1616 Baron Ln · Howe, TX 75459

$237,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,630 sqft · SingleFamily · 21 Days on market

Built 2026 5,358 sqft lot $146/sqft · 19% below area Est $294k · 19% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR - Luella Crossing - Sentosa Floorplan

Key facts

• 5,358 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Green/energy efficient features included for appliances, construction, doors, enhanced air filtration, insulation, low-flow commode, mechanical fresh air, rain/freeze sensors, thermostat, and windows; Water conservation: low-flow fixtures
• Financial info: Listing terms include Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA Loan, and VA Loan
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Annual association fee of $500; Association includes full use of facilities and management fees; HOA managed by Blue Hawk Mgmt

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (approximately 20' wide x 18' deep); 2 covered parking spaces; Garage faces front; No carport spaces
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Curbs and sidewalks; Municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; New construction (incomplete, 2026); Property attached: Yes; Subdivision: Noble Ridge; Facing information not provided
• Construction: Brick and fiber cement exterior; Composition roof; New construction (2026)
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Wood fencing; Landscaped yard; Sprinkler system

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Natural stone/granite countertops; Built-in cabinets; Kitchen island; Walk-in pantry; Water line to refrigerator; Vented exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on one level); Primary bedroom with dual sinks, linen closet and walk-in closet
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s); ENERGY STAR qualified equipment
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Kitchen island; Pantry; Built-in features; Decorative lighting; Cable TV available; High speed internet available; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-218 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#368 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Howe ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #180 of 826 in TX (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Summit Hill El (358 students, 69% FRL); Howe Middle (math 40% / reading 45%, grade D-, #553 of 1,662 statewide, top 34%, 292 students, 49% FRL); Howe H S (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C, #333 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 352 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $185,940 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.92%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $293,579
• List price: $237,999
• Delta: -18.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1625 Elliot Rd	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,656 (+2%)	2mo	$225,399	$136	89
1808 Douglas St	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,666 (+2%)	1mo	$249,000	$149	88
1504 Elliott Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,621 (-1%)	2mo	$243,999	$151	84
1317 Elliott Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,589 (-2%)	1mo	$268,490	$169	79
904 Cole St	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,461 (-10%)	1mo	$232,999	$159	74
916 Cole St	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,867 (+14%)	1mo	$267,999	$144	72
900 Cole St	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,867 (+14%)	2mo	$272,999	$146	72
905 Cole St	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,867 (+14%)	1mo	$260,549	$140	71
1640 Elliott Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,451 (-11%)	1mo	$216,199	$149	70
1616 Elliott Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,461 (-10%)	2mo	$223,999	$153	69
1629 Elliott Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,451 (-11%)	2mo	$219,999	$152	69
1325 Elliott Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,429 (-12%)	1mo	$258,990	$181	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-52,386
• Equity at exit: $35,486

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-63,263
• Equity at exit: $20,578

Cash invested: $66,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75459

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,859 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$297 /mo · $3,570/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,135

Max offer price $206,478

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-53	-5% $-136	+0% $-218	+5% $-300	+10% $-382
Rent	-10% $-365	-5% $-291	+0% $-218	+5% $-144	+10% $-71
Rate	-1.0pp $-98	-0.5pp $-157	base $-218	+0.5pp $-280	+1.0pp $-342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,500
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1625 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$1,950	$1.18	45d	1	0.14mi
1629 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,800	$1.24	45d	1	0.14mi
1632 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,800	$1.23	23d	1	0.14mi
1636 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$1,950	$1.18	45d	1	0.14mi
1520 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	4.0	2.0	1810	$2,100	$1.16	45d	1	0.18mi
1317 Kennedy Rd Howe, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,795	$1.12	45d	1	0.22mi
1810 Clegg St Howe, TX	4.0	2.0	1658	$1,595	$0.96	23d	1	0.22mi
1301 Elliott Rd Howe, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,850	$1.16	23d	1	0.27mi
406 N Denny St Unit B Howe, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,599	$1.00	45d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 44-char remark
2. 2026-04-28
   price $237,999 44-char remark
3. 2026-04-23
   listed $231,999 Active 44-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,313
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,332
• − Property taxes: −$3,570
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,785
• − Management: −$1,785
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$6,924
• Taxable loss: −$6,776
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,626
• After-tax cash flow: $-988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Howe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823670
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $60,164
• Composite: 42.92/100
• National rank: #3119
• State rank: #180 of 826 in TX

Livability — Howe

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #368
• US rank: #7804

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Howe, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,620

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.75%
• Current HPI: 249.7211
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $237,999 NTREIS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $231,999 NTREIS