAR
• 2025-06-23 Listed $114,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $115,000 HCAR
• 2025-04-01 Relisted — HCAR
• 2025-04-01 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2025-03-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-25 Price Changed $135,000 HCAR
• 2024-09-25 Price Changed $135,000 RACC
• 2024-09-25 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-25 Price Changed $135,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-25 Relisted — HCAR
• 2024-09-24 Listing Removed — HCAR
• 2024-09-23 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-01 Price Changed $139,000 HCAR
• 2024-06-01 Price Changed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-01 Price Changed $139,000 RACC
• 2024-05-23 Price Changed $139,900 HCAR
• 2024-05-23 Price Changed $139,900 RACC
• 2024-05-23 Price Changed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-11 Price Changed $148,500 HCAR
• 2024-05-11 Price Changed $148,500 RACC
• 2024-04-11 Price Changed $149,900 HCAR
• 2024-04-11 Price Changed $149,900 RACC
• 2024-04-11 Price Changed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-23 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-23 Listed $159,900 HCAR
• 2018-08-15 Sold (MLS) $30,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-14 Price Changed $38,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-29 Price Changed $39,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-24 Listed $39,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-27 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-12-12 Listed $29,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+14.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $635 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.