10224 W Southern Breeze Ave · San Carlos, TX 78541

$100,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,353 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 222 Days on market

Built 1994 7,779 sqft lot $42/sqft · 61% below area ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here is a spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 2,300+ square feet of potential in a rapidly growing area right off Highway 107. Whether you're an investor looking for your next flip, or a buyer ready to bring your vision to life, this property is packed with opportunity. Enjoy a generous floor plan, large lot, and prime location just minutes from schools, shopping, and the expanding East Edinburg corridor.

Key facts

• 7,779 sq ft lot
• Built 1994
• Listed 222 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($780/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,296 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Edinburg CISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #699 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 515 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 222 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 222 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.30%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,850
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -61.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10224 W Southern Breeze Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	2,353 (0%)	0mo	$100,000	$42	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-13,130
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-10,383
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78541

• Home prices YoY: -7.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 515
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,237 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,327/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,154

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-14
   status $100,000 Pending 222 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Option 222 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Option 220 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Option 218 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $100,000 Option 217 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $100,000 Active 213 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $100,000 Active 212 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $100,000 Active 211 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $100,000 Active 210 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 209 DOM
11. 2026-02-26
    status Active 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    Here is a spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 2,300+ square feet of potential in a rapidly growing area right off Highway 107. Whether you're an investor looking for your next flip, or a buyer ready to bring your vision to life, this property is packed with opportunity. Enjoy a generous floor plan, large lot, and prime location just minutes from schools, shopping, and the expanding East Edinburg corridor.

12. 2026-02-18
    status Pending 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    Here is a spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 2,300+ square feet of potential in a rapidly growing area right off Highway 107. Whether you're an investor looking for your next flip, or a buyer ready to bring your vision to life, this property is packed with opportunity. Enjoy a generous floor plan, large lot, and prime location just minutes from schools, shopping, and the expanding East Edinburg corridor.

13. 2026-02-14
    historical Option 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    Here is a spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 2,300+ square feet of potential in a rapidly growing area right off Highway 107. Whether you're an investor looking for your next flip, or a buyer ready to bring your vision to life, this property is packed with opportunity. Enjoy a generous floor plan, large lot, and prime location just minutes from schools, shopping, and the expanding East Edinburg corridor.

14. 2025-12-03
    price $100,000 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    Here is a spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 2,300+ square feet of potential in a rapidly growing area right off Highway 107. Whether you're an investor looking for your next flip, or a buyer ready to bring your vision to life, this property is packed with opportunity. Enjoy a generous floor plan, large lot, and prime location just minutes from schools, shopping, and the expanding East Edinburg corridor.

15. 2025-11-10
    price $110,000 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    Here is a spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 2,300+ square feet of potential in a rapidly growing area right off Highway 107. Whether you're an investor looking for your next flip, or a buyer ready to bring your vision to life, this property is packed with opportunity. Enjoy a generous floor plan, large lot, and prime location just minutes from schools, shopping, and the expanding East Edinburg corridor.

16. 2025-10-24
    listed $115,000 Active 413-char remark

    Show marketing remark (413 chars)

    Here is a spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offering 2,300+ square feet of potential in a rapidly growing area right off Highway 107. Whether you're an investor looking for your next flip, or a buyer ready to bring your vision to life, this property is packed with opportunity. Enjoy a generous floor plan, large lot, and prime location just minutes from schools, shopping, and the expanding East Edinburg corridor.

17. 2010-12-17
    soldstatus
18. 1998-03-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,327 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,327 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AH · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,841
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$2,327
• − Insurance: −$2,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,187
• − Management: −$1,187
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable loss: −$696
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$167
• After-tax cash flow: $947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edinburg CISD
• NCES district ID: 4818180
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $36,985
• Composite: 22.42/100
• National rank: #8114
• State rank: #699 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Carlos

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1296
• US rank: #22514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Carlos, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 51,710
• Household income: $52,863
• Rent vs Own: 47.0% rent · 53.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1963.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 88% Two or more races 49% White 8% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 24% English-only · Spanish 73% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.63%
• Current HPI: 215.1057
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.01%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Relisted — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-02-18 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2026-02-14 Contingent — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $100,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $110,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $115,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2010-12-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,327 · +19.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.